NFL Odds Week 10: Breaking Down Early Spreads for Entire Schedule

For the second straight week, only 13 games adorn the NFL schedule. By overloading three weeks (4, 9 and 10) with a majority of the byes—more than half the NFL's 32 teams (18 to be exact) count those three Sundays as their off days—the league ensures a bevy of fully loaded Sundays.

It creates internal pressure to have the most action-packed slate possible on those three weeks. In Week 4, well, OK, let's not revisit Week 4. But Week 9 came with Manning vs. Brady XKSDFASFAS (that's the Roman numeral for 7 trillion I think), a Dallas Cowboys-Arizona Cardinals matchup that looked marquee until Tony Romo's injury and the typically reliable Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Week 10, though, promises to be the best of the bunch. Of the 13 games, we can punt intrigue on only three: Cowboys- Jacksonville Jaguars, Steelers-New York Jets and Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders. That trio sees potential playoff teams going on the road to smash the cupcakes in Jacksonville (er, London), New York and Oakland. You can throw on RedZone Channel and see all that's needed there.

The other 10 carry some level of playoff implications. Throwing the Rams into the "playoff" mix might be a stretch, but their ability to play spoiler for two straight weeks adds a certain layer. With San Francisco and Seattle facing much tougher opponents, Arizona could open as much as a three-game lead in the NFC West.

So, yes, we're getting to that time of the year. With that in mind, let's check in on the entire Week 10 slate, highlighting the early oddsmaker lines.

Matchup	Spread
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -7
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pick
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets	PIT -4.5
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints	NO -4.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars* (London)	DAL -7.5
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions	DET -2.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills	Pick
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders	DEN -12.5
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -10
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals	AZ -8
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers	GB -8
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7

Games of Note

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Ben Margot/Associated Press

This would feel like both teams' seasons were on the line, if only the NFC South weren't shaping up as one of the worst divisions in modern football history. The Saints, who are 4-4, are the Indianapolis Colts and Broncos of the NFC in that they are locks to win their division. One might even argue that New Orleans is more likely than Denver given the way Kansas City has played of late.

Nevertheless, this is a must-win for the 49ers, whose season appears to be unraveling. San Francisco's home loss to the Rams last week is inexplicable, the type that Jim Harbaugh-led teams didn't drop during his first three seasons. In fact, with another loss Harbaugh will eclipse his career high for losses in a season as a professional coach.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Not that everyone is quite sure what he's doing in 2014 is "professional" coaching. There is a growing faction who thinks the ongoing Cold War between Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke has created a poisonous locker room atmosphere, which has caused everyone (Harbaugh included) to check out.

"With Jim Harbaugh, there’s a lot of questions out there right now," Hall of Fame receiver Jerry Rice told Sports Illustrated's Pro Football Now. "We don’t really know if he wants to come back and be the head coach for the San Francisco 49ers...Maybe that’s starting to wear and tear on the team and it’s taking its toll."

The toll has most noticeably been felt on offense, where the 49ers have oscillated between above average and dreadful all season. It's been entirely the latter in San Francisco's last two games. Colin Kaepernick has put up decent counting stats through the air, but those passes have come in between 14 sacks. The Rams, who had six sacks in their first seven games, brought Kaepernick down eight times last Sunday.

While pass blocking has never been a particular strength of his unit, the more glaring difference has come on the ground. Frank Gore has averaged 2.74 yards per carry over the last three weeks after a rollicking start, and rookie Carlos Hyde was strangely excised against Denver and St. Louis. Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers 22nd in run blocking and next to last against the pass, a noticeable trend from last season that has become more glaring in 2014.

The Saints defense has been largely dreadful against both facets this season, but there is nothing Rob Ryan likes more than an overmatched offensive line. Harbaugh needs to use practice this week to fix his creaky unit. His season depends on it.

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

I suspect one of these two teams is a fraud. I shouldn't, but recent history has conditioned me that way. The Dolphins have been a reliable younger brother figure for years, hardly ever being downright awful but never good enough to be taken seriously. The Lions' impending "breakout" season has been a running joke for nearly a half-decade, and excuse me if Jim Caldwell's is little cause for excitement.

The numbers, through the first nine weeks, support the Dolphins. They're third in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, an above-average unit on both sides of the ball. After nearly being benched following a 1-2 start, Ryan Tannehill has shown he can be at least an average option under center.

With offensive coordinator Bill Lazor limiting downfield throws (on which Tannehill has struggled), the former Texas A&M star has steadied the ship. Tannehill has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of Miami's last five games and put together a career-best performance in last week's win over San Diego. Lazor has had particular success using Tannehill out of the read-option, leading to the converted wide receiver setting a career high in rushing yards already.

"I think for Ryan (Tannehill), it's a mixture of his fundamentals continuing to grow, playing the way we want him to in the pocket," Lazor told Jameson Olive of Fox Sports Florida. "I think he's a very athletic guy. We want him to play athletic, with his stance, with his knee-bend a certain way. It's technical stuff, and it has increasingly improved, particularly lately."

The Lions, meanwhile, have raced out to a 6-2 start in many ways despite their franchise quarterback. Matthew Stafford, the long flawed but productive Detroit star, is throwing the ball with more accuracy in 2014 but not with nearly enough effectiveness. He's on pace to set full-season career lows in passing yards and attempts, while also not mitigating his mistakes enough to offset the down production.

Detroit, which continues to be an abysmal running attack, ranks 21st through the air in DVOA. The team has instead been led by a sterling defense, led by Ndamukong Suh and the front seven. The Lions have stifled opposing rushers and forced opponents to beat them through the air, which has gone equally terribly. Darius Slay has become a potential Pro Bowler, and no team in football has been better at locking up opposing top receivers.

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

If the Lions offense was clicking, they'd be considered potential Super Bowl contenders. 

Luckily, some of these struggles can be attributed to Calvin Johnson's prolonged absence. Johnson has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, but given that he was largely ineffective against the Jets and Bills, we can safely make that five. Stafford, as one might expect, is an entirely different player with the NFL's best receiver in the lineup.

We'll get a good look at Detroit's new normal Sunday with Johnson returning. Given the way Miami has bottled opposing offenses itself, though, it'll be an awfully stiff first test.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Had you told Sept. 5 Tyler Conway that he'd be writing about a Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills game two months from now, he'd have asked what war crime he'd committed to deserve such an unfortunate turn of events. Yet, here we are with Kansas City and Buffalo playing one of the week's most important games.

This game has the feeling of one where the loser's season will spiral in one direction and the winner's in the opposite. Both sitting 5-3 in divisions with true Super Bowl contenders, every game henceforth matters. Neither the Chiefs nor the Bills are overtaking the Broncos or Patriots, respectively, and there are 10 AFC teams currently above the .500 mark.

So, yes, the margin of error is thin. 

The Chiefs are by far the more balanced of the two. Alex Smith is having a perfectly Alex Smith-like season, Jamaal Charles has regained his elite status after early injury issues and Andy Reid never gets enough credit for being a fantastic offensive coach. There is no overarching elite quality to be found on the roster, but there is a whole lot of goodness—much like the Chiefs team that went 11-5 a year ago.

The Bills exist on a plane where they merely hope the offense doesn't screw anything up. Kyle Orton has been a godsend since taking over for E.J. Manuel, throwing nine touchdowns against three interceptions while offering general competency. But injuries to Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have depleted the running game. It's possible Jackson comes back this week given the zero-aging serum he apparently took a few years ago, yet the unit is pretty bleak as a whole.

Let's just put it this way: When your best offensive player is a rookie wide receiver, there is some rebuilding to be done.

Buffalo is spurred by a defense that has been hell for opposing quarterbacks. The Bills are second in the league in sacks, tied for the most interceptions and have the fourth-lowest quarterback rating against. Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes have been an almost unfair trio all season. With Leodis McKelvin having already set a career high for picks in a season, it'll be fun to see this unit take on the risk-averse Chiefs offense.

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