Carolina Hurricanes' Attendance Analysis and Projections for Remaining Games

Two consecutive sparse crowds at PNC Arena over the weekend has reopened the debate over the Carolina Hurricanes' declining attendance.

The 'Canes managed to draw only 10,870 fans for a Saturday night game against Arizona, then an even smaller 10,519 for Sunday evening's contest against Los Angeles, the defending Stanley Cup champions. The host's first two wins of the 2014-15 season—improving their record to a still-woeful 2-8—earned fewer than 22,000 ticket sales.

Eye-opening images of the swaths of empty red seats patched across the 100 level sparked intrigue and humiliation on Twitter, with proponents of NHL relocation to Hartford, Quebec City and other cities voicing their disgust.

"

@EmptySeatsPics Carolina Hurricanes 'fans' dont care if Stanley Cup Champs, LAKings r in town. Odd 5pm Sunday start. pic.twitter.com/PoRFQTMErg

— ⁴⁴ (@interst8forty4) November 2, 2014"

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Management, however, may not have been nearly so surprised.

New team president Don Waddell, hired over the summer to focus on what he told Luke DeCock of the News & Observer would be the "revenue-generating departments," foreshadowed the rough upcoming year at the box office before the autumn even began.

Wrote DeCock back in early October:

"

The Hurricanes are paying the price for the way Jim Rutherford and Peter Karmanos allowed the business side of the franchise to atrophy, a mess currently undergoing triage under Don Waddell.

Ticket sales are slow – there are discounts available for opening night, the one game out of 41 that should sell itself – suites sit empty, the ownership situation is in flux and sponsors have jumped ship.

"

Date	Opponent	Attendance
Fri, Oct. 10	NY Islanders	18,860
Tue, Oct. 14	Buffalo	14,930
Sat, Nov. 1	Arizona	10,870
Sun, Nov. 2	Los Angeles	10,519

Indeed, the 'Canes did manage to sell out opening night, a 5-3 loss to the Islanders taken in by, reportedly, a full 18,860 living humans.

But attendance fell to 14,930 the following Tuesday against Buffalo—although the Sabres are usually one of the least appealing opponents, and it was on a Tuesday early in the season—then down below 11,000 against the pair of Western Conference opponents this past weekend.

Certainly, the 'Canes on-ice performance is affecting the numbers. Attendance against the Sabres was relatively respectable considering the situation; after a winless five-game road trip, conversely, Raleigh sports fans were evidently unexcited to return to 1400 Edwards Mill Rd.

Over the long run, a playoff berth at long last (although it's improbable that will occur this coming spring) should make a tremendous difference in ticket sales. But meanwhile, improvement over the course of the season will likely improve attendance slightly.

Relocation speculation, especially solely from the mere image of some empty seats, is nonetheless ridiculous.

The rumors about a Las Vegas move that were discussed by sports radio host David Glenn (via Triangle Business Journal) earlier this year—fueled by Dan Patrick, a strangely regular critic of the Hurricanes franchise in the past, on his radio show (via Cardiac Canes)—were nothing short of absurd.

Waddell fired back days later, calling it a "pretty horrible rumor." The rekindling of such speculation as a result of this past weekend's (justifiably) low attendance is highly premature.

Gregg Forwerck/Getty Images

Based on data from the past three full seasons, I analyzed attendance trends based on month, day of week and opponent, then handicapped projected attendances based on this year's expected overall decline.

The formula predicted an average 2014-15 home attendance of 13,637 for the Hurricanes, down 11.9 percent from last season's average of 15,483.

Individual game-by-game projections for all 37 remaining games at PNC Arena lie in the chart below:

Date	Opponent	Projected Attendance
Fri, Nov. 7	Columbus	13,733
Mon, Nov. 10	Calgary	11,761
Thu, Nov. 13	Winnipeg	13,086
Sun, Nov. 16	San Jose	11,685
Sat, Nov. 29	Pittsburgh	15,698
Tue, Dec. 2	Nashville	11,990
Thu, Dec. 4	Washington	12,716
Sun, Dec. 7	Detroit	16,725
Mon, Dec. 8	New Jersey	14,191
Thu, Dec. 18	Toronto	12,759
Sat, Dec. 20	NY Rangers	13,236
Mon, Dec. 29	Montreal	14,843
Fri, Jan. 2	Philadelphia	13,038
Sun, Jan. 4	Boston	14,549
Thu, Jan. 8	Buffalo	12,791
Tue, Jan. 13	Colorado	11,982
Fri, Jan. 16	Vancouver	12,722
Tue, Jan. 27	Tampa Bay	14,127
Fri, Jan. 30	St. Louis	12,722
Thu, Feb. 12	Anaheim	13,874
Tue, Feb. 17	NY Islanders	11,043
Fri, Feb. 20	Toronto	13,805
Tue, Feb. 24	Philadelphia	12,951
Fri, Feb. 27	Washington	13,758
Fri, Mar. 6	Minnesota	13,168
Sun, Mar. 8	Edmonton	12,624
Tue, Mar. 10	Columbus	13,956
Thu, Mar. 12	Dallas	12,802
Sat, Mar. 14	Florida	15,293
Tue, Mar. 17	Ottawa	9,419
Sat, Mar. 21	NY Rangers	13,685
Mon, Mar. 23	Chicago	13,830
Thu, Mar. 26	Pittsburgh	16,202
Sat, Mar. 28	New Jersey	15,443
Sun, Mar. 29	Boston	15,082
Sat, Apr. 4	Philadelphia	13,782
Sat, Apr. 11	Detroit	18,680

The model projects just one more sellout on the agenda: the home finale in April against Detroit, which takes place on a Saturday and includes one of the league's highest-profile opponents.

On the other hand, it projects just one game with four-digit attendance, a Tuesday game in March against Ottawa, historically the least popular opponent in the Eastern Conference.

If the 'Canes miraculously surge back into postseason contention, numbers will naturally far exceed these projections. If not, though, expect a bleak season replete with sub-14,000 crowds at PNC Arena.

Mark Jones has covered the Carolina Hurricanes for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.