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Stock Watch for College Basketball's Blue-Blood Programs Ahead of 2014-15 Season

Kerry MillerNov 5, 2014

College basketball's blue-blood programs are the ones we can't help but talk about, whether they succeed masterfully or fail miserably. 

Traditionally there are six schools included in the conversation about blue bloods: Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and UCLA. However, we're including two more programs who have every right to be on that list.

Say what you will about changing traditions, but you're likely reading this on a device that wasn't even invented when the "blue bloods" term was coined. It's about time we open up the ballot to add a few more teams.

This is a stock watch for those eight programs. We're here to let you know whether those teams are in better or worse shape than they finished last season and how far in which direction they are trending.

Between defending champions, 2015 title favorites and a couple of teams that might miss the tournament altogether, they've got all the bases covered.

Connecticut Huskies

1 of 8

2013-14 Season: 32-8, No. 7 seed (won national championship)

Players Lost: Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels, Lasan Kromah, Niels Giffey, Leon Tolksdorf

Players Gained: Rodney Purvis, Daniel Hamilton, Sam Cassell Jr., Rakim Lubin

Projected Starters: Ryan Boatright (PG), Purvis (SG), Hamilton (SF), Phillip Nolan (PF), Amida Brimah (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Kentan Facey (F), Cassell (G), Terrence Samuel (G)

Stock: Way Down

If you have a problem with Connecticut being listed as a blue-blood college basketball program, too bad. The Huskies have won more national championships than Kansas and have been to five Final Fours in the past 16 years.

But if you're still grumpy about their inclusion, take solace in the fact that they have very little hope of making it six out of 17 this year.

This is a hypothetical we've been posing off and on throughout the summer, but where exactly would we rank the Huskies if they had lost that overtime game to Saint Joseph's in their 2014 NCAA tournament opener?

Right when the tournament ended, ESPN's John Gasaway was among the masses asking whether or not the Huskies could repeat in 2015 (Insider subscription required).

Gasaway wrote: "Even with Napier leaving, [coach Kevin] Ollie could have a rotation that plays very good defense while presenting multiple scoring threats to opponents. If Daniels returns and Boatright is just-add-water-ready at point guard the way I suspect he is, Connecticut might miss Napier less than people think."

But with Daniels ultimately deciding to leave for the NBA draft, there are more questions than answers in Storrs.

If we could somehow surgically remove the memory of the tournament from our brains, would we really look at this projected starting five and pick Connecticut to win the AAC and advance to the Sweet 16?

Are we that confident in Ryan Boatright as a leading scorer? Are we sure a frontcourt of Amida Brimah, Phillip Nolan and Kentan Facey is going to accomplish anything?

We're not trying to rain on Connecticut's parade, but these are questions that need to be asked in the days leading up to the start of the season.

Even if you truly believe this is a Sweet 16 team, though, that's still a big step down from national champions.

Duke Blue Devils

2 of 8

2013-14 Season: 26-9, No. 3 seed (lost to Mercer in round of 64)

Players Lost: Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, Tyler Thornton, Andre Dawkins, Josh Hairston

Players Gained: Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, Grayson Allen

Projected Starters: T. Jones (PG), Rasheed Sulaimon (SG), Winslow (SF), Amile Jefferson (PF), Okafor (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Quinn Cook (G), Matt Jones (G/F), Semi Ojeleye (F)

Stock: Slightly Up

The Blue Devils aren't the favorites to win the 2015 national championship, but they're one of the four or five teams most likely to do it.

So, how does that count as only "slightly up"?

Keep in mind, Duke spent the vast majority of the 2013-14 season ranked in the Top 10. The lasting image of Duke's season was those kids from Mercer dancing up a storm on the sideline, but the Blue Devils opened the tournament as one of the legitimate candidates to win it all.

They simply didn't have the size to pull it off.

Enter Jahlil Okafor.

Jabari Parker was their all-world freshman last season, but he was forced to play out of position on a roster desperately devoid of big men. This year, the best freshman in the country will fit swimmingly into their frontcourt.

And unlike last year, when the new class was little more than Parker and a couple of rarely used 4-star recruits, Duke gets the best freshman center in the nation, the best freshman point guard in the nation (Tyus Jones) and two more stellar backcourt players in Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen.

Duke lost a lot this offseason but reloaded with the best recruiting class in the country. Between Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson and those two rarely used 4-star guys from last year's class (Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye), the Blue Devils should have a nice balance of veteran leadership and new, talented faces.

Indiana Hoosiers

3 of 8

2013-14 Season: 17-15, missed NCAA tournament

Players Lost: Noah Vonleh, Will Sheehey, Evan Gordon, Austin Etherington, Jeremy Hollowell, Peter Jurkin

Players Gained: James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, Nick Zeisloft, Jeremiah April, Max Hoetzel, Emmitt Holt

Projected Starters: Yogi Ferrell (PG), Blackmon (SG), Stanford Robinson (SF), Troy Williams (PF), Hanner Mosquera-Perea (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Zeisloft (G), Johnson (G), April (C)

Stock: Declaring bankruptcy

One week ago, this would have been a different story. Despite all that they lost, the Hoosiers were still projecting for roughly the same record as last year—maybe even a little better.

But then Emmitt Holt accidentally hit Devin Davis with his car, leaving Davis in serious condition. Holt is suspended for the first two games of the regular season, and who knows if and when Davis will be back on the court. Davis might not have been a starter this year, but he would have been the first forward off the bench.

A couple days after that story broke, it was revealed that Stanford Robinson and Troy Williams—two starters—will also be suspended for the first two regular-season games for failing a drug test.

Missing those players for those games against Mississippi Valley State and Texas Southern probably couldn't matter less. Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. could outscore those teams by themselves. But it's just the latest thing to go wrong for Tom Crean.

Last offseason, the Hoosiers lost Remy Abell and Mo Creek on the transfer market. They lost Luke Fischer in the middle of last season before seeing Jeremy Hollowell, Austin Etherington and Peter Jurkin skip town this summer.

Crean is having trouble convincing players to stay and even more difficulty keeping the ones who do stay out of trouble. In addition to the issues of the past week, Hanner Mosquera-Perea got an OWI in February before Robinson and Ferrell were charged for underage drinking and possession of fake IDs in April.

Two years removed from spending most of the season ranked No. 1 in the nation, this iconic program is spiraling out of control.

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Kansas Jayhawks

4 of 8

2013-14 Season: 25-10, No. 2 seed (lost to Stanford in round of 32)

Players Lost: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Naadir Tharpe, Tarik Black, Conner Frankamp, Andrew White III

Players Gained: Cliff Alexander, Kelly Oubre, Devonte Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Hunter Mickelson

Projected Starters: Graham (PG), Wayne Selden Jr. (SG), Oubre (SF), Alexander (PF), Perry Ellis (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Jamari Traylor (F), Frank Mason (G), Brannen Greene (G/F)

Stock: Ever So Slightly Down

Toward the end of last seasonbefore the back injury that caused Joel Embiid to miss the final six gamesKansas had become one of the favorites to win the national championship.

The Jayhawks struggled through a very difficult schedule for the first two months of the season but won 13 of their first 15 Big 12 games. By the end of February, they were back where they opened the season at No. 5 in the AP poll and arguably the best team in the country.

Though they once again open this season ranked No. 5, this team sure did lose a lot over the summer.

Forget about whether Kentucky's bench could be one of the 10 best teams in the country. Look at the lineup Kansas could make from players who either transferred or left early for the NBA. A backcourt of Naadir Tharpe and Conner Frankamp with Andrew White and Andrew Wiggins at the forward positions and Joel Embiid at center would be pretty remarkable.

Instead, the Jayhawks are forced to rely heavily upon a trio of freshmen for a second straight season.

It worked out pretty darn well last year, but there's a very fine line between having two of the top three draft picks and having two of the 10 best freshmen in the country.

Kansas should be a great team that definitely faces an extremely difficult schedule, but I would have felt a lot safer betting on the Jayhawks in February to win the 2014 title than I would betting on them to win the 2015 title right now. For that reason, their stock is marginally down.

Kentucky Wildcats

5 of 8

2013-14 Season: 29-11, No. 8 seed (lost to Connecticut in national championship)

Players Lost: Julius Randle, James Young

Players Gained: Karl Towns Jr., Tyler Ulis, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker

Projected Starters: Andrew Harrison (PG), Aaron Harrison (SG), Alex Poythress (SF), Towns (PF), Willie Cauley-Stein (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Johnson (C), Ulis (G), Lyles (F)

Stock: Way Up

It's not easy for a team's stock to rise after finishing as the runners-up in the NCAA tournament, but the Wildcats are the overwhelming favorites to win this year's title.

They lost two great players in Julius Randle and James Young, but the addition of four 5-star recruits does an awful lot to help soften that blow.

Karl-Anthony Towns Jr. is one of the few players in the country who might actually rival Jahlil Okafor for the No. 1 overall pick in June. Tyler Ulis is one of the most exciting freshman point guards we've ever seen.

Devin Booker would instantly become a leading scorer at roughly 75 percent of D-I programs, and he has barely even been mentioned this summer.

It's not even fair.

Kentucky isn't exactly replicating what UCLA did in the 1960s and 1970s, but from everything that has been written about the Wildcats this summer, it really feels like the rest of the country is playing for silver.

Louisville Cardinals

6 of 8

2013-14 Season: 31-6, No. 4 seed (lost to Kentucky in Sweet 16)

Players Lost: Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Stephan Van Treese

Players Gained: Shaqquan Aaron, Jaylen Johnson, Chinanu Onuaku, Quentin Snider, Anas Mahmoud, Matz Stockman

Projected Starters: Chris Jones (PG), Terry Rozier (SG), Wayne Blackshear (SF), Montrezl Harrell (PF), Mangok Mathiang (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Aaron (G/F), Anton Gill (G), Onuaku (C)

Stock: Very Slightly Down

If you had a problem with Connecticut being on this list of blue bloods, there's a pretty good chance you won't be too keen on Louisville's inclusion either.

Hear us out, though.

There are eight programs in the country with at least three national championships: Louisville and the other seven schools on this list.

The Cardinals have competed in 40 NCAA tournamentsfifth all-time and slightly ahead of both Duke (38) and Indiana (37). Their 10 Final Four appearances rank seventh in the history books. Their 1,728 wins rank 11thfive behind Indiana and 163 ahead of Connecticut.

Before last year's NCAA tournament, they would have made more sense for this discussion than Connecticut, so deal with it.

Despite losing arguably the best player in the country (Russ Smith) and not adding a single 5-star recruit this summer, Louisville opens the 2014-15 season in almost the exact same national standing that it finished last year.

The Cardinals can thank Montrezl Harrell for the fact that they are unanimously one of the 10 best teams heading into the season.

Without perhaps the best returning forward in the country, we're probably talking about a team trying to cobble together a .500 record in its new and improved conference. With Harrell, though, this starting five could go to war with any starting five in the country.

Beyond those starters, however, Rick Pitino's club is extremely inexperienced.

Anton Gill logged all of 136 minutes last season, but he has more college experience than any other non-starter on the roster. Freshmen like Shaqquan Aaron, Chinanu Onuaku and Quentin Snider will need to play key roles for Louisville to remain one of the nation's elite teams this year.

North Carolina Tar Heels

7 of 8

2013-14 Season: 24-10, No. 6 seed (lost to Iowa State in round of 32)

Players Lost: James Michael McAdoo, Leslie McDonald

Players Gained: Justin Jackson, Joel Berry, Theo Pinson

Projected Starters: Marcus Paige (PG), Jackson (SG), J.P. Tokoto (SF), Brice Johnson (PF), Kennedy Meeks (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Isaiah Hicks (F), Berry (G), Pinson (F)

Stock: Fluctuating

As far as the on-court product goes, North Carolina is on the rise.

Marcus Paige is a first-team All-American, Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson are both viewed as strong candidates for a breakout season and the Tar Heels add three great freshmen who will each make an immediate impact.

In his preseason college basketball dream team, NBC Sports' Rob Dauster wrote,"What I loved about Paige last season was that he showed a willingness to run UNC’s offense until it was crunch time, when he would take over. He had quite a few monster second halves and made a number of critical jumpers. I think there’s a real shot he wins National Player of the Year this season."

They earned a No. 6 seed in last year's tournament, but they open this season ranked No. 6 in the nation. They have a very real shot at winning the ACC and doing some serious damage in the tournament.

Off the court is a different story.

Rashad McCants' accusations and the Wainstein report have left one heck of a stain on the university as a whole.

The NCAA hasn't yet decided what to do about these findings, but teams have been ruled ineligible for postseason play for much less.

Having the talent to win the tournament won't much matter if you aren't allowed to compete in it. Until we know the ramifications of North Carolina's (second consecutive) offseason of turmoil, it's impossible to gauge where its stock should be.

UCLA Bruins

8 of 8

2013-14 Season: 28-9, No. 4 seed (lost to Florida in Sweet 16)

Players Lost: Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Zach LaVine, Travis Wear, David Wear

Players Gained: Kevon Looney, Isaac Hamilton, Thomas Welsh, Gyorgy "G.G." Goloman, Alec Wulff

Projected Starters: Bryce Alford (PG), Hamilton (SG), Norman Powell (SF), Looney (PF), Tony Parker (C)

Top Three Bench Players: Welsh (C), Wanaah Bail (G/F), Goloman (C)

Stock: Down but Intriguing

UCLA really stumbled its way through the 2013-14 season.

The Bruins lost the only two noteworthy nonconference games they played (Missouri and Duke) before inexplicably losing games to Oregon State and Washington State in conference play.

Prior to UCLA's incredible showing in the Pac-12 tournament, a two-point road win over Oregon was the most impressive thing the Bruins accomplished. Yet, they earned a No. 4 seed and had a good run in the NCAA tournament.

However, four of the five starters and one very good reserve freshman are no longer on the roster.

They do have a couple of key returning players in Norman Powell and Bryce Alford, but this is an incredibly young roster that could go in any number of directions.

Isaac Hamilton was the fourth-highest rated shooting guard in last year's freshman class, but he was forced to sit out the entire season after breaking his letter of intent with UTEP. Kevon Looney is the third-highest-rated power forward in this year's class.

If those two players fulfill expectations, UCLA could be the second-best team in the Pac-12 once again. More likely, though, the Bruins will experience some growing pains this year in advance of a strong 2015-16 season.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

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