Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 7: Breaking Down Tough Decisions on Fringe Starters

Fantasy football echoes the real thing in many ways, with one of the most critical being that fringe players on each roster decide matchups each week.

Owners who pick the right guy among a number of available names get steady production from a spot that could have netted them the same as leaving the position open. It amounts to a game of roulette each week that leaves many kicking themselves as a bench player outscores a starter.

There is a way to swing the odds, though. An intricate breakdown of fringe players will generally provide owners with a better idea of who to start and who rides the pine.

The ultimate verdicts, of course, come down to an owner's individual discretion, but it sure does not hurt to be armed to the teeth with knowledge along the way.

Quarterback

Start 'Em: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (vs. ARI)

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Rookies give owners pause, and rightfully so, but let's not pretend like streamlining inexperienced quarterbacks has not been a wildly successful tactic this season (see: Blake Bortles, Austin Davis).

Oakland Raiders signal-caller Derek Carr is next.

As Pro Football Focus' Rick Drummond illustrates, Carr was able to do something Russell Wilson and others were unable to this season:

Carr posted 25 points in total last week, and for at least one more week it does not appear to be a flash-in-the-pan sort of shenanigan. Now he gets to return home to take on the Arizona Cardinals, a team that surrenders the 27th-most points to quarterbacks.

Carr needs to be in lineups that lack a surefire starter.

Sit 'Em: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at BAL)

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Matt Ryan may be the sixth-highest scorer this season at his position, but his week-to-week habits qualify him as a fringe starter.

Not only has his production dipped in each of the past three weeks, but he seems to post a mediocre line for every 20-or-more outburst:

WK	OPP	YDS	TD	I/F	PTS
1	NO	448	3	0 / 0	30
2	@Cin	231	1	3 / 0	9
3	TB	286	3	0 / 0	23
4	@Min	298	3	2 / 0	19
5	@NYG	316	1	1 / 0	14
6	Chi	271	1	1 / 0	12

Not only do the Ravens rank among the elite against quarterbacks this season, Ryan has been a disaster away from home this season, throwing five touchdowns to six interceptions and averaging just 14 fantasy points.

The situation could not be much worse for a recognizable name who will sink many lineups this weekend.

Running Back

Start 'Em: Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions (vs. NO)

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Look, every now and then, it is acceptable to throw a fantasy footballer into the fire on the whim that he is simply going to produce.

When Reggie Bush encounters his former team Sunday, owners better be along for the ride—even if the USC product is not making a huge deal about it, per the Lions on Twitter:

Bush has been a major disappointment this season, scoring in double digits just once and burning owners last week with a goose egg due to an unfortunate injury. 

Now healthy, the explosive Bush gets to be one of the focal points of a pass-happy attack that sounds like it will be missing top target Calvin Johnson. According to ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein, he's officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game.

Even better, the Saints are surrendering the 23rd-most points to backs this season.

Sit 'Em: Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (at WSH)

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Many clearly believe Tennessee Titans rookie back Bishop Sankey is due for a breakout performance, hence his being owned in 92.5 percent of leagues.

Sankey is talented, but owners sure would not know it based on how his staff treats him. Sankey has just one tote inside an opponent's 10-yard line and owners saw backup Jackie Battle take a touchdown from the rookie last week.

The breakout is not coming this week either, folks.

Washington seemingly has a bad defense, but the unit ranks No. 4 overall against backs this season, allowing an average of just 11.3 points per game.

Wide Receiver

Start 'Em: Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CLE)

Owners will cringe at the thought of Cecil Shorts, who has spent most of the season hurt. Some have even jumped ship outright, considering he is owned in 86.5 percent of leagues.

But the numbers tell an important story. PFF's Mike Clay has the research:

Shorts posted eight points on 10 receptions for 103 yards last week. Considering the Jaguars refuse to run the football thanks to one of the league's worst run-blocking offensive lines, those sort of opportunities for Shorts are sure to be present as long as he can stay healthy.

Cleveland ranks in the bottom half of the league against wideouts, too, having surrendered a minimum of 22 points in three out of its five games last year, including a total of 63 over the course of the past two weeks.

Sit 'Em: Rueben Randle, New York Giants (at DAL)

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Eventually, the dam will break for the 55.1 percent of owners who own Rueben Randle.

Only one wideout in the league has more red-zone targets, and he has 38 overall targets dating back to Week 3.

The sudden volume-based approach is proof enough that it is only a sure thing with running backs. Randle has yet to break into double digits this season and has just two touchdowns.

Many will point out that, not only is Randle due, he may see even more looks with Victor Cruz lost for the season. Fine, but while a matchup against Dallas seems appealing, the Cowboys actually excel against wideouts, ranking No. 4 overall at just 14.0 points allowed to the position on average.

Until Randle actually does break out, he needs to be a bench stash.

All fantasy info courtesy of ESPN.com. Philadelphia, Tampa Bay on bye. All advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).