NFL Week 7 Picks: Breaking Down Best Bets Against the Spread

Coming off the madness of Week 6, trying to put logic and reason to anything happening in the NFL right now is a fool's errand. The good news is we are not afraid to shame ourselves in the name offering insight and analysis into Week 7. 

The biggest problem that we are seeing with NFL teams is the ability to sustain success from week to week. There are a small handful of teams that have done it, but even some of the winners tend to look sloppy and are fortunate to steal a victory. 

It proves how small the gap between all 32 teams really is. With six weeks of evidence to go on, as well as plenty of pregame analysis, these are our best predictions for what to expect when the games kick off on Sunday. 

Matchup, Spread	Pick
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-6)	Ravens, 27-24
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5)	Bills, 23-14
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3.5)	Bears, 26-21
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-1)	Saints, 34-28
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7)	Panthers, 27-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)	Bengals, 28-24
Cleveland Browns (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Browns, 23-13
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at St. Louis Rams	Seahawks, 30-20
Tennessee Titans at Washington (-5.5)	Washington, 23-17
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4)	Chargers, 27-20
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	Giants, 27-24
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders	Raiders, 24-20
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7)	Broncos, 28-24
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)	Steelers, 20-16

Carolina Panthers (+7) at Green Bay Packers

The oddsmakers love the Packers at home against the Panthers, though neither one of these teams has been consistent in 2014. Green Bay is riding a three-game winning streak, yet there's an argument to be made it should have lost to Miami if Cortland Finnegan tackled Davante Adams in bounds on Aaron Rodgers' fake spike. 

Carolina is coming off a hard-fought tie on the road in Cincinnati, scoring 37 points against a Bengals defense that we assumed was one of the best in football. 

Neither team has fared well on the defensive side. Green Bay is 11th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed per game; Carolina is 24th in points allowed and 26th in total defense. This means we should expect huge games from Rodgers and Cam Newton.

While we know what to expect from Rodgers, Newton is starting to hit another level. He started the year slow after missing Week 1 with an injury but was up to all his old tricks against the Bengals with 284 passing yards and 107 rushing yards.

Ron Rivera even commented on how well Newton is playing right now, via Max Henson of Panthers.com:

More importantly, Gil Brandt of NFL.com wrote that Newton was one of the few quarterbacks whose season numbers don't tell the story of how well they are playing:

"

During last week's tie with the Cincinnati Bengals, Newton looked to be at about 75 percent capacity, completing 63 percent of his passes for 284 yards and two touchdowns against one pick -- and, perhaps more importantly, rushing 17 times for 107 yards and a score while taking zero sacks. He's just so much more mobile than he was early on this year, able to move around so much better.

"

If Newton at 75 percent health is putting up 391 yards of total offense against Cincinnati, what will he do against a Green Bay defense that has injury woes in the secondary? Per ESPN's Adam Schefter:

Kelvin Benjamin's injury doesn't provide as much of a concern because of how inconsistent he is as a pass-catcher, and Newton still has his favorite red-zone weapon, Greg Olsen, to use. 

Both teams are so reliant on the quarterback, but Newton's ability to add something in the running game is crucial. The Packers have been searching for anything from Eddie Lacy this season, so everything falls on Rodgers' arm once again. 

It will be a close game, but this one has all the makings of an upset. 

Panthers 27, Packers 23

New Orleans Saints (+1) at Detroit Lions

Bill Haber/Associated Press

It may not seem like it based on recent history, but at some point the New Orleans Saints are going to win a game on the road this season. What better opportunity to do it than against a Detroit offense that's put up 31 total points in the last two games?

A big reason for the Lions' offensive struggles is tied to the ankle of Calvin Johnson, which doesn't seem likely to let him play again this week, via NFL Network's Albert Breer:

The Lions' defense has been outstanding this year, allowing the fewest yards and points per game. It does come with a caveat that their last three games have come against the New York Jets (Geno Smith), Buffalo (Kyle Orton) and Minnesota (Teddy Bridgewater). 

Going up against Drew Brees will provide more of a challenge. His six interceptions this season, including three against Tampa Bay, are concerning. It would help if the Saints had Jimmy Graham, who is officially listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. 

Mike Triplett of ESPN speculates that if Graham does play, he could be used mostly in the red zone to protect his shoulder from more punishment. 

Matthew Stafford is as erratic as any quarterback in the NFL, so even against a soft Saints secondary, it's hard to put faith in him with Johnson likely on the shelf.

It's going to be a fun shootout, but expect New Orleans' six-game road losing streak to end. 

Saints 34, Lions 28

San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Denver Broncos

The biggest game of the week is starting to lose some of its luster. San Francisco is coming into the game beat up on defense. Patrick Willis has already been ruled out with a toe injury suffered on Monday in St. Louis.

Also listed as questionable on the injury report are three of Jim Harbaugh's top four defensive backs—Chris Culliver, Tramaine Brock and Jimmie Ward. 

It's bad enough losing Willis, but having a hobbled secondary going against Peyton Manning doesn't exactly scream good news. Another problem the 49ers' defense faces is getting pressure on Denver's quarterback. According to ESPN Stats & Info, San Francisco is ranked 23rd in generating pressure. 

Despite all those problems, the 49ers will be able to keep this game close enough to cover the spread thanks to their weapons on offense. 

The Broncos are tied for eighth in the NFL with 15 sacks, so getting pressure on Colin Kaepernick may not be a problem. However, per ESPN Stats & Info, no quarterback has thrown more touchdowns outside the pocket than the 49ers' signal-caller:

In Week 2, Denver's defense couldn't contain Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson when he got out of the pocket on the game-winning drive in overtime. Kaepernick isn't afraid to tuck the ball and run it, racking up 242 rushing yards already. 

Expect the 49ers to stay committed to the run as a way to control the clock and neutralize Manning. Last week against St. Louis, even though they averaged just three yards per carry, San Francisco ran the ball 30 times. 

If the 49ers can play a ball-control style like San Diego does against Denver, they will pull off the upset. There are just too many variables working against that on Sunday night. 

Broncos 28, 49ers 24