Week 7 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

The Week 7 NFL slate brings a host of matchups that will likely be closely contested, as no team is a double-digit favorite this week.  Thus, even though we've built up enough of a sample size to make more definitive judgments about teams, the schedule does bettors no favors in terms of distinguishing the best bets for this week's action.

However, the last few days have seen lines move meaningfully, potentially providing an edge on a few matchups.  Predicting the entire slate of games based on odds from Odds Shark, let's predict the entire Week 7 schedule against the spread, highlighting some of the juiciest propositions in particular.

Matchup (Spread)	Time (ET)	Pick ATS
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)	1 p.m.	Ravens
Tennessee Titans at Washington (-5.5)	1 p.m.	Titans
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at St. Louis Rams	1 p.m.	Seahawks
Cleveland Browns (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	1 p.m.	Browns
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	1 p.m.	Bengals
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5)	1 p.m.	Bills
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3.5)	1 p.m.	Dolphins
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-1)	1 p.m.	Lions
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)	1 p.m.	Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4)	4:05 p.m.	Chargers
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Oakland Raiders	4:25 p.m.	Cardinals
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	4:25 p.m.	Giants
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7)	8:30 p.m.	Broncos

Dolphins (+3.5) over Bears

With the game at Soldier Field, many might see the minus-3.5 spread as favorable to the Bears.  However, Chicago has lost both its home games this season and stands as one of the most fickle teams in the league.  Thus, probability models like that of Advanced Football Analytics' Brian Burke see this contest as much closer to a 50-50 proposition.

The Bears offense is explosive, and mismatches Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery could present issues for Miami's diminutive secondary.  However, the Dolphins defense ranks fourth overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and in Cameron Wake it possesses a weapon that could change the game's complexion:

Wake is not the only Dolphins pass-rusher who can present problems for Chicago's shifting offensive line personnel, as Olivier Vernon and Jared Odrick also provide length and quick-twitch athleticism to penetrate into the backfield.  So long as Lamar Miller can exploit the Bears' improved yet still average run defense, the Dolphins can control the ball long enough to at least cover this spread, if not upset Chicago entirely.

Bills (-5) over Vikings

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

This line has moved up a few points, but playing at Orchard Park, the Bills figure to rebound from their Week 6 loss to the New England Patriots.  While Buffalo has its issues on offense, the Bills defense possesses a massive advantage in the trenches, one that could totally stifle the stagnant Teddy Bridgewater-led Vikings offense.

According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings offensive line ranks last in adjusted sack rate, while Buffalo's defensive line ranks 10th in that same category.  With Kyle Williams healthy, it is clear that the Bills should be able to place consistent pressure on Bridgewater by rushing four, as by any metric, Minnesota's offensive line has been one of the worst in the league:

Buffalo seems unlikely to score many points, as the Vikings do have a versatile front seven that can stymie the Bills' rushing attack while also containing Scott Chandler down the seams.  Nevertheless, it is a very real possibility that the Vikings fail to break double-digits for a second consecutive week, therefore tilting this line towards Buffalo.

Chargers (-4) over Chiefs

This matchup mostly pits a bunch of middling units against each other, with one incandescent passing attack delineating between the Chargers and Chiefs.  Philip Rivers and the San Diego passing game have been the league's best by multiple measures, and against a Chiefs defense that will once again be missing Eric Berry, it is not difficult to envision the Chargers posting a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Kansas City's biggest defensive issue will be defending Antonio Gates, particularly in the red zone.  Football Outsiders shows that the Chiefs' pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends ranks 26th; indeed, five of eight red-zone touchdown receptions the Chiefs have conceded have been to tight ends, per Pro-Football-Reference.  Against the Rivers-to-Gates combination, that deficiency is deadly:

San Diego's secondary has been excellent this season, as the additions of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett have significantly boosted the secondary's playmaking and man-to-man ability.  Unless Jamaal Charles can play his best all-around game of the season, the Chargers offense seems likely to cover this spread.