Two of the top teams in the Big 12 will square off in Fort Worth, Texas on Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs host the Kansas State Wildcats. The Horned Frogs have lost the last two meetings with the Wildcats, who are riding a five-game winning streak and have covered the spread in their last six games since starting the season 0-2 versus the line.
Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 52.0-36.0 Horned Frogs
Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread
Kansas State has been tremendous as a road underdog over the past few years, going 13-1 against the spread in its last 14 games under that scenario. In addition, the Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their past 21 road games against Big 12 opponents, which is a testament to head coach Bill Snyder and how he approaches conference games.
Snyder’s team still has a shot at making the four-team playoff, but this is a must-win game with TCU ranked higher. The Big 12 as a conference does not have one team among the top four and will count on other schools ranked higher than its best to fall. All Kansas State can do is keep winning and hope everything falls into place at the end.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
It may not have been a pretty win for the Horned Frogs, but beating West Virginia 31-30 on the road last week remains an important victory at this point of the season. TCU did not cover the spread against the Mountaineers as 3.5-point road favorites. However, that was the team’s first non-cover of the year after starting out 7-0 ATS.
The Horned Frogs even managed to cover in their lone loss of the season, staying within a touchdown of Baylor in a 61-58 setback nearly a month ago. While TCU has lost the last two meetings with the Wildcats, last year’s meeting was extremely close. The Horned Frogs lost 33-31 on a Kansas State field goal with three seconds left but still covered as 12-point road underdogs.
It’s hard to go against Snyder’s team in this spot as a tough road dog, but the Wildcats have played only two games away from home this year, winning both of them by a combined five points. The last one came at Oklahoma three weeks ago and resulted in a 31-30 upset victory as seven-point underdogs.
This is a slightly smaller spread for Kansas State but arguably a better opponent, as TCU also beat the Sooners earlier this season 37-33 as a 3.5-point home dog. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home favorites and 4-0 versus the line in their past four home games against conference opponents. They will use home field to their advantage here with a win and cover.
- Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last five games
- TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games