Ohio State Football: Buckeyes' Road to Making the College Football Playoff

COLUMBUS, Ohio — If Ohio State learned anything from the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings, it's that except for two nights in the remainder of the season, the Buckeyes should be rooting for Michigan State and Nebraska.

That's because if the playoff committee made one sentiment clear on Tuesday, it's that it will be taking signature wins into account perhaps more than any other factor. As a result, Ohio State finds itself placed 16th after the first rankings reveal, a seemingly long way to go from a coveted top-four spot that will allow a team to play for a national title.

Couple that with the scarlet letter that seems to be the Buckeyes' Sept. 6 loss to Virginia Tech, and it's beginning to look like winning out may simply not be enough for Ohio State to make the inaugural playoff. Rather, the Buckeyes will likely need help from their future foes in order to add some much-needed quality wins to their resume.

Record	Playoff Committee Poll	AP Poll	Coaches Poll	Strength of Schedule
6-1	16	13	13	72

Biggest Obstacles to Playoff Berth 

The good news for Ohio State is that it's still only October, and plenty of time remains for the Buckeyes to improve that resume. Its first—and most challenging—chance to do so will come next week in East Lansing, when Ohio State will square off with eighth-ranked Michigan State.

Long thought to be a de facto Big Ten Championship and potential playoff play-in game, the battle between the Buckeyes and Spartans will still garner plenty of attention, but obviously it's the latter who finds themselves in the more favorable position right now. That's something that stood out to ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit, who stated that winning the Big Ten may not be enough for the Buckeyes to make the playoff.

"There are a lot of people who believe that if Ohio State were to beat Michigan State and win out, that they would have a decent argument because they're a conference champion," Herbstreit said on the rankings reveal telecast. "Where Ohio State is now, they have a long way to go to even be in the discussion, whereas Michigan State on November 8th, if they were to continue to win, I think they obviously, because they're much higher, have a better chance of being able to be able to get in the discussion and get up into that top-four.

"But I think Ohio State, boy, that is a long way to go sitting at No. 16."

Beating the Spartans is obviously easier said than done, as Michigan State possesses the nation's seventh-ranked defense and will use a well-placed bye as an extra week of preparation for the Buckeyes. After that, Ohio State should seemingly cruise until a potential conference championship game, although a Nov. 15 date at 6-2 Minnesota could make for an interesting road test for Urban Meyer's squad.

Date	Opponent	Location
Nov. 1	Illinois	Columbus, Ohio
Nov. 8	Michigan State	East Lansing, Michigan
Nov. 15	Minnesota	Minneapolis, Minnesota
Nov. 22	Indiana	Columbus, Ohio
Nov. 29	Michigan	Columbus, Ohio
Dec. 6	Big Ten West Champion*	Indianapolis, Indiana

Help Needed

The Buckeyes may not only need to beat the Spartans next Saturday, but for that potential win to also look as impressive as possible based on Michigan State's record at season's end. The same goes for 15th-ranked Nebraska, who Ohio State would face in the Big Ten Championship Game should both teams win the remainder of their regular-season games.

Al Goldis/Associated Press

And while the Buckeyes would certainly benefit from becoming the second—and only additional losses—for both the Spartans and Cornhuskers, they could also use help from the Hokies, who have dropped four of their past six games since beating Ohio State in the second week of the season. Playoff committee chair Jeff Long admitted that the Buckeyes' lone loss on the season played a key role in their No. 16 ranking, which is the third lowest of the ranked one-loss teams from power-five conferences.

"I wouldn't call it an albatross, but it was not a good loss for them," Long said on the telecast of OSU's defeat to Virginia Tech. "We're still early in this process and while I wouldn't get that excited about Ohio State's placement, we do think that based on the other teams that they've played to this point in the schedule, this is where they deserve to be ranked."

Assuming conference championships play a factor in the committee's decision, it would be interesting to see how a hypothetical one-loss Ohio State Big Ten champion would be viewed by the committee at season's end. But nevertheless, the Buckeyes could still stand to benefit from losses by any of the 13 teams ranked ahead of them that they aren't already scheduled to play, including five from the SEC, three from the Pac-12, three from the Big 12, No. 2 Florida State and No. 10 Notre Dame.

Altogether, that may seem like a daunting task for Ohio State. But given the slate ahead of them, Long didn't rule out the Buckeyes making a run.

"Ohio State has opportunities on their schedule to play up, as many of these teams do," Long said.

Prediction

As Herbstreit alluded to, I too took notice of the lower-than-expected slotting of the Buckeyes, who were perhaps talked about more than any other team during Tuesday's 30-minute playoff committee show.

Heading into Tuesday night, I was of the belief that Ohio State fell into the "win and you're in" faction, given the showdown with the Spartans ahead and the emphasis that will allegedly be placed on conference championships. I'm doing my best not to overreact to where the Buckeyes stand at the end of October, but at this point, it's hard for me to believe that winning out will simply be enough for OSU.

Rather, I think the Buckeyes will need their two remaining opportunities for big wins to look as impressive as possible, with Michigan State and Nebraska holding up their ends of the bargain as the only other ranked Big Ten teams. But ultimately, it is my belief that all of this conversation will be for naught, as I don't see Ohio State walking away from Spartan Stadium with a win next Saturday.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Between J.T. Barrett's sprained MCL, Michigan State coming off a bye week and the Buckeyes' close call in Happy Valley last weekend, there just appears to be too much momentum in the Spartans' favor that would allow me to justify picking Ohio State. Maybe something in the next week will change my mind, but right now, I don't see it.

I have the Buckeyes losing to the Spartans, winning their three following games, but sitting out the conference title game as Michigan State plays for a second consecutive league crown and potential playoff spot. That would leave Ohio State with a 10-2 record, and in my estimation, a final ranking of No. 21, which is probably about right for a talented, but largely inexperienced team like the Buckeyes.

As it stands at the end of October, I project Ohio State to play in the Citrus Bowl against a big name SEC opponent. But there's a lot of football left between now and then.

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Ohio State Lead Writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.