Chris Ivory Is Huge Fantasy Risk in Week 8 vs. Bills

New York Jets running back Chris Ivory is coming off a huge Week 7 performance after carrying 21 times for 107 yards and a touchdown against the New England Patriots. However, before Ivory's fantasy owners secure him in their staring lineups for Week 8, the severe risk involved must first be assessed.

While there's plenty to like about Ivory's ability as a ball-carrier, he's still a matchup-based play for fantasy purposes. There's plenty of evidence to support that notion.

The running back was highly successful against the Patriots; although, New England owns the NFL's 24th-ranked run defense. Ivory hasn't been able to generate that same kind of productivity against better defensive fronts. In Week 6 against the Denver Broncos' top-ranked run defense, he carried eight times for seven yards.

In the waning minutes of the Jets' Week 7 contest, NFL on ESPN tweeted the inconsistent numbers Ivory posted over his last three games:

Things aren't going to get much easier on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills' fourth-ranked run defense that is allowing just 80.4 yards per game on the ground. That doesn't bode well for Ivory, who is tasked with running behind a Jets offensive line that ranks 29th in the league blocking for the run with a minus-25.2 rating, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Oh, it gets worse.

Buffalo is also giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, allowing just 9.6 per game, via ESPN.com. The Bills have given up single-digit fantasy points to ball-carriers in five of the team's seven games this season.

Why are those numbers so low? Mike Braude of ApexFantasyLeagues.com tweeted one good reason:

Adding to Ivory's decreased chances of having a productive outing is the ongoing presence of Chris Johnson. While he only holds a complementary role at this point, Johnson still significantly cuts into Ivory's touches—he accumulated 13 to Ivory's 21 in Week 7.

Sure, that timeshare may not matter every week. It certainly didn't against the Patriots. But against a stout defense like Buffalo's, an abundance of carries may be the only way to accumulate any sort of significant yardage.

The addition of wide receiver Percy Harvin doesn't help matters, either. Harvin's speed and elusiveness in the open field could prompt New York to utilize him both out of the backfield and on jet sweeps in an effort to get around the Bills defense.

Simply put, there are too many factors that go against the chances of Ivory having a banner day for his fantasy owners this week. Unless there is no other option available, he should be relegated to the bench until a better matchup comes along.