Are the Vancouver Canucks Legit? Buying or Selling the Canucks' Hot Start

Let me admit off the top that this piece could be coming from a place of mild bias. I had the Vancouver Canucks finishing the season with 77 points, so clearly I had lower expectations than most for a team that has a 10-4-0 record in early November.

The Canucks would have to go 25-36-7 or something thereabouts for them to land on 77 points, and I don't see that happening.

But I do think, based on a closer look at their start, the Canucks aren't a playoff team in a difficult Western Conference and should finish with around 85 points.

Let's look at their 10 wins this season and the quality of those opponents.

Date	Opponent	Record	Score	Fenwick close
10/8	at Calgary	8-5-2	4-2	45.8
10/11	vs. Edmonton	4-8-1	5-4, SO	48.8
10/17	at Edmonton	4-8-1	2-0	48.8
10/23	at St. Louis	9-3-1	4-1	52.1
10/26	vs. Washington	4-5-3	4-2	54.9
10/28	vs. Carolina	3-6-2	4-1	48.8
10/30	vs. Montreal	9-4-1	3-2, OT	49.6
11/1	at Edmonton	4-8-1	3-2	48.8
11/4	at Colorado	4-6-5	5-2	44.5
11/6	at San Jose	7-5-2	3-2	50.2

As you can see, they've taken care of business against some bad teams. Save for their convincing win against the well-rested St. Louis Blues, who had three days off before that game, the Canucks have feasted on teams that are below-average possession clubs.

Considering there are only 11 teams below 50 percent in Fenwick close this season, it's quite fortunate that the Canucks have amassed 12 of their 20 points against those teams. The Sharks only moved above 50 percent after Thursday night, when they out-attempted the Canucks 70-20 (!) at even strength in a 3-2 regulation loss, so you could say 14 of their 20 points have come against possession-deficient clubs.

Even with a particularly soft schedule in terms of teams that aren't all that great at five-on-five, the Canucks have been outscored 30-29 at five-on-five this season.

The Canucks are 15th in Fenwick close at 51 percent. They will play 31 of their final 68 games against teams that are currently ahead of them in that category and 40 games against teams that are above 50 percent. Against those teams above 50 percent, the Canucks are 3-3 this season.

Those 40 remaining games don't include five games against the Los Angeles Kings, who are sitting at an uncharacteristically low 47.9 percent in Fenwick close.

The layups won't come as frequently for the Canucks as the season progresses.

But what of the players who have helped generate this hot start and stretch of six wins in seven games?

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Goaltender Ryan Miller has been worth the $6 million cap hit, with a 10-1-0 record and 2.20/.920 split. A red flag that is synonymous with teams playing over their heads is a goaltender playing out of his mind, but with a career .915 save percentage, it's not as though Miller is playing at an unsustainable level through six weeks.

But he may be playing too often for this type of play to last for long.

Miller is 34 years old, young in the real world but old in the hockey world. So the fact that he's on pace to make 65 starts, his most since 2010-11, isn't necessarily a good thing for the Canucks, considering how dramatically he fell apart at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Through his first 39 starts with the Sabres last season, Miller had a .923 save percentage; in his final 20 starts, all but one coming with the St. Louis Blues, he dipped to .906 before posting an .897 in a six-game playoff loss to the Chicago Blackhawks.

There's still plenty of time for coach Willie Desjardins to lighten the load for Miller, but if Eddie Lack (0-3, 4.19/.875) doesn't improve, Desjardins may have no choice but to lean on Miller.

That's not good for the long-term success of the Canucks.

Offensively, there's good and bad.

Jeff Vinnick/Getty Images

The good is the Sedins don't look like the red-headed corpses that they were under John Tortorella last season. Henrik has five goals and 10 assists, Daniel has three goals and 11 assists, and Radim Vrbata has meshed nicely on the top line with six goals and seven assists. There's nothing in those players' track records that says we should expect a steep drop-off from those numbers.

Beyond that, it's dicey.

My reasoning for being down on the Canucks before the season, more than anything, was their lack of scoring beyond the top line. That reasoning has been punched in the face by Nick Bonino, whose seven goals in 14 games put him on pace for 41 this season.

That's a pace of 41 goals for a player who has never scored more than 22 in a season, which occurred last season. Bonino has scored on 21.2 percent of his shots this season; he was an 11.1 percent shooter entering this season.

There are a lot of things in life that can't last—the enjoyability of Seinfeld reruns, your favorite T-shirt (damn washers and dryers) and now this goal-scoring pace from the speedy Bonino.

Beyond those four players, there's not a lot of reason to think there's enough secondary scoring to keep the Canucks going for 82 games. In a Western Conference filled mostly with teams that have two established, consistent scoring lines and in some cases a third, it's hard to imagine how the Canucks will keep up with those opponents.

Linden Vey has four goals on 11 shots, so good luck with maintaining that 36.4 shooting percentage. Brad Richardson and Jannik Hansen have three goals apiece, which has them on pace for right around their usual totals in the low-teens. Chris Higgins, Zack Kassian and Alex Burrows have two goals each.

It may not manifest in an extended losing streak and it's probably more likely the decline is so gradual that it won't be evident until the final quarter of the season, but it's very likely the Canucks aren't anywhere nearly as good as their 10-4 start.

There are always one or two teams that can defy the odds (and the math) over 82 games, but they usually have a host of elite scorers (Philadelphia in 2013-14) or elite goaltending (Colorado in 2013-14) that carry the day.

As a team with one deadly line and a goaltender in his mid-30s, it's not likely that the 2014-15 Canucks can pull off the surprise playoff berth.

All statistics via NHL.com or stats.hockeyanalysis.com.

Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.