Week 9 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

If those who play NFL spreads from Las Vegas have not figured it out yet, this season is one to take the cautious approach.

They say hindsight is most astute, but it is readily apparent that a number of bettors are set to lose money on the Week 9 lines. There are favored contenders who, at times, have looked like pretenders. There are scrappy, possibly cliche underdogs that have the propensity to ruin spreads with ease.

By this point, it should be easy to see which teams are reliable or not. Las Vegas has been quite timid in its lines as of late, but it seems to agree with this notion now that there are several major spreads on display for Week 9.

Be careful, as the house wants bettors to get comfortable.

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	Reason
New Orleans at Carolina (Thurs., Oct. 30)	NO -3 (48)	NO	Two teams headed in opposite directions on a short week favors the one with momentum.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland	CLE -7 (44)	CLE	Cleveland is much, much better than Tampa Bay, which says a lot about both.
Arizona at Dallas	DAL -4 (N/A)	DAL	Dallas is the best team in the league right now and has an offense that will abuse one of the worst pass defenses.
Philadelphia at Houston	PHI -2 (48)	PHI	As long as Philadelphia totes a balanced attack, the Eagles can win.
NY Jets at Kansas City	KC -10 (41.5)	KC	Next question.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati	CIN -13.5 (43)	JAC	Cincinnati seems to play up and down to the competition this year. The spread is entirely too large.
San Diego at Miami	MIA -1 (44)	SD	San Diego remains one of the best teams in the league and will turn things around against a struggling Miami offense.
Washington at Minnesota	WAS -1 (N/A)	MIN	Minnesota has a stingy defense that can take advantage of a miserable quarterback situation.
St. Louis at San Francisco	SF -10 (44)	STL	See analysis below.
Denver at New England	DEN -3.5 (55)	DEN	New England is hot right now, but Peyton Manning is even better.
Oakland at Seattle	SEA -15.5 (43)	OAK	See analysis below.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh	EVEN (47.5)	BAL	Baltimore is better on both sides of the football and will come out angry after a divisional loss.
Indianapolis at NY Giants (Mon., Nov. 3)	IND -3.5 (51)	IND	Indianapolis has a strong defense that will slow Eli Manning and Co.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 29.

Breaking Down Spreads to Avoid

Oakland at Seattle (-15.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are maddening for bettors.

Blow out the Green Bay Packers to start the season? Check. Upend the Denver Broncos? Check. Take care of business against the St. Louis Rams? Nope.

After recently shipping away wideout Percy Harvin, the Seahawks went out and almost laid an egg against the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 before emerging with a 13-9 victory. Quarterback Russell Wilson remains adamant that the team is as together as ever.

"It was people trying to find ways to knock us down, but we just keep swinging and keep believing in each other," Wilson said, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "There is no doubt that we are more together than ever before."

Fine. Seattle has the No. 2 rushing attack in the NFL and a top-10 defense against the pass and rush. But 15.5 points? No thanks.

The Oakland Raiders may be winless, but they are certainly due. After a Week 5 bye and some shuffling at the top, the team is downright better. The team almost knocked off San Diego and then proceeded to give Arizona and Cleveland a run for their money in the weeks after.

Part of this has to do with the continued development of rookie quarterback Derek Carr:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
vs. SD	18	34	282	52.9	4	1
vs. ARI	16	28	173	57.1	0	0
at CLE	34	54	328	63.0	1	0

Oakland is certainly not going to win this game. But Carr is an exciting young player, and there is a new commitment to the run. The team also very quietly ranks in the top half of the league against the pass.

Meanwhile, Seattle has beat just one opponent by more than 10 points, and that was to start the season against Green Bay. Then again, perhaps a matchup with the Raiders is exactly what the doctor ordered. Either way, bettors should ignore this one.

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Raiders 17

St. Louis at San Francisco (-10)

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Talk about the definition of a spread to avoid.

Feel free to point out that the San Francisco 49ers easily passed this mark in Week 6 on Monday Night Football against the St. Louis Rams in an eventual 31-17 win. But to play that game, understand that the Rams then went out on a short week and beat Seattle.

Led by Austin Davis, who has 1,680 yards and 10 touchdowns to five interceptions on a 65.2 completion percentage, the Rams offense seems to be finding itself in spurts.

The real concern for San Francisco, though, comes on the offensive side of the ball. Colin Kaepernick and the offense rank No. 20 in terms of passing yards per game and now must overcome a borderline top-10 pass defense and rookie nose tackle Aaron Donald.

Do not scoff at the rookie, either. A quote captured by BJ Kissel of KCChiefs.com says it all:

It is in no way incorrect, either—according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Donald ranks as the No. 2 overall tackle in the NFL so far this season. Keep in mind that the 49ers just lost starting center Daniel Kilgore for the season.

The flip side, of course, is that San Francisco and the league's No. 10 rushing attack absolutely run roughshod on the league's No. 31 rush defense. Be wary, though, as the 49ers actually managed just 89 yards on the ground with a 3.0 per-carry average in the team's first encounter with the Rams.

See why this one is a no-fly zone for bettors? Logic seems to go out the window when these two rivals meet. San Francisco is likely to pull away eventually as the team is simply more talented top to bottom and healthier, but the betting environment is in no way safe. Better options certainly exist on the Week 9 slate.

Prediction: 49ers 24, Rams 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay and Tennessee on bye.