Duke Basketball: Five Burning Questions for Upcoming Season

Duke has begun full-time practice and recently dominated its first exhibition game against the Blue Bears of Livingstone College. Duke walked over an overmatched opponent, with each of the 10 Blue Devil players having some shining moments.

Many fans are wisely slow to draw conclusions from such a lopsided match early in the season, but keep in mind that Duke’s weak defense reared its head in last season’s exhibition games. Holding Livingstone to 58 points while scoring 115 does not mean Duke will be a defensive juggernaut, but it did show that the team is capable of shutting down a lesser foe—something the Blue Devils often failed to do last year.

With Duke’s first regular season game (November 14 against Presbyterian College) quickly approaching, there are still a lot of mysteries surrounding this year’s squad. The exhibition game was thrilling, and the crowd in Cameron was pumped, but it may have brought up more questions for the fans than answers. Here are some of the questions that should be gracing the minds of Devils fans as they gear up for the season.

Will the Parts Make a Whole?

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Last year, the team had enormous talent, but the skills were too redundant. Many thought having so many talented players who did the same things well would be an advantage, but it didn’t turn out that way. Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood and Rasheed Sulaimon all had similar (and at times, competing) perimeter scoring skills. Quinn Cook forgot how to play point guard as the team went to an isolation offense. And Amile Jefferson was the one solid role player.

This year’s team looks like it will be more well-rounded, based on personnel alone. Jahlil Okafor is an old-school big, Tyus Jones is a pure point guard and Matt Jones should play more as a solid shooting guard and defender who does not need the ball in his hands long to be effective. Duke usually has players playing out of position, but this year the team has players who naturally fit at all five spots. The challenge will be turning them into a cohesive unit during games.

What Will the Rotation Be?

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Duke’s versatile players gives the team the ability to play many different types of lineups. Coach K has been pretty conservative with his substituting in the past, but if Duke’s exhibition game was any indication, he may be willing to mix it up more this year.

Duke used a platoon system in the first half of the game. Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Justise Winslow, Jefferson and Okafor started, then they gave way to Cook, Sulaimon, Grayson Allen, Semi Ojeleye and Marshall Plumlee. Coach K gave both units two stretches of about five minutes, and each showed why it could be successful. The first team played solidly and defensively and ran the offense through Okafor. The second unit gave Cook and Sulaimon a chance to thrive as the primary scorers on the floor.

In the second half, the substitutions were more fluid, but the group that started the half (Tyus Jones, Cook, Sulaimon, Winslow and Okafor) stood out as an extremely effective offensive unit that could be used to close out games.

The lineup could also see fluctuation in the backcourt, where Matt Jones will have to prove himself as a capable shooter in order to keep Sulaimon and Cook behind him. Speaking of those two—will they accept coming off the bench or pout and let it affect their play? Cook played well in the exhibition, but Sulaimon did not and saw only 14 minutes (let’s not even get into it). If either of those two goes rogue, they could see a lot of the bench.

Duke usually has shorter rotations than most schools, and Allen and Ojeleye are the players most likely to see themselves without regular playing time.

There are a lot of questions about who will play and how much, but the team does not have much time to figure out its best lineups, as it will play Michigan State on November 18.

Who Will Be the Crunch-Time Scorer?

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Duke will need someone to step up in crucial moments this year if the team wants to win the ACC and earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The team has options, as Okafor is an extremely efficient scorer and Sulaimon proved his ability to hit clutch shots last season. Despite Sulaimon’s personal success, Duke often faltered in key moments last year when players took turns playing “hero ball” while other teams went on big runs.

Duke’s players last year certainly were not the first to turn to isolation plays late in the game. Many teams feature one-on-one play when in need of a late bucket. Despite this popular strategy, the best way for a team to score clutch baskets is to score the same way they do for the rest of the game—and Tyus Jones can help Duke do just that.

Jones is a heady player who keeps the entire team in the right position and in the right frame of mind. He will pass to the open player, run the best play for the situation and make sure everyone on the team is involved. This will keep defenses from keying in on one player or play, and Duke will be able to avoid the lapses that have cost the team in recent years. With Jones running the team, Duke’s crunch-time scorer will be whichever player is open.

Will the Defense and Rebounding Improve?

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Last year, Duke was doomed by its inability to put the clamps on foes. The Blue Devils often gave up offensive rebounds when they forced an opponent to miss. Everyone remembers Duke falling to Mercer to end an underachieving season, but Duke allowed Vermont to score 90 points during the opening weeks.

Last year, Duke wanted to use its athleticism to become a high-pressure team that forced turnovers. That strategy was undone by the new hand-checking rule, and the team had no shot blockers to defend the paint once dribblers penetrated the defense. This year, the team is bigger and, therefore, many think they won’t be so easy to score against and rebound over (but it is yet to be seen if size can translate into on-court success).

The defense will most likely struggle at times again this season. Okafor is not known as a great shot-blocker, and no one else on the team has much of a chance to change shots in the lane. The perimeter D should improve with Matt Jones playing more (and with Winslow in the mix), but Duke’s strength will once again be offense.

Duke should be a much better defensive-rebounding team this year, however, and it is mostly due to the new front line. Okafor is huge and strong, capable of getting solid rebounding position even if he is yet to understand the nuances of blocking out. Jefferson proved last year that he is capable of rebounding against bigger players at center and should have more success this year going against power forwards. Winslow shares Jefferson’s ferocity for hitting the boards and adds top-notch strength and athleticism for his position. He had seven rebounds against Livingstone—and many of them were made spectacularly above the rim. With solid rebounding all across the forward position, Duke will be much better suited to clean up the boards this year.

How Good Will Justise Winslow Be?

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The seven rebounds were not the only impressive part of Winslow’s performance against Livingstone. He scored 19 points, showed off a shooting stroke that was better than expected and flashed an ability to handle the ball (including one play where he ripped down a rebound, pushed the ball up court and threw an on-target alley-oop to Okafor for a jam). Seen live in Cameron, his combination of athleticism and high basketball IQ were impressive. He stood out.

There were impressive performances from other Duke players. Tyus Jones had 11 assists and one turnover, Matt Jones hit four threes in the first half and Allen got hot in the second half, but “Chief” Justise was the best player on the court.

Winslow brings toughness and versatility that will allow Duke to shape its lineups, depending on the situation. He is a strong player who will be able to play either forward position and also play D against shooting guards. He has the ability to be a secondary ball handler if Duke wants to go big. His skill set could make Winslow the type of two-way force Duke has not had in a long time (or ever?).

Coming into the year, Okafor and Tyus Jones have been getting all the press as Duke’s star freshmen, but Winslow may end up being just as good and important for the team as those two. It will be exciting to see him develop as the season gets started.