Former Top NBA Prospects Who Need to Break Out This Season
At some point, the "NBA prospect" label wears off. After a few years in the league, you need some type of production or progress on the resume.
A few of the following prospects are in jeopardy of falling closer and closer into the "bust" conversation. Another bad season for them could potentially shatter their free-agent value.
For each former top prospect, I laid out a "Need-to-Breakout Scale" to measure just how badly that particular player actually needs to break out. The scale runs one to five, with "five" meaning the player needs a breakout season to save his career and "one" meaning he needs it to save his declining free-agent value.
All advanced stats courtesy of NBA.com, basketball-reference.com and realgm.com
Austin Rivers, New Orleans Pelicans
1 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale: 1 2 3 4 ⑤
Austin Rivers needs to make something happen this year to prove his NBA worth. Because it's not too high after two seasons.
All of the fears attached to Rivers as a prospect came to life when he made the jump to the pros.
Rivers has given off the impression he's a scorer in a point guard's body—a recipe for low-percentage offense.
He's struggled with facilitating and shot selection, while his lack of strength and explosiveness has led to a brutal shooting percentage at the rim (47.2 percent last season).
As a scorer and shooter, Rivers wasn't very accurate or consistent his sophomore season, having shot just 32.7 percent in the mid-range and 36.4 percent from downtown.
There's still hope for Rivers, whose breakdown quickness and playmaking capability hold value at the NBA level. He's just gotta figure out how and when to use them. And it wouldn't hurt to knock down a few extra shots from outside either.
Thomas Robinson, Portland Trail Blazers
2 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale: 1 2 3 ④ 5
Already on his third NBA team, Thomas Robinson will likely be auditioning for his fourth this season after the Portland Trail Blazers chose not to pick up the option on his deal.
And having averaged under five points and five rebounds in back-to-back years, his resume is pretty incomplete.
A former No. 5 overall pick taken just before Damian Lillard, Robinson needs to show something in 2014-15 to generate offers this upcoming summer. Because at this point, there are questions surrounding his game that need answers.
His mid-range touch hasn't developed the way many thought it would. Robinson made just 21 of 64 shots (32.8 percent) from 15-19 feet. And that's about as far as his shooting range has extended, considering he hit just two shots outside of 20 feet all year long.
Robinson has also struggled to generate offense and even finish it down low—NBA.com has him down for making only one hook shot in 2013-14, while his 55.8 percent conversion rate on layups simply isn't good enough to make up for his shooting and post-scoring woes.
To his credit, he sports a pretty solid 17.94 rebounding percentage through 142 games. And quite frankly, that's where he's at his best—out-working opponents on loose balls around the rim.
Still, Robinson will need to make some more offensive noise in 2014-15.
Bismack Biyombo, Charlotte Hornets
3 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale: 1 2 3 ④ 5
Bismack Biyombo hasn't done much since getting drafted No. 7 in 2011—just ahead of Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, the Morris twins, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Vucevic.
He averaged 5.2 points as a rookie and has seen that number drop in each of the past two seasons.
Biyombo's offensive game just hasn't developed at all in terms of creating shots in the post or knocking down mid-range jumpers.
On the other side, he's racked up his fair share of blocks, but Biyombo's defensive impact hasn't been strong enough to make up for his offensive limitations.
He's already started his fourth year in the league outside of Charlotte's rotation.
Biyombo is still just 22 years old, but at some point you stop looking at age and start counting the years of minimal progress.
Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
4 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale: 1 2 ③ 4 5
After an up-and-down yet promising rookie season with the Warriors, Harrison Barnes might have taken a step back in year No. 2 when he shot below 40 percent and averaged under 10 points once again.
Barnes clearly has the talent, the moves, the body and athleticism—it's the execution and decision-making that have kept him from making the leap.
Inconsistency and inefficiency have really weighed on Barnes through his first two seasons. You might want to place some of the blame on his shot selection—he's taken a whole lot of difficult ones out there, a tendency you can likely trace to his struggles and lack of comfort getting to and generating points at the rim.
Last season, Barnes averaged just 2.3 free-throw attempts and shot 49.6 percent within eight feet of the basket.
With those types of numbers, Barnes will have to shoot better than he has—below 36 percent from downtown in back-to-back seasons.
The allure tied to Barnes has faded a little bit since the 2012 NBA draft. A third season of erratic shooting and low-percentage offense could really threaten the value of his eventual second contract.
Derrick Williams, Sacramento Kings
5 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale: 1 2 ③ 4 5
Derrick Williams' superhero athletic ability hasn't quite translated to efficient offense at the NBA level.
Now entering a contract year in Sacramento, Williams has the 2014-15 season to convince teams he's not the tweener his game and numbers suggest he's become.
Williams has shot below 44 percent from the floor in each of his first three seasons. He just hasn't gotten his jumper to fall with any consistency, having shot 33.3 percent in the mid-range last year and 26.3 percent from downtown.
In terms of his power forward duties, Williams' career 11.58 rebounding percentage isn't very strong, as he just hasn't made the traditional interior impact of your typical NBA 4.
I think we've already come to the conclusion that Williams won't ever produce No. 2 overall value. But he'll have to be willing to take a serious pay cut in 2015-16 if we don't see some type of progression or consistency this season with the Kings.
Meyers Leonard, Portland Trail Blazers
6 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale: 1 2 ③ 4 5
Meyers Leonard caught a break recently with the Portland Trail Blazers picking up his option. There was some debate as to whether or not he deserved it.
It surprised ESPN's Kevin Pelton, who didn't expect the Blazers to commit some of their 2015 cap room.
Leonard averaged 2.4 points and 2.7 rebounds in 40 games as an NBA sophomore.
Quite frankly, we just haven't seen enough of Leonard through two years in the league. And while injuries and illness have played a role, it won't be a good look if he finishes his third straight season with nothing to show for it.
Leonard has some nice shooting touch from outside and takes up a ton of space in the paint. He shouldn't be in desperation mode just yet, but his value could take a hit if he fails to emerge from irrelevancy in 2014-15.
Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks
7 of 7
Need-to-Breakout Scale : 1 ② 3 4 5
Iman Shumpert's career isn't exactly on the line, but with the New York Knicks choosing not to offer him an extension, he'll be playing for his value this season on the restricted free-agent market.
While his defensive capability will likely always generate interest, Shump's offensive regression has been troubling. And it could keep him from emerging as the starting 2-guard he flashed the potential to become as a rookie.
Shumpert has ultimately had a hard time identifying his sweet spots on the floor. He never gets to the rim—73.8 percent of his shots last year came from outside 10 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com. And he was pretty inefficient once he got there (51.4 percent at the rim).
Unfortunately, he hasn't made enough jumpers either, having shot 35.8 percent on spot-ups and 34.9 percent on pull-ups last season.
It's been an offensive struggle for Shumpert since he tore his ACL as a rookie. The offers will still be there even if he disappoints in 2013-14—they just won't be nearly as rich as what we thought they'd be two years back.
