Final Series Golf 2014: Predictions for Favorites, Dark Horses at HSBC Champions
The European Tour's Final Series, otherwise dubbed the "Race to Dubai," is essentially the European equivalent to the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup. Consisting of four year-end events with some of the most prestigious fields of the season, the Final Series provides an opportunity for American golf fans to view high-stakes competition before the regular PGA season kicks into gear.
It's important to note "regular" because this week's event, the WGC-HSBC Champions, is actually a new PGA Tour event, in addition to falling under the umbrella of the European, Asian and Japanese Golf Tours. As such, there will be plenty of familiar names in the field, including Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott and more.
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We'll focus on this with a particular slant towards the European Tour, as the Race to Dubai is wide open with points standings leader Rory McIlroy not playing. Here are some of the names golf fans should focus on as the biggest threats to take home the top prize at Sheshan International Golf Club.
Sergio Garcia
Sergio Garcia has won just a single event since August of 2012, which came at the Qatar Masters back in January. Nevertheless, the Spaniard has actually improved his game over the past two seasons, standing out as one of the most consistent contenders on the European Tour. After a second-place finish at the CIMB Classic, the Final Series' first leg, Garcia appears primed to finally close the deal.
Garcia has won this event before, taking the 2008 title in a playoff over Oliver Wilson. Though Garcia stands in third place in the Race to Dubai rankings, McIlroy's incendiary form means that the 34-year-old will likely need an unprecedented hot streak to overtake the world's top player:
Garcia does have a history of recent success that makes him one of the safest choices to contend this week, however. Besides coming in fourth during last year's event, Garcia has managed a top-10 finish in three consecutive starts. Even with the victory drought, there are few hotter golfers in the world at the moment, making him the presumptive favorite in a McIlroy-less field.
Prediction: Winner
Justin Rose
Rose has been one of the tour's most inconsistent golfers over the past year. During the 2014 season, for instance, the Englishman had eight top-five finishes in the PGA and European Tours combined, but also two missed cuts and three finishes outside the top 30.
However, Rose is in excellent form at the moment, at least based on the sample we have seen over the past month. After accruing four points over five Ryder Cup matches, the most of any golfer in the competition, Rose fared well in his return to tournament play last week. With a fourth-place finish at the BMW Masters, Rose sustained his strong finish from the PGA season, as he finished fourth at the TOUR Championship.
Considering that he finished fourth in this event last season, Rose, like Garcia, has history on his side this weekend. Currently sitting in fifth in the rankings, Rose has an opportunity to make a significant jump and place himself as the biggest challenger to McIlroy with a victory.
Prediction: Runner-Up
Jamie Donaldson
However, neither Garcia nor Rose currently sit in second behind McIlroy. Jamie Donaldson, whose putt clinched the Ryder Cup victory for Europe in September, may not have been a particularly familiar name to American fans before that competition. However, as Donaldson told the Daily Express' John Dillon, the 39-year-old's tough career path has kept him grounded despite the recent glory:
"I've been at rock bottom, staring in the face of giving up golf. When I was injured, I walked like a hunched up old man. I once earned only £1,200 from playing two events out in South America and I was going broke. So you won't find me saying I've cracked it because of what happened at Gleneagles.
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Indeed, despite a lack of success on the PGA Tour, the late bloomer stands out as arguably the field's most intriguing dark horse this week. Numerous pundits have zeroed in on Donaldson as a name to watch this week, as his fourth-place finish at the BMW Masters last week continued what has been a remarkable run of six top-10 finishes in his past seven European Tour starts.
In truth, Donaldson could have won last week, when a Saturday round of 62 put him in second headed into the final round. But while a 75 on Sunday derailed him at Lake Malaren, do not expect a similar swoon if Donaldson is again near the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
Prediction: Top Five
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