Why Wisconsin Is Too Good to Fall Victim to the 'Big Ten Favorites Curse'

For the past several months, many have been dubbing Wisconsin the surefire favorite to win the Big Ten, while others caution that anything can happen in this conference.

As it turns out, both sides of the argument are absolutely right.

Wisconsin received eight first-place votes in the preseason AP Top 25, ranking third overall in the country behind the Wildcats of both Kentucky and Arizona. As a result, the Big Ten extends its streak to six consecutive seasons with a team opening the season ranked in the top three.

Unfortunately, that honor has been a kiss of death.

Season	Favorite	AP Rank	Record	Conf. Record	NCAA Tourney
2009-10	Michigan State	2	28-9	14-4 (T-1st)	Final Four
2010-11	Michigan State	2	19-15	9-9 (T-4th)	Lost opener
2011-12	Ohio State	3	31-8	13-5 (T-1st)	Final Four
2012-13	Indiana	1	29-7	14-4 (1st)	Sweet 16
2013-14	Michigan State	2	29-9	12-6 (T-2nd)	Elite Eight

The 2012-13 Hoosiers were the only team to earn an outright Big Ten title, and they needed some serious last-second heroics in the regular-season finale against Michigan, coming back from a late five-point deficit to avoid slipping into a four-way tie for that year's Big Ten title.

All five teams suffered at least four conference losses.

Not a single one played in the national championship game.

Despite that string of bad luck, we have every reason to remain confident in Wisconsin's impending Big Ten and Final Four banners.

Thank the Tank

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press

At this time one year ago, Frank Kaminsky was more anonymous than Michigan State's Kenny Kaminski.

In a world obsessed with McDonald's All-Americans, Kaminsky couldn't have flown further below the national radar.

According to 247Sports, he was a 3-star center in the freshmen class of 2011. Aside from the one he accepted from Wisconsin, the only schools who even tendered Kaminsky an offer were Bradley, DePaul, Northern Illinois and Northwestern.

Not exactly the Mount Rushmore of college basketball powerhouses.

Stuck behind Jared Berggren, Ryan Evans and eventually Sam Dekker on the frontcourt depth chart, Kaminsky played a grand total of 600 minutes in his first two seasons with the Badgers, scoring 196 points and grabbing 106 rebounds.

To help put those numbers in perspective, it took Kaminsky two years to do what Rapheal Davis (593 minutes, 191 points, 119 rebounds) did last season for Purdue. And unless you live in West Lafayette, there's a pretty good chance you've never even heard of Davis.

Then, something magical happened.

Out of thin air, Kaminsky exploded for 43 points last November against North Dakota—and Twitter exploded right along with him.

Just like that, Frank the Tank was born and Wisconsin was a legitimate contender for the 2014 national championship. Other draft decisions received more attention—Montrezl Harrell returning to Louisville, the Harrison twins returning to Kentucky—but Kaminsky might be the most important returning player in the country.

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Improved Three-Point Luck

We all remember Aaron Harrison draining a contested three-pointer in the Final Four to send Wisconsin home two wins short of glory, but that bucket was hardly an outlier.

On the season, Wisconsin's opponents shot just 34.1 percent from three-point range, averaging 4.8 made triples per contest. Solid numbers, but over the prior two seasons, the Badgers held opponents to 29.2 percent three-point shooing and 3.7 made three-pointers per game.

What changed wasn't some fundamental shift in defensive philosophy. They were just unlucky in losses.

Wisconsin suffered a total of seven losses before the start of the NCAA tournament. In those games, opponents averaged 5.7 made three-pointers while shooting 48.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, the bounces were equally unfortunate on the offensive end of the court. The Badgers averaged 7.8 made three-pointers per game last season, shooting 37.6 percent. But in those seven losses, they shot 30.7 percent and made just 6.1 triples per game.

To live by the three, you must also be willing to die by the three, but that discrepancy was just plain weird.

Also, what was up with Sam Dekker shooting just 32.6 percent from three-point range last season?

Bigger and Badder

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Speaking of Dekker, his two-inch growth spurt this summer makes Wisconsin one of the only Big Ten teams that actually got bigger since March.

Michigan lost Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford. Michigan State no longer has Adreian Payne or Kenny Kaminski. Indiana lost seemingly every player who grabbed a rebound last season. Maryland's best big men are either gone or injured. And Rutgers has been one of the least impressive defensive rebounding teams in the country for more than a decade.

While the competition shrinks, Wisconsin remains massive.

We've already hit on Kaminsky (7'0") and Dekker (6'9"), but the Badgers also have Nigel Hayes (6'7"), Duje Dukan (6'9") and Vitto Brown (6'8") returning. They'll also have Ethan Happ (6'8") and Aaron Moesch (6'8") making their debut as freshmen.

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It's been a while since Bo Ryan had a roster that didn't rely heavily on three-point field goals while forgoing offensive rebounds, but it has been an equally long time since the Badgers earned a share of a Big Ten title.

Anchored in the post by Brian Butch, Greg Stiemsma and Joe Krabbenhoft, the 2007-08 Badgers grabbed 36.1 percent of possible offensive rebounds while 68.1 percent of their field-goal attempts came from two-point range. Both numbers are considerably higher than they have posted in any season since (subscription required), with last year's numbers coming in at 28.1 percent and 60.9 percent, respectively.

They went 16-2 in the Big Ten that season and won the conference tournament, beating every conference foe they faced except for Purdue.

Though the Badgers have acquired a reputation as a three-point shooting team that sacrifices second-chance opportunities to limit fast breaks, Ryan knows how to use quality big men when he has them.

Not only does he have them this year, but hardly any Big Ten coaches have quality big men of their own.

All things considered, the Badgers could be the best team in the conference both inside and outside the arc on each end of the court.

They won't go 18-0. It's impossible to run the slate in the Big Ten. But no team in the conference is even remotely on their level. If it weren't for Arizona and Kentucky, Wisconsin would have the most complete lineup in the country.

But go ahead. Keep thinking anything can happen in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has been thriving on our lack of faith for more than a decade.

Did you know this is only the second time in the past 17 years that the Badgers opened the season ranked in the top 14 in the AP poll? Despite that disrespect, they have been to the NCAA tournament in 16 consecutive seasons, finishing 11 of those seasons ranked higher in the AP poll than they began the year.

It sure would be something if they did it for a 12th time this year.

All advanced stats via KenPom.com (subscription required) and Sports-Reference.com.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.