NFL Week 7 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

Sunday, Oct. 19	Time (ET)	Predicted Winner
Monday, Oct. 20	Time (ET)	Predicted Winner
Atlanta at Baltimore	1 p.m.	Ravens
Tennessee at Washington	1 p.m.	Titans
Seattle at St. Louis	1 p.m.	Seahawks
Cleveland at Jacksonville	1 p.m.	Browns
Cincinnati at Indianapolis	1 p.m.	Bengals
Minnesota at Buffalo	1 p.m.	Bills
Miami at Chicago	1 p.m.	Bears
New Orleans at Detroit	1 p.m.	Lions
Carolina at Green Bay	1 p.m.	Packers
Kansas City at San Diego	4:05 p.m.	Chargers
Arizona at Oakland	4:25 p.m.	Cardinals
NY Giants at Dallas	4:25 p.m.	Cowboys
San Francisco at Denver	8:30 p.m.	Broncos
Houston at Pittsburgh	8:30 p.m.	Steelers

This week, the NFL presents an extremely competitive slate, as no team is rated more than a 6.5-point favorite at the time of publication. Thus, while no upset would be truly earth-shattering, certain matchups could have playoff implications as we approach the regular season's midway point.

Picking all 14 games remaining on the schedule straight up, let's highlight an underdog, favorite and lock from Week 7's most intriguing contests.

Underdog: Bengals over Colts

The Bengals have developed an unfortunate reputation for faltering in "litmus test" types of contests. While Sunday's contest at Lucas Oil Stadium is not a high-profile prime-time opportunity, Cincy does have the ingredients to earn an important victory over a fellow AFC contender.

Cincinnati trounced the Colts at Paul Brown Stadium last season, but even though both rosters are largely intact, that is hardly the only reason why the Bengals are being underrated this week. For one, Cincinnati's greatest weakness this season has been their run defense, which ranks last in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.

However, Indianapolis' Trent Richardson-led ground game ranks just 27th in DVOA, as the Colts infuriatingly continue to try and justify their failed first-round investment in the ex-Cleveland Brown. Despite Ahmad Bradshaw's per-play excellence, the Colts continue to feed Richardson and his 3.2 yards per carry the majority of the early-down snaps. Much like last season, Richardson's inability to move the chains and create short down-and-distance situations has hampered the offense:

Offensively, Indianapolis' issues in creating pressure should allow Andy Dalton to roll with his usual assortment of screens, shallow crosses and occasional tight end seams. Look for Giovani Bernard to continue his ascension as one of the game's best all-purpose backs, as the Colts rank 31st in passing DVOA against opposing running backs.

Favorite: Lions over Saints

The Saints' road woes are well-documented, but some might believe that Ford Field's dome setting might help preserve some of New Orleans' offensive firepower. However, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Saints are just 1-3 in road dome games over the past three seasons, so assuming a they will receive a boost from the indoor setting seems fallacious.

When we actually evaluate the personnel, Detroit's advantage becomes even clearer. The Lions have been the best defense in the league this season by virtually every measure, and it is difficult to imagine any offense generating headway against Detroit:

If there's hope for the Saints, it's that they could be getting healthy after their bye week. New Orleans is still holding out hope that All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham could return to the lineup, while Mark Ingram is expected to return to the backfield for the first time since Week 2.

Nonetheless, the Lions' front seven is uniquely equipped to stifle the plethora of mismatches the Saints' amorphous offense can create. DeAndre Levy has arguably emerged as one of the game's best all-round linebackers alongside Lavonte David, Luke Kuechly and (when healthy) NaVorro Bowman.  Ndamukong Suh has anchored a terrific defensive line, bolstered by breakouts from Ziggy Ansah and Nick Fairley and underrated contributions from George Johnson and Jason Jones.

Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the Saints scoring enough without generating big plays on special teams or defense. Unfortunately for New Orleans, they rank last in the league in takeaways per game. Even if Calvin Johnson does not play, look for the Lions to control time of possession with Joique Bell and Reggie Bush on the ground and Golden Tate in the slot. Detroit has teased with their talent before, but this year's squad appears legitimate.

Lock: Broncos over 49ers

Sunday night brings the week's premier matchup, with Peyton Manning set to break Brett Favre's all-time touchdown record against one of the top NFC contenders. However, while the 49ers defense has been excellent in propelling San Francisco to three straight wins, it is difficult to imagine them stopping Denver's passing attack.

The 49ers rank just 21st in sack percentage, per TeamRankings.com, illustrating how their secondary has significantly outperformed preseason expectations. Despite losing three starters from last season, the Niners have benefited from huge performances from some underrated veterans, most notably Antoine Bethea and Perrish Cox:

However, the Niners are missing their greatest coverage weapon in linebacker Patrick Willis, who would have been integral toward containing Julius Thomas and even slot receivers Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders. San Francisco is less vulnerable to Denver's stack formations and man-beating concepts than most, due to their ability to play two-deep zone shells. Still, without significant pressure, Manning will find holes in the seams and middle hook zones without Willis around to patrol the intermediate areas.

San Francisco's best hope is likely to control the clock with heavy doses of Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick on the ground. However, Denver's run defense ranks fourth in DVOA; against a similar rushing attack in Seattle one month ago, the Broncos limited the Seahawks to just 3.5 yards per carry.

Thus, unless Kaepernick can move the chains consistently with steady doses of Anquan Boldin, it is difficult to imagine the 49ers keeping the ball away from the Broncos long enough to protect their back seven. Expect the Broncos to continue rolling with their third straight win since that narrow Seattle defeat.