2015 Atlanta Falcons Mock Draft: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Each Player
Atlanta is currently sitting at 2-6 during its bye week. If the season were to end today, the Falcons would be picking in the top 10 again. Keeping that in mind, the Falcons have a couple of needs that they absolutely need to address with draft picks.
They have to get some offensive line depth. They need a feature running back who can carry the load and be a positive fixture in the running game. They also need a premier pass-rusher to pair with Jonathan Massaquoi off the edge. Follow along for a way for the Falcons to address their biggest needs as well as adding some depth throughout the roster.
Round 1: DE/OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska, 6'6", 240 Pounds
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Atlanta's biggest issue on its defense is that it's missing a great pass-rusher. Massaquoi is a solid player and should continue to develop into a good one, but there's no one else on the roster that looks like anything more than a rotational player. Enter Randy Gregory into the mix and things completely change.
Gregory has one of the best first steps in the college ranks. He's able to blow past offensive linemen very easily using a mix of speed and power moves. He's able to convert speed to power and uses his hands well on both inside and outside moves.
Gregory does need to work on his functional strength, but that's something that comes with time and experience. He's solid against the run and can set the edge effectively as either a 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 defensive end. He's not someone you'd want in anything but a short zone coverage, though.
Best-Case Scenario: John Abraham or Simeon Rice
Both John Abraham and Simeon Rice had extremely similar careers. They both eclipsed 120 sacks on their careers and played over a dozen years in the league. Both were also extremely adept at the strip-sack collecting a combined 75 forced fumbles through their careers.
Worst-Case Scenario: Kamerion Wimbley
If Gregory just totally busts, he should still be able to stay in the league for a while as a mid-tier edge player like Wimbley. Despite playing a nine-year career and collecting 53.5 sacks, Wimbley was expected to do way more as the No. 13 overall pick in the 2006 draft for the Cleveland Browns.
Round 2: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin, 6'1", 213 Pounds
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Atlanta hasn't had a great featured running back since Michael Turner fell off the wagon in 2012. Steven Jackson has been nothing but a disappointment, and no one else is stepping up to take the job from him. Devonta Freeman is a great rotational back and so is Antone Smith, but Atlanta needs a bell-cow back.
That's where Melvin Gordon would come in. Atlanta could get their featured back and get a great one without having to spend a huge sum on a free agent like DeMarco Murray or a higher pick on a guy like Todd Gurley. Gordon should slip due to the nature of running backs getting devalued through the process.
By getting Gordon here at the top of the second round, the Falcons should be able to address their biggest offensive need in that they don't have a competent running game. The only thing that would stop them from having one in 2015 with a guy like Gordon at running back is if Joe Hawley gets hurt yet again.
Best-Case Scenario: Terrell Davis when Davis was healthy
Early in Davis' career, he learned how to catch the swing passes and make something out of nothing with them. With Gordon's elite vision and acceleration through holes, there's few whom he can compare to. Davis was tracking improvement every single season until the pair of knee injuries ended his exceptional career.
Worst-Case Scenario: Rudi Johnson
Even though Johnson had just a couple of good seasons, he was a similar back to Gordon in that he relied on his vision to gain yardage over otherworldly athleticism. Johnson also was unable to learn how to catch the ball out of the backfield, and that's what ultimately was his biggest negative in Cincinnati.
Round 3: OL Josue Matias, Florida State, 6'6", 325 Pounds
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Depth, depth, depth. That's the name of the game in the NFL. Josue Matias is a monster, but he's very raw with his technique. That's OK, though, as the Falcons have Justin Blalock and Jon Asamoah under contract as the starting guards through 2016.
Matias would be a great insurance policy just in case Blalock suffers another injury in 2015 like he did against the Minnesota Vikings. If Blalock and Asamoah are both healthy, Matias at least gives Atlanta someone who can slot in as a sixth offensive lineman in power-rushing situations and depth at guard and right tackle on game day.
Florida State has benefited greatly from running behind him, and Atlanta could enjoy the same kind of production from a line that had Matias combined with 2014 first-round pick Jake Matthews starting on the left side of the line long term.
Best-Case Scenario: Kelechi Osemele
Osemele has proven to be one of the top guards in the NFL with his excellent pass blocking that sets the depth of the pocket for Joe Flacco, while his run blocking is like having a bulldozer plow through the middle of the field. Atlanta would love to have someone like him on their line right now.
Worst-Case Scenario: Mike Johnson
Johnson has been nothing but a disappointment since getting drafted by the Falcons in the third round of the 2010 draft. He's been getting injured way too often for the Falcons to feel comfortable with him as a starter and shouldn't see another contract in Atlanta next season.
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Round 4: TE Nick O'Leary, Florida State, 6'3", 247 Pounds
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Atlanta is definitely missing Tony Gonzalez this season. Through eight games, Levine Toilolo and Bear Pascoe have combined for 16 catches on 30 targets for 150 yards and two touchdowns. That's a far cry from the 83 catches for 859 yards and eight touchdowns that Gonzalez gave Atlanta last season.
The Falcons need someone to combine with Toilolo to get them at least half of the production Gonzalez got the team. Toilolo hasn't been able to show constant ability to get open and has been a mediocre blocker at best. So Nick O'Leary from Florida State makes the most sense.
O'Leary is a guy who can play that H-back-style role where he's basically moving all over the field trying to find spots to get open. Toilolo and O'Leary could combine well as an H-back and in-line pairing that would be able to attack defenses in two-tight end sets.
Best-Case Scenario: Owen Daniels
Much like Daniels, O'Leary is that intermediate threat who can play in-line or as a move-style tight end. He attacks the intermediate routes on the field extremely effectively and understands how to create separation, despite not being much faster than 4.6 in the 40.
Worst-Case Scenario: James Casey
Casey is an extremely good "move" tight end, but he doesn't get the shot he deserves. O'Leary could be in a similar situation to Casey if he can't establish himself within an offense. It's all going to come down to the role and fit for O'Leary.
Round 5: CB Cody Riggs, Notre Dame, 5'9", 185 Pounds
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Ricardo Allen was drafted in the fifth round in 2014 to be a nickel corner of the future. However, he's been unable to make the roster through this season. With Josh Wilson, Robert McClain and Javier Arenas all in the final year of their contracts, Atlanta needs some competition behind Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford.
Allen is a good fit for that role, but giving him competition in the form of Notre Dame's Cody Riggs isn't a bad idea. The former Florida Gator cornerback transferred to Notre Dame after he earned his bachelor's degree down in the swamp.
Atlanta loves players like Riggs because they aren't afraid to compete for a role that's primarily as a special teams player should a starting gig not work out. Riggs can play well as a gunner, but he's also a solid cornerback who will be a good fit as a long-term answer at nickel or dime cornerback.
Best-Case Scenario: Kyle Arrington
Arrington has been everything from a No. 1 corner to a nickel corner for the New England Patriots. His best role has been as a nickel, though. Riggs has the long-term potential to be a great nickel for the Falcons and should compete well with Ricardo Allen for the role.
Worst-Case Scenario: Robert McClain
Riggs and McClain are similar because it's all about getting the right opportunity to showcase their talent. McClain has been a solid nickel and dime corner for the Falcons. He also excels on special teams. At his absolute worst, Riggs is someone who can contribute in some way to a team.
Round 6: LB Stephone Anthony, Clemson, 6'3", 245 Pounds
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Atlanta's linebacker play has left much to be desired. Joplo Bartu is best suited to play outside linebacker, and Prince Shembo hasn't been able to regain the starting job since losing it to injury earlier in the season. Paul Worrilow has also regressed a bit on field with added responsibilities this year.
Atlanta needs to add some competition at linebacker to push Worrilow, Bartu and Shembo for playing time. Stephone Anthony is a great football player who would be able to add to the leadership and talent within the Falcons corps. He needs a solid group of linemen in front of him to succeed, though.
Atlanta should have that. Anthony can compete head-to-head with any of the three Falcons linebackers as well as a coming-off-the-injured-reserve Marquis Spruill. Anthony's biggest drawbacks might be related to athleticism, but with his size, he has the ability to be a solid thumping inside linebacker in the 3-4 at worst.
Best-Case Scenario: Karlos Dansby
Anthony has great instincts in both coverage and against the run. He's got the disruption that Karlos Dansby had early in his career. If the Falcons can get the most out of Anthony, he'd be a Dansby clone for the Falcons in the middle of their defense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Yawin Smallwood
As good of a linebacker as Anthony is, he still has some drawbacks physically that could force him to slip deep into the draft. Slipping this deep wouldn't be that bad, but Anthony has more potential than just a pure practice-squad player like what Smallwood has become.
Round 7: S Brison Williams, South Carolina, 5'11", 208 Pounds
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The Falcons will have Dezmen Southward, Kemal Ishmael and William Moore as the main three safeties competing for playing time with the starting defense and will need some special teams and safety depth out of their late-round picks.
Brison Williams is a hard-hitting safety for the South Carolina Gamecocks defense. He's played special teams and at free safety and strong safety in Lorenzo Ward's defense. He's shown versatility to flip between positions and has solid coverage abilities to play underneath coverages.
He's a good fit for Atlanta's defense as a developmental prospect, and his athleticism is toward the middle of current NFL safeties. He's also got a bigger frame than most safeties out there. Williams will be an asset for a team, but whether it's as a safety or as a gunner is the question.
Best-Case Scenario: Dwight Lowery
Lowery has been nothing but solid since the day he stepped foot on an NFL field. Williams may never be a world beater, but his best case is definitely that of a solid mid-level starter like Lowery is. Getting a Dwight Lowery for a seventh-round pick is a steal.
Worst-Case Scenario: Kemal Ishmael
Williams is a solid player who at the worst will contribute to an NFL team as a special teams ace and depth behind the starters. If he's relied on to be a starter, he's got solid potential, but he's got some questions when it comes to his coverage instincts deep.
Round 7 (from STL): K Sam Ficken, Penn State, 6'2", 186 Pounds
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Matt Bryant is a great kicker. Yet, at 40 years old, he's going to be looking at retirement soon. Atlanta should be pro-active in selecting his replacement. Should the talented Bryant retire, Atlanta will be in dire need of a kicker and drafting one makes a ton of sense.
Kickers are one of the toughest positions to evaluate because there aren't enough snaps that they play. However, Sam Ficken has shown that he has a great leg, and inside a dome or in warm weather, he would be a better fit as a place-kicker than outside of one.
He's always had better stats before the snow comes up to Happy Valley. Atlanta would love to have someone who can make the same kinds of kicks that Bryant can make. Most of Ficken's misses come from non-pressure situations, and Atlanta will put him in plenty of pressure situations.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats.com or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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