NFL Predictions Week 7: Upset Picks and Projections

Upsets are a given when it comes to NFL picks.

Those brave enough to understand this fact and take a risk on what is shaping up to be a highly competitive Week 7 slate need to understand that this year has been anything but predictable, and that when upsets strike, they do so in the most unexpected places.

A glance to last week's contest between Dallas and Seattle sums up the wild season best. There was a time the Seahawks were favored by more than seven points, and after all, the defending champs rarely lose at home.

Except for last week.

This week presents plenty of tough calls, but with it comes a few upsets that seem likely once bettors dig deep into the matchups.

NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (Thurs., Oct. 16)	NE (-7.5)	NE	New York has too many injuries and not enough defense to stop the streaking Patriots.
Indianapolis Colts vs.Cincinnati Bengals	IND (-3)	CIN	See analysis below.
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers	GB (-6.5)	CAR	Carolina will keep this one close, but bank on another miracle from Aaron Rodgers when it matters.
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints	DET (-2.5)	DET	Detroit has an elite defense and an offense, even without Calvin Johnson, that can exploit New Orleans.
Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins	CHI (-3.5)	CHI	Chicago's offense is going to give Miami more than it can handle.
St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-6.5)	SEA	St. Louis continues to fight, but an angry Seattle team is not going to lose again at home.
Washington vs. Tennessee Titans	WAS (-4)	WAS	See analysis below.
Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings	BUF (-3.5)	BUF	The Buffalo defense should have few issues taking advantage of a rookie quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns	CLE (-3)	CLE	Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment, so expect a comfortable win.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons	BAL (-6)	ATL	In what may turn into a shootout, Matt Ryan can keep his team in it. An outright win is another conversation entirely.
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs	SD (-5.5)	SD	San Diego might just be the best team in the league. Philip Rivers will shine, even in Arrowhead Stadium.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants	DAL (-5)	DAL	Then again, Dallas might be the best team in the league. DeMarco Murray is in for a huge day.
Oakland Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals	AZ (-4)	AZ	Carson Palmer is back and looks great. Bad news for a reeling Oakland team.
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers	DEN (-6)	DEN	Peyton Manning on the road is still Peyton Manning. His defense is starting to look elite, too.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans (Mon., Oct. 20)	PIT (-4)	HOU	Pittsburgh is reeling and will not be able to counteract a defense led by J.J. Watt.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 14.  

Breaking Down Noteworthy Upset Picks

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Things are bad for the Cincinnati Bengals at the moment, to say the least.

The team was on the wrong end of that now-infamous 43-17 beat down at the hands of New England that seemed to spark the revival of Tom Brady's team. What followed last week was a tie with Carolina in town that will have a wealth of consequences down the line that are yet unknown.

With so many offensive players—Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and A.J. Green—injured, it is quite a feat that Andy Dalton has completed 68.2 percent of his passes and has six touchdowns to three interceptions.

Green is the biggest name there for obvious reasons, and it sounds like he will be a scratch, per ESPN's Adam Schefter:

Yet something still feels off about this matchup. Indianapolis has won four straight, but that run and the subsequent gaudy averages are inflated with games against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Houston, the outlier being a strong Baltimore club. The first three teams have a combined record of 5-13.

A Colts defense that ranks No. 14 against the pass and No. 11 against the rush has not truly been tested in three out of the past four weeks, and when faced with the strong offenses of Denver and Philadelphia, the unit gave up a minimum of 30 points in losses.

Even without Green, the Bengals still have Giovani Bernard to lean on, who has 384 rushing yards (4.5 average) and four scores with another 178 yards through the air.

The spread-it-around Cincinnati attack is still potent, as one can glean from the 513 total yards and 37 points posted on Carolina last week. That potent offense should be enough to allow the Bengals to sneak away with a win, as the one-dimensional Colts offense will not be able to move as effectively as it has in recent weeks.

Prediction: Bengals 28, Colts 27

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington (-4)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

So a team without its starting quarterback and the 23rd-ranked rushing attack riding four consecutive losses is a four-point favorite? 

Tennessee is bad, but not that bad.

Call this a battle of the backup quarterbacks and overall inept offenses. Emmanual Benton of ProPlayerInsiders.com puts it best:

Washington trots out Kirk Cousins under center, and his last three games as the starter in place of Robert Griffin III have been forgettable for one reason or another:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
vs. NYG	19	33	257	57.6	1	4
vs. SEA	21	36	283	58.3	2	0
at ARI	24	38	354	63.2	2	3

Tennessee coach Ken Whisenhunt does not know exactly when he will get starter Jake Locker back under center (injured thumb), so that is certainly a question mark heading into this encounter.

“When you ask Jake, he says it is getting better,” Whisenhunt said, via Jim Wyatt of the Tennesseean. “It is really going to come down to when he can grip the ball and throw it and not have issues.”

The thing is, backup Charlie Whitehurst has done well enough in Locker's absence, recently throwing for 233 yards in a win over Jacksonville, and the week before that throwing a pair of touchdowns to no interceptions in a one-point loss to Cleveland.

Tennessee can ride one of the league's better rushing attacks against a suspect defense Sunday and control the pace, whereas the staff in Washington has chosen to ignore the ground game. Against Seattle, the team attempted 36 passes and ran it 17 times. The week after was 17 more rushes as opposed to 38 pass attempts.

Barring a return to form for Cousins and a commitment to the ground game, the balanced Tennessee attack and opportunistic defense can pull off the road upset against the one-win home team.

Prediction: Titans 20, Washington 14