Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games favored at home; the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as dogs on the road. In a potential preview of an upcoming AFC playoff game the Colts host the Bengals Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Colts opened as three-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.4-31.8 Colts

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Don't blame the Bengals offense for Sunday's tie against Carolina—it did its part, racking up 513 yards, 193 on the ground, and 37 points, even without A.J. Green.

And while the defense had an off-day, allowing 431 yards, most of that can be attributed to Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who not only threw for 284 yards, but also ran for 107.

And then, of course, Cincy kicker Mike Nugent missed a short field goal at the end of overtime. Nonetheless, the Bengals rank fifth in total offense, 11th in rushing at 127 yards per game and are averaging 27 points per outing.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts have won and covered their last four games, averaging 35 points per contest. Last Thursday Indy went to Houston, grabbed a big early lead and hung on for a 33-28 victory, covering as three-point favorites. The Colts outgained the Texans 456-332, and have now outgained their last four opponents by at least 124 yards. Indy had also outrushed its previous five foes until Thursday's game.

The Colts lead the league in total offense and scoring, and their defense, which ranked 20th overall last year, ranks 13th this year, playing 16 yards per game better.

Smart Pick

These two teams just met half a season ago, when Cincy beat Indy 42-28 last December at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals outrushed the Colts that day 155-63, and covered the spread as seven-point favorites.

As for this Sunday, the idea remains the same; the team that wins the ground game will probably win and cover. But at the moment the team that appears to stand the best chance of doing that is Indianapolis, going against a struggling Cincinnati defense.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in four of Cincinnati's last six games
• Indianapolis is 7-2 straight up in its last nine games when playing Cincinnati

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.