NFL Predictions Week 7: Making the Call on Weekend's Toughest Matchups

Those who proclaim it gets easier to make NFL picks as the season wears on are liars.

There is more data and resources to use than ever as things progress, but that is just it—there is more to break down than ever in order to make an accurate prediction.

And do not forget that some of the lines Las Vegas has posted this year have been absolutely slaughtered. Dallas upending Seattle at home last week is perhaps the crowning achievement of how misguided setting these odds can sometimes be. Because of that, making picks has been in a treacherous endeavor all season long.

Below, let's take a look at each matchup the weekend has to offer.

NFL Week 7 Picks against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cincinnati at Indianapolis	IND (-3)	CIN	Cincinnati seems poised for a rebound, as the offense continues to roll without key contributors.
Carolina at Green Bay	GB (-7)	CAR	Carolina will keep this one close, but bank on another miracle from Aaron Rodgers when it matters.
New Orleans at Detroit	DET (-2)	DET	Detroit has an elite defense and an offense, even without Calvin Johnson, that can exploit New Orleans.
Miami at Chicago	CHI (-3.5)	CHI	Chicago's offense is going to give Miami more than it can handle.
Seattle at St. Louis	SEA (-7)	SEA	St. Louis continues to fight, but an angry Seattle team is not going to lose again at home.
Tennessee at Washington	WAS (-4)	WAS	Tennessee will have no issues moving the ball regardless of who lines up under center.
Minnesota at Buffalo	BUF (-6)	BUF	The Buffalo defense should have few issues taking advantage of a rookie quarterback.
Cleveland at Jacksonville	CLE (-6)	CLE	See analysis below.
Atlanta at Baltimore	BAL (-7)	ATL	In what may turn into a shootout, Matt Ryan can keep his team in it. An outright win is another conversation entirely.
Kansas City at San Diego	SD (-4)	SD	San Diego might just be the best team in the league, and expect Charger QB Philip Rivers to shine at home.
NY Giants at Dallas	DAL (-7)	DAL	Then again, Dallas might be the best team in the league. DeMarco Murray is in for a huge day.
Arizona at Oakland	AZ (-4)	AZ	See analysis below.
San Francisco at Denver	DEN (-7)	DEN	Peyton Manning against a top-flight defense is still Peyton Manning. Denver's own defense is starting to look elite, too.
Houston at Pittsburgh (Mon., Oct. 20)	PIT (-3.5)	HOU	Pittsburgh is reeling and will not be able to counteract a defense led by J.J. Watt.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 17. 

Arizona (-4) at Oakland

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Quietly one of the best teams in the league, the Arizona Cardinals got a major boost last week anyway thanks to the return of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer. 

Gone was Drew Stanton, who in three games as the starter had completed 46.4 percent of his passes. Palmer appeared to have no problem with the nerve issue that cost him time, throwing for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Washington.

The thing is, the Oakland Raiders are in no way that big of an underdog. Cardinals coach Bruce Arians seems to appreciate what a young Raiders roster has been able to do this season, as captured by Eddie Borsilli of SiriusXM NFL Radio:

Last week was a bit of a coming-out party for rookie quarterback Derek Carr. The Fresno State product unexpectedly exploded against the San Diego Chargers and threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns in an eventual 31-28 loss.

Therein lies the problem for the Cardinals. Arians' defense ranks dead last in the league with an average of 309.0 passing yards allowed per game. Some of this has to do with encounters against the high-powered passing attacks of San Diego and Denver; most of it has to do with simply woeful performances.

Oakland is also scary in that the team so recently made the coaching change from Dennis Allen to Tony Sparano. A renewed emphasis has been placed on offensive balance, hence Darren McFadden's best game of the season in which he found 80 yards on just 14 totes last week.

This one will not come easy for the Cardinals. The team is certainly better than the Raiders, and it helps that Oakland ranks second-to-last against the rush, so if the team is truly concerned about the ability of Carr having a big game through the air, Palmer and Co. can grind things out on the ground.

Just do not expect it to be a lopsided affair. Or pretty.

Prediction: Cardinals 28, Raiders 23

Cleveland (-6) at Jacksonville

David Richard/Associated Press

Look at that, the Cleveland Browns are out of the abyss.

The Browns have now won two games in a row and sit at 3-2 after a jarring 31-10 win over Pittsburgh last week. Nice, but coach Mike Pettine is not ready to take the foot off the gas, especially not with a game against Jacksonville in Week 7, per Nate Ulright of Ohio.com:

"

There are reasons why there are people out there saying that this is probably the week for Jacksonville. All the circumstances where you would say this is a trap game and I think as a staff we’re just as curious to see. We’ll talk about it all week, but we’re curious to see how we will come out of the gate, as well. We’re confident. We’re hopeful and confident that we’ll handle it the right way, but this is a big test for us.

"

It makes sense, as a young team riding high is certainly prone to a letdown. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is hungry for its first win of the season after hanging tough with those same Steelers two weeks ago and losing by just two points to Tennessee last week.

Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles continues to have his ups and downs. He's completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 1,004 yards and four touchdowns, though he's thrown seven interceptions. While the lack of a running game around him is a serious issue, his ability to move the team through the air should improve with Cecil Shorts coming back into the fold.

A certain one-two punch continues to get it done for Cleveland, though.

Veteran signal-caller Brian Hoyer has fended off the Johnny Manziel whispers in emphatic fashion by completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards and seven touchdowns to a single interception. Lead back Ben Tate returned to action a few weeks ago and in his last two games has 202 rushing yards and a pair of scores.

For two teams climbing the proverbial ladder, it is hard to argue against the Browns in this particular matchup. The offense has a stunning semblance of balance, which will keep Bortles and a one-dimensional attack off the field.

Prediction: Browns 24, Jaguars 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).