Bowl Projections 2014: Predictions for College Football Playoff Before Week 11

Week 11 of the college football season brings a whopping six matchups between ranked teams, as the playoff picture could receive a significant shake-up.  Given that the field of contenders is already thinning, it is possible that we could see a clear-cut group of four teams hold the pole position after Saturday's action.

Then again, upsets could just begin the cycle anew and create even more chaos.  Top SEC and Pac-12 contenders are facing tricky road contests, while the Big 10 and Big 12 are essentially conducting elimination games between two of their top contenders.

Thus, Saturday's action is likely to change our perception of the playoff field.  For now, though, let's take a step back and predict the current field, as well as the game with the biggest playoff implications.

Projected Playoff Field

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Auburn

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Mississippi State

This is a prediction of how the rest of the season will play out, not where things should currently stand.  Despite a pair of shaky outings against ACC foes Louisville and Clemson this season, the Florida State Seminoles still look like the clear-cut team to beat.  

Though the Seminoles still face Florida, the weak Costal division should make the ACC title game a mere formality, thus punching Florida State's ticket to the semis.

Auburn is just as talented as Florida State, as it actually tops Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index.  But the SEC has cannibalized itself the whole season, and with one loss already in hand, the Tigers have no margin for error against a brutal schedule:

Nevertheless, with the weakness of the other conferences, it's not hard to envision the SEC receiving two teams.  Undefeated Mississippi State can likely absorb one loss—fortunate considering that they still visit Tuscaloosa and Oxford, not to mention a potential SEC Championship game against Florida or Georgia.

If the Bulldogs survive and give the SEC two teams, the Oregon Ducks currently look like the favorites to jump up in the field.  Oregon finally got over the Stanford hump last week, though a tough Pac-12 championship game against either Arizona State or UCLA does loom (not to mention a tricky road trip to Utah this weekend).  

Nevertheless, behind an improved defense and increasingly healthy offensive line, Marcus Mariota and Co. look like the class of the conference.

Game of the Week: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 9 Arizona State

Though other contests like Alabama-LSU and Ohio State-Michigan State may hold more cache and generate bigger TV ratings, the game in Tempe actually holds the greatest playoff implications.  Both the Fighting Irish and Sun Devils are one-loss teams sitting on the periphery of the postseason picture, but a marquee win could vault them into serious consideration for the final four.

The matchup will pit two of the nation's best quarterbacks in Everett Golson and Taylor Kelly.  However, expecting fireworks might be folly.  

The Sun Devils have employed a heavy pressure defense that utilizes plenty of blitzes, and against Florida State this season, Golson struggled when the Seminoles sent blitzers through the interior A- and B-gaps:

Kelly's issues could stem from rustiness more than scheme.  After missing three games following surgery on his right foot, Kelly has appeared rusty.  

The Arizona State signal-caller has completed just 56.1 percent of his passes for just 6.75 yards per attempt in two games since his return.  Additionally, Kelly's mobility has appeared impaired, resulting in more negative dropbacks:

This is not to disparage the two quarterbacks, but rather to show how both Notre Dame and Arizona State are underrated and complete teams.  

Both teams likely need a bit of help to realistically challenge for the four-team playoff, but notching a win against a fellow top-10 opponent would be the type of signature victory that would stand out to the committee at season's end.