Bernard Hopkins vs. Sergey Kovalev: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
A rare and highly anticipated unification fight will take place this Saturday night in Atlantic City, as the ageless legend, Bernard Hopkins, puts his WBA and IBF light heavyweight belts up for grabs against Sergey Kovalev's WBO strap.
It's always an event when Hopkins looks to extend his amazing record as boxing's oldest-ever world champion. And it's also become an event whenever rising star Kovalev brings his incredible knockout power to the ring.
The two of them facing off with all the belts on the line makes this one of the biggest fights of the year.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Bernard Hopkins | Sergey Kovalev |
| Record: | 55-6-2, 32 KOs | 25-0-1, 23 KOs |
| Height: | 6'1" | 6' |
| Reach: | 75" | 72.5" |
| Weight: | 175 lbs | 175 lbs |
| Age: | 49 | 31 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Fort Lauderdale, Florida |
| Rounds: | 494 | 72 |
Obviously one number sticks out more than all others here. It defies reality that Bernard Hopkins is still fighting at such a high level at such an advanced age. On Saturday night, he'll be a little more than two months away from his 50th birthday.
But another eye-popping number here is Sergey Kovalev's KO percentage. The single blemish on his otherwise perfect record is the draw, which was a technical draw when an opponent was unable to continue following an accidental foul.
The Philadelphia native, Hopkins, will be fighting in his backyard in Atlantic City. Now comfortably based out of Fort Lauderdale, Kovalev is a Russian native with a strong amateur background on the Russian national team.
Main Storylines
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Bernard Hopkins was already a legend over a decade ago. He made more successful defenses as a middleweight champion than anybody else in history and ended his reign at 160 pounds as an undisputed champion, after knocking out fellow Hall of Famers Felix Trinidad and Oscar De La Hoya in unification bouts.
In 2005, Hopkins lost back-to-back fights against Jermain Taylor. Both decisions were contested and I'd call the second one an outright robbery. Still, Hopkins was 40, and it seemed safe to assume he was nearing the end of his Hall of Fame career.
In fact, he was nowhere near done. Over the past nine years, he has set a new standard for athletes over 40, one that is unlikely to be matched anytime soon. He's stayed active in major fights and continued to collect belts.
Now, at 49, he's making a push to unify the light heavyweight belts.
He'll have to stop a real-life monster to do it.
Sergey Kovalev is one of the most dangerous punchers in the sport. A patient and methodical fighter with a deep amateur background, Kovalev can end a fight with any punch in his arsenal.
Against Cedric Agnew, he scored the stoppage with a jab to the body.
A common theme I've been hearing from fans and writers who are picking Hopkins is that Kovalev has never faced anybody like him. This is, of course, true. But when fans insist that Hopkins has faced plenty of fighters like Kovalev, they are completely wrong.
Hopkins has faced other pressure fighters with big power, but none were anywhere near as dangerous as Kovalev. Felix Trinidad was a big puncher at 147 and 154 pounds.
Kelly Pavlik was a dominant middleweight champion and far leaner than the athletically compact Kovalev. Hopkins was able to muscle Pavlik.
If Hopkins can do his magician's act against Kovalev, it will be one of the great performances of his career, not even taking into account his advanced age.
Strengths
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Bernard Hopkins is a boxing wizard. He is a master of controlling range and tempo in a fight. He is a brilliant technical fighter, but he's also one of the best ever at employing the brawling, "veteran" tactics that skirt the rule book.
Hopkins has always been one of the best-conditioned fighters in the sport, and this has not changed as he has aged. In a sport where self-confidence is taken for granted, Hopkins' mental toughness still falls at the top of the curve.
Sergey Kovalev has rare and dangerous punching power. But he combines that with strong boxing skills, honed at the international level as an amateur. Kovalev is a patient, methodical slugger who waits for a smart opportunity to attack, rather than trying to force it.
Kovalev's trainer is John David Jackson, a former Hopkins opponent and a guy who worked under Hopkins' trainer, Naazim Richardson, when Jackson was coming up as a trainer. I have to think that kind of familiarity with Hopkins' team is going to help Kovalev in his corner between rounds.
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Weaknesses
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Bernard Hopkins might be 49, but so far he has yet to show his age is a weakness. He still shows the conditioning of a much younger man.
He has, however, seemed to lose knockout power as he's aged and fought at a heavier weight. He hasn't knocked out anybody since Oscar De La Hoya in 2004. Against a monster puncher like Kovalev, that's definitely a disadvantage.
Sergey Kovalev has not shown a lot of concern with being hit, but I don't see that so much as a weakness as a tactical choice. His inexperience here has to be considered a weakness, though.
Hopkins has logged 422 more professional rounds than Kovalev. Kovalev has no concept of what it is like to be in the deep waters, late in a prizefight. Hopkins has thrived in that environment, again and again.
Bernard Hopkins Will Win If...
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Bernard Hopkins is one of the great boxing technicians of all time. He'll need all the tricks in his bag to finesse the Russian monster, Sergey Kovalev.
Hopkins has to control the distance and angles and be ready to let his hands go and stand his ground in spots when the fearless Kovalev is advancing. He'll need to slow the pace way down, but be prepared the meet the younger man's pace in spots at the same time.
Hopkins has the reach advantage and will no doubt look to fight on the outside in spots. But he's not winning against a man 18 years his junior by turning the fight into a track meet. He's going to need to make the fight awkward and sluggish.
Hopkins needs to negate Kovalev's jab by getting off first with his own lead left. Hopkins should fire his own jab, while looking to step away from Kovalev's dangerous right hand. But once he has slipped beyond range of Kovalev's jab, he should move back in behind a lead right and clinch.
Hopkins is a master of the clinch and if he can consistently work out of the clinch and into a dominant angle on Kovalev, he will have an outstanding chance to win. His best chances to score on Kovalev will come immediately after working out of the clinch.
Hopkins is a great defensive fighter and he'll need to slip and bob as well as he ever has to avoid Kovalev's heavy arsenal. But ultimately, Hopkins' only chance to win this fight—albeit a slight one—is if he can mount a great offensive stand.
Hopkins has to slow down the fight and make it ugly. But he also has to put Kovalev in the unfamiliar and frustrating position of playing defense. Hopkins has to disrupt Kovalev's timing by beating him to the punch and harass him from awkward angles.
Sergey Kovalev Will Win If...
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There is a vast gulf in ability between Cedric Agnew and Bernard Hopkins. Still, I think that fight was a valuable one for Sergey Kovalev in preparation for this showdown.
Agnew is a fighter with an outstanding amateur background who had been studiously avoided in his professional career. Against Kovalev, he didn't win rounds, but he did combine a tight defense with a willingness to stand and trade when under pressure to greatly slow down Kovalev's dangerous offense in the first half of the fight.
Kovalev's response to this was telling. He remained patient and methodical, studying Agnew and looking for the right openings to land his shots. In Round 7, he sent Agnew packing with a jab to the body.
Kovalev will need that same intelligent patience against Hopkins. Hopkins will try to frustrate him and make him angry. Kovalev has to remain as cool as the long Russian winter.
Technically, Kovalev has to concentrate on keeping Hopkins in front of him and preventing the ageless alien from slipping around him. He's also got to pay attention in the clinches and use his strength advantage to prevent Hopkins from maneuvering him into dangerous positions.
If Kovalev remains patient and avoids getting finessed into bad positions, he should be able to methodically impose his power and do what nobody has done before: make Bernard Hopkins look something like his true age.
Prediction
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When I first saw that I had the assignment to write this preview, I was excited. I have been looking forward to this fight more than any other this year.
But my next feeling was one of anxiety. Bernard Hopkins has made a history of making boxing writers look bad when they pick against him. And yet, that is exactly what I feel like I have to do here.
I think Kovalev is too patient and too physically strong for the kind of tricks Hopkins will try to play on him. I have no doubt that Hopkins will have his moments and give Kovalev his toughest test to date. But Kovalev will ride those moments out and continue to score with heavy shots when the opportunity arises.
The kind of punches Kovalev lands can age an opponent in a hurry, even one like Hopkins, who has seemed to live outside the normal laws of aging for so long. Hopkins' chin is legendary, and he's never come close to being stopped.
But I see this one ending in the later rounds, when Hopkins, or perhaps his longtime trainer, Naazim Richardson, see the wisdom of retiring in the corner.
This is a case when I'd genuinely like to be wrong. At my age, it's pretty special when you can still cheer for a professional athlete who started his career while you were still in high school. If Hopkins can pull this one off, it will be a great night for over-40 gym rats everywhere.
But I don't see it happening.
Either way, the winner of this fight will walk away with three of the four belts at light heavyweight. Hopefully the victor of this bout will be able to make a true unification fight with lineal and WBC champion Adonis Stevenson early next year.
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