Ranking the Most Likely Cinderellas in the 2014-15 NCAA Basketball Season

The 2014-15 NCAA basketball season hasn't even begun yet, but Georgia State is already profiling as the most likely Cinderella team for the tournament.

It's never too early to start searching for Cinderella teams. We spend the entire season thinking about what various games tell us about contenders for the national title, but the same can be true for potential Sweet 16 crashers.

Based on the criteria described on the following slide, we went searching for possible Cinderella teams.

Long story short, veteran teams that force a lot of steals and rely pretty heavily on individual players for assists and three-pointers are the sleepers we're seeking.

Statistics on the following slides courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.

Criteria Considered

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We came up with these six criteria just a little over one year ago, but ended up nominating five candidates who didn't make the tournament.

However, the article wasn't a complete failure, because it totally pinpointed Mercer as a prime candidate for at least one upset—even though we failed to realize it until after the fact.

Based on the similarities between Davidson (2008), Butler (2010), VCU (2011), Wichita State (2013) and Florida Gulf Coast (2013) when they made their magical tournament runs, these are the criteria we considered:

1) A point guard who averages at least 4.0 assists per game.

2) Minimum of one three-point shooter who attempts at least 160 three-pointers while shooting better than 35.0 percent. More attempts and higher percentages are even better.

3) Minimum of 6.75 steals per game.

4) Minimum of three quality nonconference games.

5) An ample supply of upperclassmen who play at least 20 minutes per game.

6) Cannot play in a major conference (most important criterion).

Not all five former Cinderellas met all six criteria, but they each met at least five while also well exceeding the minimum in one of the categories.

As far as Mercer goes, the Bears didn't quite reach the steals threshold (5.9 per game), but they had five seniors who played at least 21 minutes per game, a point guard (Langston Hall) who averaged 5.6 assists per game, two three-point shooters (Hall and Bud Thomas) who more than met the triples criterion and played nonconference games against Oklahoma, Texas, Ole Miss and Seton Hall.

We could have seen their win over Duke coming! If only we had heeded our own advice!

Honorable Mentions

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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is popular preseason sleeper pick that may spend time this year ranked in the AP Top 25. However, the Bulldogs lost a lot of seniors, don't have any prolific three-point shooters and play a pretty weak nonconference schedule.

Kenneth "Speedy" Smith might be the best point guard in the country, but even his 7.7 assists per game and contributions to the team's 9.2 steals per game weren't enough to make Louisiana Tech qualify.

Green Bay Phoenix

This was the toughest exclusion from the list, if only because I was one of Green Bay's biggest supporters last March.

However, this is not a three-point shooting team, and its best three-point shooter from last season (Alec Brown) is also its most noteworthy departure, as the big man averaged 15.3 PPG.

Like Louisiana Tech, the Phoenix have an outstanding point guard (Keifer Sykes, 4.9 APG). But they barely meet the steals criterion (7.2), and their best nonconference games outside of the early tilt against Wisconsin are bubbly teams like Miami (FL) and Georgia State. 

Radford Highlanders

The Highlanders are covered in the three-point department between R.J. Price (77-of-211) and Ya Ya Anderson (82-of-200) and will have a metric ton of important upperclassmen after not graduating a single player who averaged more than 2.2 PPG.

However, their top point guard (Rashun Davis) only averaged 3.5 assists per game last year, they barely meet the steals criterion at 7.1 per game and their top three nonconference opponents are Georgetown, Richmond and TCU.

We might be willing to revisit the Highlanders if they win the woeful Big South, but they're an honorable mention for now.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

This team has a very similar resume to that of Radford, right down to the part about revisiting this profile if it comes out of a weak conference (Southern).

The Buccaneers have a pair of solid three-point shooters in Rashawn Rembert and Lester Wilson. But while they averaged more steals per game (7.7) than Radford, they also lost more this summer with the graduations of Kinard Gadsden-Gilliard (10.9 PPG) and Hunter Harris (9.1 PPG).

East Tennessee State's top assist man (Petey McClain) averaged just 3.4 per game, and the team's nonconference schedule leaves more than a little to be desired, with Tennessee serving as the second-best opponent.

5. Belmont Bruins

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Point Guard: Reece Chamberlain (5.5 APG)
Three-Point Shooter: Craig Bradshaw, 65/164 (39.6 percent)
Steals Per Game: 6.9
Nonconference Foes: VCU, Butler, Denver, Middle Tennessee State
Upperclassmen: Bradshaw (15.7 PPG, Jr.), Chamberlain (10.9 PPG, Sr.)

How many times do we need to talk about the Bruins as a Cinderella team before they actually accomplish something in the tournament? Pretty sure this makes 10 years and counting.

This is a team that meets all of the criteria, except for perhaps the most important one.

Reece Chamberlain and Craig Bradshaw have the Bruins covered in the assist and three-point departments while also combining to average 2.7 steals per game last season. However, they're also the only noteworthy upperclassmen on the team after losing J.J. Mann (18.3 PPG), Drew Windler (10.4 PPG) and Blake Jenkins (8.1 PPG).

Outside of their top two guys, the Bruins will be a very young team.

Perhaps an ACC transfer will be able to help them shoulder the load?

Taylor Barnette played sparingly for Virginia two seasons ago, but he was a three-point assassin through and through. Of his 51 field-goal attempts as a freshman with the Cavaliers, 44 were from three-point range. He made 43.2 percent of those shots.

Mann and Windler combined to shoot 42.1 percent while making 170 three-pointers last season, so Barnette has some pretty big shoes to fill. But it should be fun to watch Belmont's guard-heavy lineup in action this season.

4. Northwestern State Demons

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Point Guard: Jalan West (6.4 APG)
Three-Point Shooter: West, 70/171 (40.9 percent)
Steals Per Game: 8.7
Nonconference Foes: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, Louisiana-Lafayette
Upperclassmen: West (19.4 PPG, Jr.), Marvin Frazier (5.3 PPG, Sr.)

For most of the categories, Northwestern State qualified by a landslide.

The Demons ranked seventh in the nation in steals per game, while Jalan West ranked eighth in assists per game. They play four potential tournament teams in the nonconference and a fifth (Louisiana-Lafayette) that should still be good with Shawn Long on the roster.

If they just had some upperclassmen who did a darn thing last season, we'd be tempted to put the Demons at No. 1.

They had four players average more than 5.5 PPG last season, each putting up more than 13 points per game. Of that quartet, DeQuan Hicks (15.1 PPG) and Brison White (13.1 PPG) were seniors, while Zikiteran Woodley (13.9 PPG) was a freshman.

That leaves West as the only junior or senior who has really proved anything.

As much as we may want to remember Davidson as a one-man show, Stephen Curry had a lot of help from guys like Jason Richards, Andrew Lovedale, Boris Meno and Thomas Sander—each of whom was either a junior or senior during the 2008 NCAA tournament.

Unless a few mystery players really step up for Northwestern State this season, it would take an otherworldly effort from West to carry this team into the tournament—let alone the second weekend of it.

3. Toledo Rockets

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Point Guard: Julius Brown, 6.0 APG
Three-Point Shooter: Brown, 59/166 (35.5 percent)
Steals Per Game: 6.8
Nonconference Foes: Duke, VCU, Oregon, Cleveland State
Upperclassmen: Brown (14.9 PPG, Sr.), Justin Drummond (14.2 PPG, Sr.), J.D. Weatherspoon (10.6 PPG, Sr.), Nathan Boothe (9.2 PPG, Jr.)

After opening the season 12-0 before giving Kansas a run for its money, Toledo's Cinderella stock was through the roof. In addition to the returning upperclassmen listed above, the Rockets also had Rian Pearson averaging 14.6 PPG while leading the team in steals.

But they stumbled through conference play, got wamboozled by Western Michigan in the MAC tournament and subsequently lost to Southern Miss in the first round of the NIT.

If Toledo is going to get back on our good side, it'll need to figure out how to replace Pearson. He played nearly 31 minutes per game and led the team in field-goal attempts.

One option after the first month of the season is Mississippi State transfer Dre Applewhite. He'll sit out until the end of the fall semester, but the 6'5" sophomore guard could be the perfect replacement for Pearson. After all, Pearson spent his freshman season at Green Bay before becoming a scoring machine for Toledo.

Why couldn't Applewhite follow the same arc?

Julius Brown is the real key, though. Arguably a lite version of Northwestern State's Jalan West, the 5'10" point guard led the team in both points and assists last season while serving as Toledo's best three-point weapon. With Pearson out of the picture, Brown will need to elevate his game to another level for Toledo to make some noise in the 2015 NCAA tournament.

2. Oakland Golden Grizzlies

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Point Guard: Kahlil Felder (6.4 APG)
Three-Point Shooter: Dante Williams, 32/89 (36.0 percent)
Steals Per Game: 6.9
Nonconference Foes: Arizona, Michigan State, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Georgia State, Maryland, Clemson, Toledo
Upperclassmen: Corey Petros (13.3 PPG, Sr.), Williams (7.6 PPG, Sr.), Tommie McCune (5.6 PPG, Jr.), Max Hooper (St. John's transfer, Jr.)

If at first you don't succeed?

Led by Travis Bader (20.6 PPG) and Duke Mondy (11.7 PPG), Oakland was our No. 1 Cinderella candidate last November.

The Golden Grizzlies responded by putting together a 13-20 record—the second-worst winning percentage in school history.

And yet, they still profile as one of the top sleepers in the country for a second straight season.

Because Bader attempted an absurd 360 three-pointers last season en route to breaking J.J. Redick's record for career three-point field goals, Oakland doesn't return anyone who thrived from three-point range last season.

That doesn't mean it doesn't have any players capable of making that leap, though.

Dante Williams has been a pretty good shooter in small volumes over the past two seasons, and Max Hooper—unarguably the best basketball name ever—is a gunner after the hearts of both Marshall Henderson and Ethan Wragge. Hooper attempted 65 shots last season for St. John's—62 of which were from three-point range.

Hooper averaged 11.0 three-point attempts per 40 minutes and made 40.3 percent of them. That's eerily similar to Bader's line of 11.6 three-point attempts per 40 minutes and 40.8 percent.

We're not expecting Hooper to show up and drop 20 points per game, but Oakland has a serious chance to do some damage if he's even half the shooting guard that Bader was.

1. Georgia State Panthers

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Point Guard: Ryan Harrow (4.2 APG)
Three-Point Shooter: R.J. Hunter, 100/253 (39.5 percent)
Steals Per Game: 7.6
Nonconference Foes: Iowa State, Green Bay (twice), Colorado State, Southern Miss, Old Dominion
Upperclassmen: Hunter (18.3 PPG, Jr.), Harrow (17.8 PPG, Sr.), Curtis Washington (7.5 PPG, Sr.)

There might not be a sexier sleeper in the entire country.

Not only did Georgia State go 25-9 with a 17-1 record in the Sun Belt conference, but the Panthers' top competition in that conference lost its most important player this offseason when Elfrid Payton jumped to the NBA.

As a result, it seems like everyone is on the Georgia State bandwagon—and with good reason. The Panthers could be the best mid-major this season.

After losing Manny Atkins (14.4 PPG) and Devonta White (11.6 PPG) to graduation, they aren't quite as loaded with noteworthy upperclassmen, but they do bring back the two players who matter most.

In ESPN's countdown of the top 100 players in the country, Ryan Harrow was ranked No. 57 and R.J. Hunter was No. 42. Of Hunter, they wrote, "Hunter (122.0 offensive efficiency rating per Ken Pomeroy) has turned himself into an NBA prospect under his father Ron Hunter's guidance. Forget where he plays because Hunter would be a beast at a Power-5 school too."

Harrow and Hunter might be the best 1-2 backcourt duo in the country. In the entire country, that is. We're not limiting that argument to mid-majors. The pair combined to average more than 36 points per game while playing at a relatively modest pace—particularly when compared to the speed at which Oakland and Northwestern State play.

In addition to being great scorers, Hunter and Harrow were two of the least turnover-prone guards in the country last season. With each of those guards on the court for more than 33 minutes per game, the Panthers had the lowest percentage of turnovers in the nation, according to KenPom.com (subscription required).

It's one thing to be able to create turnovers, but being able to avoid them is just as crucial. As a team, Georgia State finished the year with 260 steals on defense and 275 turnovers on offense. That's a ratio of 0.945 steals per turnover. Louisville (0.946) and VCU (0.914) were the only other teams in the country with a ratio of better than 0.9.

If the Panthers can duplicate that again this season, it will come in very handy in the 2015 NCAA tournament.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.