AAC Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2014-15 Season
The American Athletic Conference enters its sophomore year of existence and already suffered from some realignment. Louisville emigrated to the ACC and Rutgers to the Big Ten. Don’t stub your toe on that national championship trophy on the way out.
The University of Connecticut, as a No. 7 seed, won the national championship in April in head coach Kevin Ollie’s second season (his first in the tournament) in the team's first season in the AAC.
The AAC is ready for its second year, and it appears to have a chunk of four teams that could make people hungry for hoops.
Now, at last, we’re on to the preview of the AAC, and we’ll see if a sophomore slump is in store (in Stoors?).
Top Storylines
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How Will the National Champion UConn Huskies Fare?
If a seventh seed won the tournament 10, 15, 20 years ago that would have been a shock. Last year’s Huskies were a shock, yes, but they didn’t have to be. College basketball is more competitive than ever.
Television exposure has widened the middle, so we should expect to see more Nos. 5-12 upsets and shouldn’t necessarily be surprised when a No. 7 UConn team wins the whole thing or advances deep.
Dan Hanner of Real GM writes:
"Basically any guard that dreams of leading his team to NCAA glory has to believe that those goals can be achieved at UConn. From Khalid El-Amin to Kemba Walker to Shabazz Napier, Connecticut is a program where guards leave a permanent legacy. Thus perhaps it is not a surprise that Connecticut has ridiculous guard depth this year.
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So, it appears, UConn has the foot soldiers to make a run through March and possibly an AAC title to boot.
Will Larry Brown’s Mustangs Surge to the Top?
Southern Methodist University was snubbed from the tourney in March and now must play without China-bound Emmanuel Mudiay. Mudiay, who was close to committing to SMU, opted to take his talents to Guangdong.
Last season saw the Mustangs play a pretty weak nonconference schedule. It appears Brown addressed that by scheduling at Indiana, at Gonzaga, home to Arkansas and at Michigan. Maybe going .500 in those games will sway the selection committee come March.
Dan Hanner writes:
"The reality is that several bench players are prepared to break out and take on larger roles. Keith Frazier was a Top 30 guard prospect last year, and as a rising sophomore, there is a strong chance he becomes a star this year. Former Top 10 JUCO recruit Yanick Moreira was injured last year, but when fully healthy he was dominant.
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SMU will threaten the top of the AAC.
How Will Kelvin Sampson's Return to the Bench Shake Up the League?
It's been six years since Sampson paraded a college sideline. He's back and taking up residence at the University of Houston.
He got burned a few years back for scandals involving phone calls and texts. Sampson now brings a record of 496-271 to Houston and will notch that 500-win milestone some time this year.
Many of the players transferred, so Sampson will be starting fresh.
The Favorites: SMU and UConn
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The AAC is essentially a two-horse race—this with one of the teams sporting a horse as a logo. What a world!
The defending national champions are atop many pundits’ lists as the team to win the AAC. The Mustangs are that other team looking to step up to the top of the conference.
B/R's Kerry Miller wrote of SMU, “Better yet, the Mustangs will have the deepest and most talented bench in this conference. In addition to that projected starting five, Larry Brown will have some key reserves in Ben Moore, Cannen Cunningham, Ryan Manuel, Sterling Brown and Tolbert.
Rather than asking how far the Mustangs should fall, we should instead be legitimately pondering if they have what it takes to win this conference.
Yet UConn still maintains the edge in a conference weakened by the exit of Louisville. Yes, UConn loses Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels, Niels Giffey, Lasan Kromah, Tyler Olander and Leon Tolksdorf, but it managed to reload with a solid group capable of winning the conference.
Miller wrote, “But even though Connecticut lost four of its five primary players and leading scorers, it still has to be considered the team to beat in the AAC with Louisville gone and Cincinnati losing a ton in its own right.
There are no surprises here. It’s UConn and SMU in a match race to the top.
The Challenger: Memphis
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It appears the one school that may threaten the top two is Memphis. Much of that has to do with the curious eligibility of Kedren Johnson.
Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com wrote:
"He's a 6-foot-4 combo guard who averaged 13.5 points for Vanderbilt last season and immediately gives the Tigers' backcourt some hope. Before him, the team had no guards with a minute of college basketball experience in regular-season games.
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Yes, Johnson comes with some baggage. But many players do, and that doesn’t always translate into dysfunction and malcontent. Memphis finished 24-10 and 12-6 in the conference last season.
According to KenPom.com, Memphis was 52nd in adjusted offense and 54th in adjusted defense last season, this with the 39th-toughest schedule.
Memphis had a strong win last season against Louisville, and duplicating those kinds of efforts make the Tigers a threat to the top two in this conference.
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The Bottom Dwellers: Tulane and South Florida
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There is definitely a line of demarcation between the haves and the have-nots in this conference.
Tulane will be in the cellar crawl space of the AAC domicile. According to KenPom.com, Tulane ranked 282nd in the land last year out of Conference USA. Now it steps into a conference with three very strong teams atop the league and a competitive middle that puts it at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
The Green Wave finished 17-17 last season, but according Kerry Miller, they could be the worst .500 17-win team to ever play.
The Green Wave will be green with jealousy as the other teams swoop in and out of New Orleans before Tulane can say Emeril Lagasse.
Another team that will join Tulane in the lower third of the standings is South Florida. The Bulls finished 3-15 in the AAC last season while losing eight players from that roster. That may be a good thing, turning over the leaves.
Miller said it best, “Fewer people flee South Florida during a Category 5 hurricane.”
The sun may shine brighter on South Florida with the signing of first-year head coach Orlando Antigua to a five-year deal. He spent many years as John Calipari’s assistant, and if he didn’t learn a thing or two about recruiting then shame on him.
Antigua spent five years playing for the Harlem Globetrotters. That ought to give rival fans some grist for the mill.
Yes, the Bulls will be toward the bottom as Antigua rebuilds, but if he learned anything from Coach Cal, Antigua could be ruling South Florida.
Best Rivalry: Central Florida vs. South Florida
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For such a young conference with teams coming in from all over the East Coast there’s no true rival like Duke and North Carolina, so maybe it’s best to look within the state that has two teams from the AAC.
In the AAC there’s the University of Central Florida and South Florida, so it’s up to them to start up a rivalry worthy of the ages. Maybe it doesn’t even need to be fabricated.
Shannon Owens-Green wrote in the Orlando Sentinel, “CF and USF’s testy rivalry continues to be a key piece of the American Athletic Conference’s future.
That sentiment was echoed by Todd Stansbury, athletic director at UCF. He said, "Our main priority was, of course, regardless of what we ended up doing, we just wanted to make sure that we were playing USF every year. We feel that we are natural rivals and we have the ability to elevate our rivalry to one of the premier national rivalries in the country."
Now, to be clear, this story from the Sentinel referred to the rivalry between these schools on the football field. But these things bleed over into other sports. Expect these teams to be just as passionate and aggressive on the hardwood.
Coaches Under the Most Pressure
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Kevin Ollie, UConn
Kevin Ollie bought himself some Calhounian good faith by winning the national championship. Ollie won’t be paying for a steak or a finger of bourbon anywhere in Stoors anytime soon.
Still, Ollie isn’t immune from pressure this year. He needs to prove that last season was not a fluke. The sentiment was that UConn wasn’t the best team in college basketball, just the hottest team in the tournament.
In UConn’s first 34 games, its adjusted offense was 109.5, adjusted defense was 92.8, good for 25th overall. In the tournament UConn’s numbers in those categories were 120.5 and 89.1, good for first.
Can Ollie back up last year’s tournament run? He’ll have to do it with the target on his back. He won the championship under the shadow of Jim Calhoun, so if anyone can rise up to the pressure it’s Ollie.
Larry Brown, SMU
Larry Brown enters his third season at SMU, and it’s about that time for him to take the Mustangs to the next level. The Mustangs were snubbed from the tournament last season, which threw some jet fuel on the bonfire.
Jeff Borzello of CBSSports.com wrote, “The Mustangs had four top-40 wins, including a sweep of Connecticut—but those were the only top-100 wins they had. They also had three sub-100 losses and played an awful nonconference schedule."
SMU scheduled better nonconference games this year to give it the benefit of the doubt. If it loses, at least they’ll be losses of higher quality. Those teams are Gonzaga, Indiana, Arkansas and Michigan. Will it pay off? That’s Brown’s job, and the pressure is on.
Orlando Antigua, USF
Orlando Antigua comes to the South Florida looking to rebuild a program that lost a ton of players. Maybe they were told to transfer; maybe they left on their own accord.
Antigua has the pedigree. He’s been on John Calipari’s bench since his Memphis days, so naturally Antigua learned a thing or two about big-game coaching and recruiting.
Antigua said, “I have been preparing for the challenge of leading a program my entire life and I have a deep belief and passion that USF basketball can thrive and is ideally positioned in a community as rich and diverse as the Tampa Bay area."
That’s all nice coach-speak, but with his experience behind one of the game’s great college minds, expectations at USF will be huge.
Best Frontcourt
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Memphis returns Shaq Goodwin, a monster presence in the middle, for a Tiger team that could threaten the top of the AAC. He's the type of player who's on the ball, a veritable tornado under the basket.
He exits a 2013-14 season where he was an all-AAC pick. He's a Tasmanian devil.
USA Today Sports' Scott Gleeson wrote:
"Goodwin (11.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg), a 6-9 junior, is...a high-energy forward who wears opponents down near the hoop whether it be with second-chance buckets or improving post moves. That aggressiveness leads to steals and blocks on the defensive end, where he's invaluable.
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That makes him a leader for the Tigers' frontcourt. Throw in sophomore Austin Nichols, a 6'8" forward who averaged 9.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, and Memphis—though young—has a frontcourt it can count on, a frontcourt it needs to count on.
Best Backcourt
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Ryan Boatright and former McDonald's All-American Rodney Purvis hope to anchor a backcourt that lost the dynamic Shabazz Napier.
Purvis transferred in from North Carolina State where he underperformed. He left Raleigh and sat on the bench watching his team do the unthinkable through March and April. Now he's ready to fill Napier's role as top Husky.
"I just like to have fun, do whatever I can to help the team win,” Purvis said on SportzEdge.com. “Use my athleticism, use my speed and my shooting ability to create for myself and others.”
Boatright racked up 61 steals but also had 76 turnovers. Shoring that up will lead to a solid backcourt looking to defend its title from last season. Boatright averaged 11.8 points a game last season.
Add to that the highly touted Daniel Hamilton, and UConn has both skill and depth at the guard position.
Should Boatright and Purvis elevate their games, they can make up as best they can for the loss of Napier. The fact that they're older should give fans in Stoors some confidence. How much is entirely up to the fans. And who knows? Maybe Hamilton will be one of the strong freshmen in the country to accent a talented duo of upperclassmen.
Freshmen to Watch
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Dominic Magee, Memphis
A 4-star recruit, the 6'3" Magee, who was courted by Kentucky, UCLA and Arizona, among others, will look to give the Tigers a spark. Magee is the type of player expected to slash to the hoop and draw the defense as well as fouls.
He chose Memphis in part because the team made him a priority. His family means something to him, and the proximity of Memphis to Harvey, Louisiana, made a big difference.
I'm not too far from home, but I am away from home," Magee told The Commercial Appeal. "That's real good. My mom and dad can watch me play, and my (one-year-old) son too. I'm just blessed that I was able to get this opportunity. I'm happy I didn't let it pass me up."
With Shaq Goodwin there to clean up any messes, Magee could have a standout first year for the Tigers.
Daniel Hamilton, UConn
UConn’s Daniel Hamilton, an ESPN Top 30 recruit, has a professional pedigree. His brother Gary played for the University of Miami and now plays professionally in Japan. His other brother, Jordan, plays for the Toronto Raptors.
Hopes are high for this talented player. He’s a huge grab for Kevin Ollie, UConn’s head coach, a man looking to maintain the high bar set by winning the championship last season.
There's a connection between Olllie and Hamilton: Both played for Crenshaw High School. Ollie was a standout there 25 years ago, and Hamilton played for Crenshaw as a freshman and sophomore.
Per David Borges of the New Haven Register, Ollie told Daniel, “One of the best things my mother did for me was put me on that plane to UConn. I walked the same streets in L.A. you walked. ... We can relate and talk about the same things.”
So let’s see how Hamilton adjusts to an entirely different level of ball.
Obi Enechionyia, Temple
Temple gets a big body in Enechionyia. He's 6'9" and 210 pounds. If the Owls promise to bounce back—or give signs of bouncing back—from their terrible 9-22 record from last year, Enechionyia will have to step up from the opening tip.
Enechionyia said in The Philadelphia Inquirer, "Before I was playing soccer, I always knew that if I got to a certain height I'll start playing basketball. I started playing basketball in eighth grade and I was a benchwarmer until 10th grade. It takes hard work to get a scholarship to anywhere in a certain amount of years."
He appears to be a confident young man, and even though he wasn't an ESPN Top 100 recruit, Enechionyia is primed for the big stage.
He didn't start playing competitive ball until he was in the 10th grade, so he doesn't have a ton of experience. He also doesn't have a ton of miles on those legs, and that can something to watch in 2014-15.
All-Conference Teams
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First-Team All-AAC
Nic Moore, Guard, SMU: It's up to Moore to power this offense. He averaged 13.6 points, 4.9 assists and 2.5 steals last season. If he outplays that he could be a Player of the Year candidate.
Ryan Boatright, Guard, Connecticut: Boatright has huge shoes to fill with the departure of All-American Shabazz Napier. He's a senior. He's a leader, and he'll help the young talent as this team defends its title.
Will Cummings, Guard, Temple: Cummings had a breakout year last season, scoring 16.8 points per game, which trailed only five other players in the AAC.
Markus Kennedy, Forward, SMU: He'll be a big presence in the paint. He comes off a season where he averaged 12.4 points and 7.1 boards per game. If SMU wins the AAC it'll be on Kennedy's big shoulders.
Shaq Goodwin, Forward, Memphis: A beast in the paint, Goodwin will anchor the frontcourt, allowing his team's guards to shine (and mature) as the Tigers look to climb in the AAC.
Second-Team All-AAC
Daniel Hamilton, Guard, UConn
Kedren Johnson, Guard, Memphis
Josh Brown, Guard, Temple
L.J. Rose, Guard, Houston
Austin Nichols, Forward, Memphis
Regular-Season Standings
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With SMU a runner-up in the NIT and UConn coming in off a national championship, it looks like this could be a two-horse race.
UConn should take a slight step backward, and SMU appears primed for a great run through the AAC.
1. SMU
2. UConn
3. Memphis
4. Cincinnati
5. Tulsa
6. Temple
7. Houston
8. UCF
9. East Carolina
10. Tulane
11. USF
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