NFL Week 9 Predictions: Full Odds and Upset Picks for Key Matchups

November is when the NFL season starts to ramp up. September and October are all about teams building an identity. Now, with half the season left to go, these franchises are trying to maintain that foundation and prove they can get better. 

Some teams aren't built to last the duration of a 16-game season, so those who have enjoyed surprising starts to the 2014 season won't sustain that success. Others have dealt with injuries and/or suspensions to key players who will start coming back, potentially changing the landscape of a playoff race. 

Whatever the case may be, Week 9 is loaded with more storylines than you can imagine. Looking at the odds for each game, these teams are the best bets to pull off an upset. 

Matchup, Spread	Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5)	Bengals, 31-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-7)	Buccaneers, 17-14
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3)	Cardinals, 24-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (Pick 'Em)	Eagles, 23-16
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)	Chiefs, 24-13
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1)	Chargers, 27-24
Washington at Minnesota Vikings (Pick 'Em)	Washington, 20-17
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)	49ers, 28-17
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New England Patriots	Patriots, 31-28
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-15.5)	Seahawks, 27-10
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick 'Em)	Steelers, 24-20
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at New York Giants	Colts, 34-24

Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

This is the hardest game on the schedule to forecast because so much of it comes down to Tony Romo's status after suffering a back injury last week against Washington. 

ESPN's Ed Werder tried to provide an update on the situation, though it was basically the same thing we knew before:

That was compounded by a later report from Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas, stating that Romo has two small fractures in his back. He also says that "there remains a chance" Romo could play against Arizona. 

Even if Romo is able to play, how effective will he be? His back has been a source of problems in the past, and Washington exposed flaws in Dallas' pass protection against the blitz last week.

The Cardinals defense poses serious problems because it's one of the more blitz-happy units in the NFL, per Pro Football Talk on NBC Sports Network:

Dallas' defense also had issues defending Washington quarterback Colt McCoy last week. The 28-year-old made his first start since 2011 and went 25-of-30 for 299 yards Carson Palmer completed fewer than half of his passes against Philadelphia in Week 8 but took shots down the field that paid off big time. 

In the strength vs. strength matchup of the day, Arizona's top-ranked run defense goes up against DeMarco Murray and Dallas' top-ranked rushing attack. No one has stopped Murray this season, though the Cowboys forgot him in critical situations last week. 

Arizona hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in its last 17 games, though it hasn't faced the most difficult slate of running teams. San Diego, Denver, Washington and Oakland all rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game; Philadelphia and New York are 14th and 15th. 

If Weeden starts the game, Arizona should be the favorite and will win outright. If Romo starts, it muddies things, because the Dallas passing attack combined with Murray's ability is hard to ignore. When in doubt, go with what you know. 

Cardinals 24, Cowboys 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at Cleveland Browns

Bill Haber/Associated Press

This game has playoff ramifications for just one of the two teams, as the 4-3 Cleveland Browns are still flirting with a postseason spot. The bad news is that the Browns appear to be in the midst of a downward spiral.

Cleveland's defense, which was supposed to be a strength after the offseason additions of safety Donte Whitner and linebacker Karlos Dansby, has been awful. It's allowing the fourth-most yards per game and a mediocre 21.7 points per game. 

The offense has been an enigma recently. Brian Hoyer got back on track against Oakland, but the Raiders can make anyone look good. The Browns couldn't run the ball in that game, totaling 39 yards on 25 carries. Oakland allows 130.1 yards per game on the ground. 

Zac Jackson of Fox Sports Ohio highlighted the key matchup of the game, which centers around Tampa Bay's playmaking wide receivers against Cleveland's porous secondary:

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Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the Bucs' tall and talented receivers, vs. the Browns secondary is the key matchup of the game. This means you, Justin Gilbert. Joe Haden appears to have shaken his early-season slump and Tashaun Gipson is leading the NFL in interceptions, but this is a different kind of challenge. Mike Glennon isn't mobile; he wants to chuck it deep and let Evans and Jackson go get it.

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The Buccaneers' stats are bad but they aren't necessarily as bad as you think. They're skewed greatly thanks to two losses—a 56-14 blowout defeat to Atlanta and a 48-17 loss to Baltimore—but keep in mind they have also lost two overtime games and two other games by a combined eight points. 

Ultimately, a game like this comes down to trust. Neither team has earned much of it so far this season. The Buccaneers have nowhere to go but up with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans on the outside. Hoyer will be playing without his safety net, as tight end Jordan Cameron has been ruled out with a concussion. 

Prediction: Buccaneeers 17, Browns 14

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+2.5)

The main event of the day unquestionably is the 16th career matchup between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. It couldn't come at a better time, because New England is playing its best football and Denver has been rolling virtually all year. 

Brady and Manning enter November coming off nearly identical performances last month, per ESPN Stats & Info:

Since all of the focus will be on the quarterbacks, it's only fitting that the difference in the game will come on defense. New England has the league's second-ranked pass defense and more depth in the secondary than the last time these teams met in the AFC Championship Game.

New England cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner match up well with Denver's receivers. Revis can shadow Emmanuel Sanders, while Browner has the size and physical style to be in Demaryius Thomas' face, though Greg Cosell of Shutdow Corner ponders the idea of Bill Belichick going off script to keep Denver at bay:

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Patriots coach Bill Belichick does unconventional things. He could have his defensive end hit Sanders as he releases. Belichick does things like that; he could sacrifice a pass rush for a moment and hit Sanders, which would slow down Manning. That could be an effective strategy. I have no idea how Belichick will play it, I’m just throwing out possible tactics.

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On the other side, Denver's defense has been fantastic this season. It ranks fourth in yards allowed, sixth in points allowed and is tied for sixth in sacks. New England had problems protecting Brady earlier this season, but seems to have figured things out, as Brady has been sacked only five times during the Patriots' four-game winning streak.

There is also the question of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who had his best game of the year last week with nine catches on nine targets for 149 yards and three touchdowns. Denver corner Aqib Talib may draw him as an assignment, though he can't match Gronk's 6'6", 265-pound frame. 

These are the two best teams in the AFC. Denver is probably more talented from top to bottom, but New England is hitting its stride and playing at home. That's enough to pick the Patriots this time around. 

Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 28

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