North Carolina Basketball: Complete Roster, Season Preview for 2014-15 Tar Heels

North Carolina is coming off an up-and-down season in which it got hot down the stretch but failed to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. The slate has been wiped clean, however, and the Tar Heels are primed to make a hard push at the ACC title and another deep tourney run.

UNC, which is ranked sixth in the preseason Associated Press poll, opens play Nov. 14 against North Carolina Central. Before we get to that initial tip-off, it's time to take a comprehensive look at what to expect from the 2014-15 Heels.

With three starters back and a heralded recruiting class on board to fill in the holes, Carolina has a lineup that looks to be far more balanced than the Marcus Paige-heavy team that went 24-10 last year. Scroll through our preview to see what's in store from the Heels this season.

Key Newcomers

North Carolina landed the No. 3 recruiting class in the country for 2014, according to 247Sports. Featuring two 5-star prospects and a 4-star recruit, this crop of newcomers is all expected to make major contributions in 2014-15.

Joel Berry, G, Fr.

Berry is small but stocky at 6'0" and 195 pounds. He is a true pass-first point guard who figures to spell veteran Marcus Paige at the 1 as well as play alongside him in a more guard-heavy lineup.

Justin Jackson, F, Fr.

A projected starter from his first game in a Carolina uniform, Jackson's 6'8" frame will give the Heels great length from the 3 that will make him a huge asset on defense and a matchup nightmare in the halfcourt. Jackson has shown the ability to be a slasher who will get a lot of his points at the rim.

Theo Pinson, F, Fr.

The 6'6" Pinson had 15 points and eight rebounds in 14 minutes in UNC's exhibition win over Fayetteville State late last month, showing his ability to provide instant offense off the bench. He'll also be counted on to provide defensive pressure when he spells fellow wings.

Key Returners

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Brice Johnson, F, Jr.

Johnson has made it his mission since coming to UNC two years ago to become bigger and stronger in an effort to stop getting pushed around in the paint. The result is a body that now packs 228 pounds onto his 6'9" frame, which is more than 40 pounds heavier than he was two years ago as a freshman.

Kennedy Meeks, C, So.

While fellow frontcourt player Johnson looked to bulk up during the offseason, Meeks went the other direction and has shed about 50 pounds off his 6'9" frame to come in this fall at 270 pounds. The still-beefy sophomore has looked much quicker and has shown better stamina, which is key since last year he only managed 16.3 minutes per game because of poor conditioning.

Marcus Paige, G, Jr.

The heart and soul of Carolina's team, Paige was the team's leading scorer, assist and steal man, and pretty much the only viable outside-shooting option in 2013-14. Surrounded by more talent and depth this season, the 6'1" junior's scoring may dip a little but his value won't decrease at all.

J.P. Tokoto, G/F, Jr.

A hot-and-cold player a year ago, the 6'6" Tokoto has worked hard during the summer and in the preseason to get himself to the front of UNC's deep pool of shooting guards and wing players. He has strong rebounding skills for a perimeter player.

Roster and Projected Rotation

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Starting Lineup

UNC coach Roy Williams had 11 different players log at least 10 minutes in the 111-58 exhibition win over Fayetteville State on Oct. 24. However, not too much stock can be taken in how deep into the bench Williams went. The Tar Heels figure to go with an eight- or nine-man rotation throughout the season, with further reach down the roster during some of the easier games during nonconference play.

As far as starters go, here's what looks like the most likely lineup that will be on the court for the opening tip:

PG: Marcus Paige (Jr., 6'1")

SG: J.P. Tokoto (Jr., 6'6")

SF: Justin Jackson (Fr., 6'8")

PF: Brice Johnson (Jr., 6'9")

C: Kennedy Meeks (So., 6'9")

Key reserves

Joel Berry (G), Nate Britt (G), Isaiah Hicks (F), Desmond Hubert (F), Joel James (F), Theo Pinson (F)

UNC has an overabundance of frontcourt players, making it so if Johnson and Meeks get into foul trouble Coach Williams has backups to shuttle in for small bursts to save his starters. There is also a deep group of players who can handle the 2 or 3, and the ability to have Berry or Britt on the court with Paige sliding over to the 2 is another major asset.

Where the Tar Heels could be in trouble is in the outside shooting department, as Paige is the only proven perimeter scorer. Last season he made (and attempted) more than every other player on the team, and UNC needs a second outside option to emerge.

Biggest X-Factors

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Complementing Paige

Marcus Paige led UNC with 17.5 points per game while also registering more assists and steals than any other player last season. He was also the lone three-point shooting threat, with Leslie McDonald helping out somewhat after his return from an NCAA suspension.

McDonald and No. 2 scorer James Michael McAdoo are gone, which could put even more pressure on Paige to produce. Others have to contribute in that area not only to create balance but to keep Paige from being keyed on by opponents and potentially taken out of the equation.

Productive Post Play

There are high hopes for Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks in the frontcourt, with each player working overtime in the offseason to get their bodies in better shape for the rigors of a long season. Whether that translates into production and effective play, though, remains to be seen.

Taking their numbers from a year ago and extrapolating them to figure into the minutes of a full-time starter, both look like they can handle the load. But UNC's schedule is going to provide many challenges for those post players, so it won't be an automatic ascension to inside greatness.

Cashing In At The Line

Poor foul shooting seemed to be an issue for many top teams in 2013-14 but no team had a worse time at the free-throw line than UNC. Its .626 foul-shooting percentage ranked 338th out of 345 teams ranked by Division I, and outside of Paige's .877 rate the team's efficiency dropped to .576.

With six of last season's 10 losses coming by six points or fewer, including the third-round NCAA tournament loss to Iowa State, misses at the line were definitely an issue. Improvement in this area might be more important to the 2014-15 season than anything else.

Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios

Best-Case Scenario

Win or lose, the rigors of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament (where UNC could face two Sweet 16 teams from a year ago and likely a Final Four participant) will serve as a great springboard for handling both a tough nonconfernece slate and yet another gauntlet through the ACC.

Marcus Paige continues to lead the Tar Heels in scoring, but his points come more from opportunity than necessity. Freshman Justin Jackson quickly emerges as the No. 2 option on offense, while UNC's beefed up frontcourt make Carolina one of the better defensive teams in the ACC.

Barring too many prolonged hiccups, UNC finishes first or second in the conference and heads into the NCAA tournament no worse than a No. 3, doing no worse than the Elite Eight.

Worst-Case Scenario

The free-throw shooting issues from a year ago pop up again early, and players begin to press. This prompts Paige to again try to take over on offense. Without anyone to support him there will be games where he gets shut down and there's nobody to score. The frontcourt can't handle the bigger and more athletic post players, leading to poor rebounding numbers.

With an ACC schedule that is set up for at least 12 wins, UNC instead goes 11-7 by giving away a few to lesser opponents. The Heels head into the NCAA tournament as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed, again falling before the first weekend is through.

Prediction

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This isn't Roy Williams' best team since he's been at North Carolina, but it has the potential to be close to the top. Everything depends on how diverse its offense is, and how well the Tar Heels' newcomers fit into the lineup.

Carolina makes it out of the nonconference at 10-2, falling to Wisconsin in the Battle 4 Atlantis final and to Kentucky in Lexington. But then a 7-0 start to the ACC schedule has the Heels knocking on the door of the top spot in the polls heading into the toughest stretch of the season, six games from Jan. 26 to Feb. 18 that feature four road games (including three straight) and five against NCAA tournament teams from a year ago.

UNC is lucky to come out of there 3-3 (losing at Louisville and Duke, possibly also at Pittsburgh) and then finishes the regular season with five straight wins including the season finale at home against the Blue Devils. At 25-5 and 15-3 in the conference, the Heels get the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament.

It reaches the conference final but loses, either to Duke or Louisville, and at 27-6 gets a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tourney. That's good enough to get first-weekend games in Charlotte, then a trip to either Syracuse or Houston for the regionals.

Look for UNC to reach the Elite Eight but lose to the No. 1 seed in its region, ending the season with a 30-7 record.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.