NFL Predictions Week 7: Early Odds, Picks and Projections for Upcoming Schedule

The small sample size of the NFL season makes prognostication extremely difficult.  No other league is more vulnerable to simple weekly fickleness, yet we attempt to make sweeping conclusions from every Sunday's results regardless.

Still, with six weeks in the books, advanced stats such as Football Outsiders' DVOA and Advanced Football Analytics' team efficiency rankings are seeing less fluctuation than they have over the first month.  Given that these are predictive models, that means that these weekly results are finally starting to hold some permanent weight.

Thus, having seen each team face a variety of opponents and situations, we can make more informed decisions about these matchups.  With that in mind, let's take an early-week measure of where the spread stands on each Week 7 contest and pinpoint some games that stand out as particularly juicy bets.

Thursday, Oct. 16	Spread	Prediction
Sunday, Oct. 19	Spread	Prediction
Monday, Oct. 20	Spread	Prediction
NY Jets at New England	New England (-10)	New England
Atlanta at Baltimore	Baltimore (-7.5)	Baltimore
Tennessee at Washington	Washington (-4.5)	Tennessee
Seattle at St. Louis	Seattle (-6.5)	Seattle
Cleveland at Jacksonville	Cleveland (-5.5)	Cleveland
Cincinnati at Indianapolis	Indianapolis (-3)	Cincinnati
Minnesota at Buffalo	Buffalo (-3.5)	Buffalo
Miami at Chicago	Chicago (-3.5)	Chicago
New Orleans at Detroit	Detroit (-2.5)	Detroit
Carolina at Green Bay	Green Bay (-7)	Carolina
Kansas City at San Diego	San Diego (-5.5)	Kansas City
Arizona at Oakland	Arizona (-3.5)	Arizona
NY Giants at Dallas	Dallas (-5)	NY Giants
San Francisco at Denver	Denver (-6)	Denver
Houston at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (-4)	Houston

Best Bets

Tennessee (+4.5) over Washington

Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

The Titans and Washington have both been reeling after dominant early-season wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively.  However, this point spread likely stems from Washington receiving the three-point home-field advantage boost, which does not really reflect the talent disparity between the two teams.

In particular, the Titans have demonstrated a proclivity for picking off passes this season.  Tennessee's 3.27 percent interception percentage ranks eighth in the league, per TeamRankings.com, which puts them in position to take advantage of turnover-prone D.C. quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Additionally, the Titans do possess the seventh-ranked rushing offense based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which measures per-play success rate.  Bishop Sankey in particular has impressed with a gradually increasing workload, as the rookie has averaged 4.6 yards per touch thus far.  Sankey's speed could give Washington's depleted middle linebacker corps issues, especially with Perry Riley hampered by a knee injury.

Neither of these teams inspires much confidence based on their lackluster form over the first six weeks.  Still, simply hosting the game does not warrant such a sizable spread in favor of Washington.

Buffalo (-3.5) over Minnesota

Though Kyle Orton's insertion into the lineup has not solved Buffalo's persistent quarterback issues, the Bills possess the running game and defense to cover this early spread.  Despite a promising first start two weeks ago, Teddy Bridgewater remains a rookie, and thus a work in progress.  Bridgwater's growing pains were embodied last, week when the Detroit Lions simply blitzed the rookie into oblivion.

Buffalo is far from a blitz-heavy team, but defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's use of "Wide-9" technique defensive ends allows the Bills to generate pressure with just four rushers.  Indeed, the Bills figure to control the trenches with their line of Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes, one of the top foursomes in the league.

On offense, Fred Jackson should be able to exploit a young Vikings front seven that has been vulnerable against the run.  Minnesota has conceded at least 100 yards rushing in five of their six games this season, with free-agent signing Linval Joseph disappointing as a nose tackle anchor in the middle.

Orton may not have been able to keep pace with Tom Brady last week, but the veteran signal-caller should enjoy much lighter responsibilities against the Vikings.

Arizona (-3.5) over Oakland 

The 4-1 record does not reflect how the Cardinals have survived, despite being one of the league's most injury-plagued teams this season.  After a gritty home victory over Washington, Arizona will once again be favored on the road against the Raiders, in spite of missing numerous starters on defense.

While Arizona's pass defense ranks just 18th in pass defense DVOA, it is important to note that most of that subpar rating stems from a historically woeful performance against Peyton Manning in Week 5.  Against Oakland's limited receiving corps, Arizona's deep secondary figures to flummox rookie Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.

Most importantly, Carson Palmer's return has stabilized a passing game that was briefly in flux.  According to ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss, head coach Bruce Arians reported no concerns about Palmer following his return from nerve damage in his right arm.

Palmer has thrived over the past season in Arians' vertical stretch-oriented passing game, and his return figures to goose production for the likes of Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald.