UNC Basketball: 5 Bold Predictions for Tar Heels' 2014-15 Season

Anyone can make a prediction based on logic and factual data. Who would want to read that, though?

Where is the entertainment in reading that North Carolina will hit more free throws this season or that the team's third-leading three-point shooter will indeed finish with more than eight makes from distance?

The only fun way to make a prediction is to go bold—something that would make coach Roy Williams react as in the photo above. "Bold" can be good or bad; "bold" can be a huge leap of faith or a random hunch, but it is never baseless.

Here are five things that are sure to (probably not but maybe will) happen in the Tar Heels' 2014-15 season.

Brice Johnson Finishes as the Top Defender in the ACC

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In 2013-14, Brice Johnson didn't even average enough minutes per game to qualify for the list of leaders in defensive rating in the ACC.

Things should be different this season. The North Carolina frontcourt has cleared out, and Johnson figures to be the starting power forward. He should also stay on the court as long as his play warrants it, which should mean a large increase from 19.4 minutes per game is in store.

As for his game, Johnson already fills up the stat sheet with defensive metrics. He led the team in blocks a season ago while playing so few minutes each night. Although he was just fourth on the team in defensive win shares, according to Sports-Reference.com, he should jump to the top spot there with an uptick in playing time.

And from that point, his quick feet and strong second jump should help him climb the conference leaderboard as well. It doesn't hurt that the conference's top two in defensive rating last year (Akil Mitchell and K.J. McDaniels) have both graduated.

Brice needs to work on putting forth a consistent defensive effort all game long. He also needs to stay out of foul trouble while playing 30 minutes per night. If some of these things come together, there is no reason he can't be the top defender in this loaded conference.

J.P. Tokoto Plays Fewer Than 20 MPG

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For a jack-of-all-trades like J.P. Tokoto, it may seem foolish or downright egregious for Roy Williams to sit him on the bench for such extended periods of time. However, the dirty little secret about Tokoto is that he isn't very good at a lot of those trades.

Last year, Tokoto played more than 28 minutes per game, good for third on the team, trailing only Marcus Paige and James Michael McAdoo. He contributed across the board, dealing assists, grabbing steals, shooting well from the floor, crashing the boards and D-ing up like nobody's business.

However, he was relied on for most of those tasks because Williams had no one better to use. That should change this season.

The infusion to the roster of three talented freshmen who can all play combo guard/wing spells bad news for Tokoto. He will no longer be needed to help Paige bring up the ball and create shots for others. He will certainly never need to take another contested three as long as he plays.

Really, the only skill that Tokoto will continue to bring to the team is wing defense, which he is good at. However, that type of skill set does not warrant close to 30 minutes per night. As a defensive replacement and occasional sub, Tokoto may find himself sitting and watching a lot of possessions in 2014-15.

UNC Loses Four Times Before Conference Play Begins

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North Carolina is entering this season ranked sixth in the country, according to both the preseason AP poll and USA Today Sports Coaches Poll. It is hard to imagine such a team losing multiple times prior to conference play.

However, college basketball scheduling is advancing from how it used to be. Big, early-season tournaments are all the rage now, pitting high-profile clubs against each other throughout November. Also, teams are more inclined to schedule better opponents during the out-of-conference slate because they know how important that rhetoric is to NCAA tournament committee members come playoff time. Nothing kills a team's resume faster than having faced no one outside the conference.

Thanks to some of that scheduling, as well as the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, North Carolina will have a tough road to traverse prior to facing Clemson on January 3 to open ACC play.

With set games against Davidson, Iowa, Kentucky, Ohio State and Butler, among others, UNC could trip up in a number of spots. After the Butler game in Battle 4 Atlantis, the Heels could also face the likes of Oklahoma or UCLA and Wisconsin or Florida depending on how far certain teams advance.

North Carolina will also be attempting to squeeze three freshmen into its rotation, which should also be factored into early-season missteps. A loss could come against literally anybody if three of the team's main contributors don't yet know their sets and defensive rotations.

Marcus Paige Fails to Make First Team All-ACC

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For someone just named to the preseason All-American team, it would be hard to figure he wouldn't make his own conference's first team. Because of increased ACC competition and the expanded depth to UNC's roster, however, that's where we stand with Marcus Paige.

Paige was clearly one of the best players in the conference a year ago and was rightly placed on the preseason All-American team. Even if he lands somewhere outside of the ACC's top five at the end of this season, it doesn't mean he was bad.

With Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson spotting up around him this year, Paige actually has some scorers that he can feed the ball to. That was hardly the case in 2013-14. Increased post touches for Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks should also be in store as the two refine their offensive games. Outside of their limited minutes, no one was demanding the ball on the post at any point last season.

For Paige, having all these extra weapons means his assists should go up, and his open looks will go up, but his overall shots and production could go down, which will make it harder for ACC voters to reward him with a first-team nod. From an insider's perspective, he could play as well as he did a year ago, just differently. From outside the university, it will seem as though he slipped.

Now consider all the other guards in this conference, including incoming Louisville Cardinals players, and it's easier to imagine Paige getting left out.

Isaiah Hicks Becomes the Team's Crunch-Time Big

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It doesn't totally matter who starts in the frontcourt. After all, Roy Williams left Joel James in the starting lineup close to half the year last year, and he only played eight minutes per night.

What matters more is the lineup Williams chooses to end games with. So even though Kennedy Meeks will most likely start opposite Brice Johnson to begin games, Isaiah Hicks is going to be the one finishing them alongside Johnson.

The struggles for Hicks in his freshman year are a bit worrisome but explainable. He also was rarely playing power forward, his natural position. The reason he was such a highly regarded talent out of high school was because his 6'8" frame could gallop past opposing big men, leading to easy buckets and ferocious dunks.

It didn't work out that way in spare time as a small forward last year, but his defense and athleticism still showed glimpses.

With Meeks probably not ready for full-time minutes because of conditioning and foul trouble, it will lead to opportunities for Hicks up front. That will make the optimal lineup evident. A team with Johnson and Hicks as the bigs could be dangerously athletic on both ends of the court.

Mismatches are what coaches strive for. This move accomplishes that during the most important stretch of the game.