Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Mississippi State Bulldogs return from their bye week and will put their unbeaten record on the line when they visit the Kentucky Wildcats in an SEC matchup on Saturday.

The Bulldogs will try to win their 10th straight game dating back to last season and beat the Wildcats for the sixth time in a row, while Kentucky looks to bounce back from a 41-3 road loss at LSU as a double-digit home underdog.

Point Spread: Bulldogs opened as 13-point favorites at Commonwealth Stadium.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Bulldogs 46.2, Wildcats 26.5

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs Can Cover the Spread

Mississippi State has too much to lose right now as the No. 1 team in the country, especially with a tough road ahead the rest of the way.

The Bulldogs simply can’t afford a loss here and have covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings with the Wildcats.

Top Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott saw two of his competitors for the award (Notre Dame's Everett Golson and Baylor's Bryce Petty) lose last week, giving him the perfect opportunity to shine in his first game back from the bye.

Prescott completed 23 of 34 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for 33 yards on 16 carries in last year’s 28-22 home win over Kentucky. That was the only meeting over the past seven where Mississippi State did not cover as a 12.5-point favorite.

Why the Kentucky Wildcats Can Cover the Spread

The Wildcats have not fared well on the road this season, but they are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home. They had turned in impressive back-to-back performances at Commonwealth Stadium before being routed by the Tigers last week.

Kentucky quarterback Patrick Towles never got on track at LSU with just 146 yards, but he threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns in his previous two games combined.

Towles did not play in last year’s meeting, so the Bulldogs will not be familiar with him. However, the Wildcats did play against Prescott last season and were able to cover the spread against him. This familiarity plus the home field could lead to another ATS win.

Smart Pick

Kentucky may be 4-1 ATS at home this season, but only one of those covers was against an SEC team. That came in a 45-38 upset of South Carolina as a 4.5-point underdog on October 4.

The Wildcats are only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games as double-digit dogs and will be facing a highly motivated Mississippi State team that has enjoyed a lot of past success against them.

The Bulldogs are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites and 3-0 vs. the line in their past three games away from home against SEC opponents. On the other hand, Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 home games vs. conference foes.

This all adds up to another big win for Mississippi State.

Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road.
• Kentucky is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.