
Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 10: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops
These are harrowing times in the fantasy football world. Not only are there six teams on a bye—one of only three weeks on the NFL schedule with such a distinction—injuries have plagued a majority of the teams in action.
So here fantasy owners are not only without Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers but possibly Tony Romo, Nick Foles and Chad Henne as well. OK, sure, one of them was a joke (I mean who could ever start Foles, right), but quarterback is supposed to be one of the few reliable spots on a roster. If that level of turmoil is going on there, imagine what's going on elsewhere.
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Case in point: In my Monday rankings, Bobby Rainey came in as a clear top-20 option. It's not even clear whether Rainey will be the Buccaneers' No. 1 option this week. And he plays for the Buccaneers!
That's how dire things are at running back. While wide receiver is saved by the likes of Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and the returns of Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green, the position has kiddie pool-sized depth. Any time you squint, take six swigs of Fireball and say "Dwayne Bowe is worth a flex option," life probably isn't at its best point.
Luckily, there are enough undervalued players available on the waiver wire or sitting on too many benches that Week 10 can be salvaged. At least as long as you follow this advice.
QB: Start Mark Sanchez Over Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill
[Grabs brown paper bag] [Hyperventilates for 20 minutes] [Passes out]
OK, OK, I'm back. Wait, that subheadline says what? Well, I've certainly dug myself a hole with this one. Where to begin, where to begin...
OK, Sanchez. This I can do. Chip Kelly is an offensive savant. He took Nick Foles—who looked dreadful as a rookie and lost a position battle with Michael Vick in camp—and turned him into Peyton Manning for 10 games last season. While Foles has regressed hard toward the mean in 2014, he's remained a sturdy fantasy option.
Based on the small sample of Sanchez's performance after taking over for Foles against Houston and his solid preseason, I don't see a scenario where he's worse than Foles. There was Good Sanchez and Bad Sanchez last week on full display. He completed 15 of 22 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns, including a brilliant deep ball to Jeremy Maclin to set up a 11-yard Jordan Matthews score.
There were the two interceptions, the first of which not being Sanchez's fault and the other being bad enough to give Eagles fans night terrors. In essence: Sanchez was basically 2014 Nick Foles for the last three quarters against a solid Houston defense. Quarterbacks aren't necessarily interchangeable within Kelly's system, but ones of a generally similar skill level like Sanchez and Foles are.

The Eagles host Carolina this week, a potential Sanchizeian bonanza if there's ever going to be one. The Panthers have fallen off a cliff defensively since their 2-0 start, ranking outside the top 20 against the run and pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
Wilson and Tannehill are better players than Sanchez. The former has especially been brilliant of late, putting together perhaps the best all-around performance of his career last week against San Diego.

Doesn't matter. Wilson has been mostly bad since the Percy Harvin trade. He's thrown one touchdown over the last two weeks as Seattle has relied heavily on its defense to provide short fields and easy scoring chances. The Giants don't pose a massive defensive threat, but neither did Carolina or Oakland on paper. There's something amiss with this Seahawks offense, and it runs deeper than whatever supposed mutiny Harvin was running.
Tannehill's a matchup hedge. The Detroit Lions have been the NFL's best first-half defense and have the talent to disrupt Miami's short-yardage attack.
Since nearly being benched after a 1-2 start, Tannehill has completed only six passes traveling 20 yards or more through the air, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has emphasized getting the ball out of Tannehill's hands quickly; the Lions have the personnel to bottle up those short passes.
Running Back: Start Denard Robinson over Frank Gore

Someone needs to tell Gus Bradley to keep Toby Gerhart as far away from the football field as possible. Despite the weird loyalty to Gerhart, who had seven touches last week, Denard Robinson has earned himself a workhorse role in Jacksonville.
The former Michigan quarterback has rushed for 329 yards and two touchdowns since entering the starting lineup, averaging no less than 5.5 yards per carry in any contest. Cleveland and Cincinnati are the NFL's two worst rush defenses, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA, but Robinson actually had his best game on a per-carry basis against a top-10 unit in Miami.
Jacksonville heads to London this week where just about anything can happen, but Rod Marinelli's front seven has begun showing cracks. The Dallas Cowboys are down to 28th in run defense DVOA after a promising start and have allowed three rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks. As it stands now, Robinson won't face an above-average run defense until Week 15 against Baltimore.

Gore has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. The San Francisco 49ers back has rushed for 107 yards over the last three weeks. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since Week 2. Instead of trending upward, San Francisco appears to be imploding. Rumors of Jim Harbaugh's future cloud every result, and it doesn't appear the bye did anything to improve the team's outlook.
Facing the New Orleans Saints is a boost this week. New Orleans is bad at basically everything that has to do with holding opposing teams out of the end zone. The problem is that the 49ers offensive line has been so bad that it's hard to imagine how they're scoring. Colin Kaepernick has been sacked 14 times in the past two games and holes are nonexistent for Gore and Carlos Hyde.
Until the 49ers prove they can move the ball, it's hard to trust anyone on that offense.
Wide Receiver: Start Odell Beckham Jr. Over Brandon Marshall

In four games played, Odell Beckham Jr. has done the following: had one 100-yard game; had one multi-touchdown game; broke one play of 40-plus yards; had three games where he's caught at least four passes.
In eight games played, Brandon Marshall has done the following: had one 100-yard game; had one multi-touchdown game; broke one play of 40-plus yards; had four games where he's caught at least four passes.
I filtered those stats in a certain way because they're so similar, but we can keep this thing going. Beckham averages more receptions, yards and touchdowns than Marshall on a per-game basis. His yards per reception is higher. His wide receiver rating, per PFF, is light-years higher. He's yet to drop a pass while Marshall's drop rate ranks him 59th among receivers with at least 25 percent of their team's snaps.
Even the "Marshall's been injured" excuse doesn't necessarily fly. Beckham missed the entire preseason and the Giants' first four games with a hamstring injury, an extended absence that would typically be death for a rookie wideout. But Victor Cruz's season-ending injury thrust Beckham into the spotlight and he's emerged ahead of Rueben Randle as Eli Manning's top target.
The Giants head to Seattle this week, where uneducated folks will try telling you that Beckham will be matched up one-on-one with Richard Sherman. As anyone who has taken five seconds to study Pete Carroll's defense knows, Sherman does not shadow one receiver. He largely keeps his defensive backs on one side of the field, in Sherman's case the left side.
Beckham will be aligned on Sherman's side at times, but it's not nearly as dire of a matchup as it sounds. The Giants will work Beckham all around the field if they want the ball in his hands. Given what he's done with it so far, odds are they'll make the rudimentary scheme adjustment.
(Note: Not that going against Carroll's defense only requires rudimentary adjustments. Just that it's very self-explanatory what they do and it's not difficult to position your playmakers in such a way that makes the odds better in your favor. They're still terrible. But better.)
| Anthony Dixon | RB | Buffalo Bills | 18 |
| Joique Bell | RB | Detroit Lions | 21 |
| Marques Colston | WR | New Orleans Saints | 30 |
| Eric Decker | WR | New York Jets | 32 |
| Vernon Davis | TE | San Francisco 49ers | 12 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | New Orleans Saints | 9 |
| Bobby Rainey | RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | San Francisco 49ers | 22 |
| Mike Evans | WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 |
| Mychal Rivera | TE | Oakland Raiders | 8 |
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.

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