Realistic Expectations for Jonathan Trott's England Return

When Jonathan Trott bowed out of the Ashes tour after the first Test in Brisbane last November due to what was at the time referred to as a stress-related illness, it was widely assumed to be the end of his England career.

The only real precedents did not suggest Trott was on a path that could lead back to the England fold.

Two years previously Sussex all-rounder Michael Yardy had flown home from the 2011 World Cup in Sri Lanka citing depression, effectively ending his international career.

Of more pertinence in Trott's case was that of Marcus Trescothick. Like Trott, Trescothick was an integral part of a hugely successful side and like Trott, he returned home from an Ashes series citing stress-related illness.

Trescothick later made himself unavailable for the 2007 World Twenty20 in South Africa following inclusion in the original 30-man squad. After withdrawing from a Somerset pre-season tour to the UAE in 2008 he announced his retirement from international cricket in March that year.

Following a 16-month hiatus from the England side where he remained determined to return to the international fold, Trescothick was forced to concede that the pressures of touring made it impossible to manage his illness, something he was able to do on the county circuit to prolong his first-class career.

After one aborted effort early in the summer, Trott eventually made a highly productive comeback for Warwickshire this summer. Crediting renowned sports psychologist Dr. Steve Peters for rehabilitating him, Trott insisted he was ready to resume his England career if called upon.

In September this year, Trott announced that he had effectively been given a clean bill of health from the ECB and that his selection for England duty was now possible.

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Jonathan Trott says he is ready for an England recall: "The ECB and I have had our final get-together. I've been signed off by the ECB."

— Telegraph Sport (@TelegraphSport) September 16, 2014"

Many still felt this was a vain hope, yet Trott's inclusion in the Lions squad to tour South Africa announced last week has suddenly made the possibility very real.

Here we consider realistic expectations for Jonathan Trott on his England return, starting with what should be expected of him on the forthcoming Lions tour before looking at his prospects of a return to Test cricket.

Expectations for Lions Tour

Based on his form for Warwickshire throughout the county season alone, it seems fair to expect Trott to have a prosperous Lions tour with the bat.

In both the County Championship first division and the Bears' run to the Royal London One-Day Cup final Trott excelled, as detailed in the county averages on BBC Sport. In the longer format for which Trott's game is best suited, he scored 620 first-class runs in 13 innings at an average of 47.69. He posted three centuries in total including 104 against a strong Durham attack in the final game of the season.

In the shorter format, where Trott has at times been criticised for scoring too slowly, his record was even more impressive as he compiled 488 runs, making two hundreds and averaging 54.22 for every visit to the crease.

Competition	Innings	Runs	Average	Centuries	Fifties
County Championship	13	620	47.69	3	1
One-Day Cup	9	488	54.22	2	3

Set against his undoubted ability and proven good form are two factors. Firstly, the impact of touring on his situational anxiety is impossible to determine until Trott is actually out there.

It should be noted, though, that Trott's issues did not appear to be specifically brought on by touring. Though he returned home early from the Ashes tour, he also abandoned his Warwickshire comeback in April. In an interview with Matt Lawton in the Daily Mail, he explained that even being at home did not help:

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There was a ticking clock; knowing that you had to go back. Even in the hotel, or at home, it was like a ticking clock; like a sentence. Knowing that you're going back to the ground. You want the night to never end. You get to bad places.

"

Trott explained to Lawton that the anxiety he felt was the same whether it was a Test match, a county game or a charity game. After starting work with Dr Steve Peters, Trott explained his immediate feeling that he was on the path to managing his condition, stating "I'd found someone who understood me. Someone I could speak to. I called [wife] Abi and I just said 'I'll be fine now.'"

With Trott able to effectively manage the condition that had rendered him unable to play county cricket to find such a rich vein of form in that competition, there is no reason to believe the same methods will not serve him well in South Africa.

The second factor to consider is Trott's record in England colours in South Africa, which is below the high standards he set throughout his 49-Test career.

In his one previous tour to South Africa, Trott struggled for form. Following a century on debut to help England seal the 2009 Ashes at The Oval and two fifties in three ODIs in South Africa prior to the Test series, Trott passed 50 only once in eight innings, averaging 33.91 with a top score of 71, as detailed on ESPN Cricinfo.

Though disappointing, Trott's form in South Africa should not be seen as a reflection of any notable issues with conditions there. Firstly, he grew up playing cricket in South Africa and scored prolifically enough to represent the country of his birth at both under-15 and under-19 level.

Secondly, representing the Lions against South Africa A, he will not face bowlers of the quality of Morne Morkel and Dale Steyn, who dismissed him five times out of seven between them, the latter clean bowling him twice in Cape Town.

A combination of Trott's county form, his seemingly effective method for managing his mental state and his familiarity with the conditions in South Africa suggest that he is capable of having a highly productive tour.

It is not unrealistic to expect a player of his calibre to finish the tour as one of England Lions' leading run-scorers, in the process making a strong case for England to bring his recovery full circle with a Test recall.

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Should the England Lions be a second team or for those who could potentially move up? I reckon the former and that's why Trott should be in

— Alec Swann (@RonSwann76) October 29, 2014"

Expectations for recall to England Test team

If it is realistic to expect Trott to have a successful Lions tour, how feasible is it that he will force his way back into the Test side?

It seems safe to assume Trott will not play limited overs cricket for England again since he is one of three players, along with Sam Robson and Adam Riley, who will be replaced when the tour switches to one-day cricket.

Furthermore, the completion of the World Cup in March will see the four-year cycle start again and the emphasis is likely to be on regeneration, placing faith in younger players likely to peak when the World Cup comes to England in 2019.

For Test cricket the focus will be far more short-term. Reclaiming the Ashes in 2015 will be the primary focus, and despite his struggles against Mitchell Johnson in Brisbane, which in hindsight can be put down to more than just technical issues, a player of Trott's class cannot be easily disregarded.

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Good to see Jonathan Trott back in England colours, @ECB_cricket will need him firing on all cylinders come next summer! #Ashes15

— Tom Moody (@TomMoodyCricket) October 28, 2014"

His selection on the Lions tour demonstrates that the England selectors still see Trott as a viable option, so the two factors to consider in assessing the likelihood of him playing Test cricket again are whether or not there is an opening in the current side and whether or not Trott is the best option to fill it.

After a demoralising home series defeat to Sri Lanka and a crushing defeat against India at Lord's, England recovered well to thrash India three times and take the series. The victories were powered by a new-look middle order where Gary Ballance, filling Trott's old slot at No. 3, and Joe Root in particular excelled.

The Yorkshire pair had topped the averages in the two-Test series with Sri Lanka as per ESPN Cricinfo, with Root averaging 86.33 after an unbeaten double-century at Lord's and Ballance 67 after making a maiden ton in the same Test.

They repeated this feat in the longer series against India, both scoring more than 500 runs, including two hundreds each. Root once again topped the averages, according to ESPN Cricinfo, with 103.6 over seven knocks, while Ballance ranked second with an average of 71.85.

The place vacated by Trott has been well and truly filled, with many commentators viewing Ballance as an upgrade due to his ability to compile a similar wealth of runs but with better pacing, notably accelerating his scoring as his innings progresses.

"

"In Trott, England found their best No.3 of recent times. In Ballance, they might just have gone one better." http://t.co/FDEo98BCaA

— AllOutCricket (@AllOutCricket) July 18, 2014"

Ballance and Root appear to have cemented their places, but Jonathan Agnew raised the intriguing prospect in his BBC Sport column that Trott could fulfil a different role that has become problematic for England.

Since Andrew Strauss retired in 2012, England have tried Nick Compton, Joe Root, Michael Carberry and Sam Robson as Alastair Cook's opening partner with nobody yet convincing.

Robson's omission from the central contract list and his return to the Lions ranks leaves a vacancy, and Agnew suggested this could be Trott's best chance of a return:

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There is also the question of where Trott would fit in to the current Test side, but that simply adds an extra layer of intrigue to this Lions tour. Trott's old spot of number three has been filled very successfully by Ballance, while Ian Bell and Root both played well at numbers four and five. However, Trott has long been talked of as a potential opener and there is a place at the top order available alongside Alastair Cook.

"

Added to this prospect is the heavily packed schedule. With 17 Tests in a nine-month period following the World Cup, suddenly it is not so difficult to see Trott featuring at some point in the not too distant future. With so many Tests in such a short space of time, there may well be ramifications for players' form and fitness and the possible need for some players to take rest periods.

"

Been sighing at the crazy England cricket schedule. No Tests now for seven months. Then 17 Test matches in the nine months thereafter.

— Cricket Yorkshire (@cricketyorks) August 16, 2014"

Given the opening at the top of the order and the probability that England may struggle to field the same top six throughout such a trying schedule, the question turns to whether or not Trott can stake a claim to be the next cab off the rank with a strong Lions tour either as an opener or in the middle-order.

As strong as Trott's season was, if England had a Test tomorrow it would almost certainly be Yorkshire opener Adam Lyth who would fill the void. Lyth had a stunning season, propelling Yorkshire to the title with 1,489 runs at an average of 67.68. He was consistency personified, posting six centuries and six half-centuries in 23 innings.

His opening partner Alex Lees did not do badly alongside him either, mustering 971 runs at 44.14 including two centuries and five fifties to book a place on the Lions tour alongside his county colleague.

It will be tempting for the Lions to stick with an opening partnership that has proven so successful for Yorkshire, and with Sam Robson having posted a Test century opening the batting earlier this year and clearly not out of the reckoning, it is hard to see Trott being afforded the opportunity to prove his worth as an opener.

Alex Hales is another slightly more left-field option to open next time England throw on the whites. Many, including former England captain Michael Vaughan, feel he could play a similar role to that played by David Warner for Australia. And he finally started translating his form into the four-day game this year with 954 runs at 50.21 per knock.

"

Should Alex Hales replace Sam Robson as England's Test opener? @MichaelVaughan thinks so http://t.co/h5dc8Jvgts #bbccricket #EngvInd

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) August 16, 2014"

Hales will have to make his case through dominant performances for England at the World Cup. Sharing a dressing room with Eoin Morgan will provide a nice reminder that outstanding performances in ODI cricket can be compelling when the selectors consider their options for Test cricket.

Should an opening appear in the middle of the order for whatever reason over the course of the 17 Tests England play between April 2015 and February 2016, Trott will still have his work cut out to force his way in with a number of talented young batsmen making the trip to South Africa with the Lions.

James Taylor is almost a veteran of the Lions side having played for and captained them on numerous occasions over the last four years. He racked up 242 not out against Sri Lanka A earlier this year and, encouraged by his call-up for the forthcoming ODI series in Sri Lanka, Taylor will hope to press his case for another shot at Test cricket.

James Vince also piled on the runs this summer, albeit in division two of the County Championship, making 1,525 runs at 61 with four centuries. He will be hoping to show England that second division runs should not be considered lower currency by replicating this form with the Lions.

Player	Innings	Runs	High Score	Average	Centuries	Fifties
Adam Lyth	23	1,489	251	67.68	6	6
James Vince	28	1,525	240	61	4	7
Jonathan Trott	13	620	164	47.69	3	1
Alex Lees	22	971	138	44.14	2	5
James Taylor	28	992	126	38.15	1	8

Whether it be the current vacancy to partner Cook at the start of the innings or a slot that opens up between No. 3 and No. 5 for reasons not yet apparent, there are plenty of candidates younger than Trott who arguably have a stronger case for Test selection at this moment in time.

Summary

It is realistic to expect Trott to thrive on the Lions tour. All the indications are that he has found peace with his situational anxiety, and his methods for managing it have helped him to regain the sort of form at county level that gained him England honours in the first place.

Despite an unproductive tour early in his England career, South Africa is as good a place as any overseas for him to start scoring runs again with three lions on his shirt, having played domestic cricket extensively in the land of his birth.

Expecting Trott to make the step up to the Test side is less realistic. While the talent undoubtedly remains, the circumstances are far from ideal as his replacement at No. 3, Gary Ballance, was outstanding over the summer. Ian Bell and Joe Root are equally established in the side with the latter statistically more impressive than even Ballance this summer.

One route back into the England side is an unfamiliar opening slot where there is a vacancy. At this stage, however, others have a stronger claim to that spot, most notably Yorkshire pair Adam Lyth and Alex Lees who were anointed PCA Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year after fine seasons opening the batting together in the title-winning side.

The one glimmer of hope for Trott is that the draining England schedule of 17 Tests in nine months will create more vacancies than would normally be expected in such a time due to the unknown toll this may have on players' form and fitness, both physical and mental.

Even in the middle order, though, there are arguably more viable candidates than Trott right now. After the positive impression youngsters such as Root, Ballance and Moeen Ali made this summer, it is easy to see England preferring a continuation of the rebuilding process and selecting the likes of Taylor and Vince ahead of Trott.

Realistically, Trott will need to score an eye-catching quantity of runs in South Africa to force himself to the head of the queue. Based on past performances this is not beyond him.

A perfect storm of Trott continuing to show form while others lose it and a vacancy arising at a key point in the Ashes could yet create a scenario where a wise old head like Trott with proven class at that level could be the most sensible option.

As pleased as most people will be to see Trott back in the reckoning for England, realistically there are too many circumstances that would need to work in Trott's favour for a return to the Test arena to become reality. Hope, rather than expectation, should be the watchword for the time being.