Illinois Basketball 2014-15 Preview: Projecting Starters and Backups

The preseason talk surrounding the 2014-15 Illinois Fighting Illini basketball team has many fans excited for the season that tips off on November 14.

And for good reason.

This year's version of Illinois basketball looks to have the pieces in place to be a force at the top of the league. Head coach John Groce is entering his third season and seems to have now firmly established a new culture in Champaign.

In two seasons, Groce has gone 43-27 overall (15-21 in the Big Ten) with one NCAA tournament appearance and one NIT appearance. While these numbers won't likely make Illini fans jump out of their seats, there are reasons for optimism.

First, Groce finally has a roster that is mostly his, and that could (and should) translate to more wins for the Illini. The only guys left on the roster who were recruited by former coach Bruce Weber are seniors Nnanna Egwu and Tracy Abrams (who is out this season with a torn ACL) along with sophomore Malcolm Hill. Groce now has "his guys" to run his system, which should make a noticeable difference this season.

He also has a two-man recruiting class that includes 4-star forward Leron Black from Memphis as well as Champaign product Michael Finke, a 3-star big man from Centennial High School. Add to that transfers Ahmad Starks and Aaron Cosby, who both sat out last season, and it's quite an influx of talent on the Illini roster.

Much has been made off the court about the inability of Groce and his staff to land the "big fish" in recruiting, but actually they have greatly increased the talent level on the roster in a short amount of time. And as it stands right now, Illinois has the eighth-rated recruiting class in the nation for 2015, according to 247Sports.com. So despite what has been said, the hard work that Groce and his staff have put in on the recruiting trail has paid off, and hopefully the rewards of those efforts will start to be seen this season.

The Big Ten will once again be one of the toughest conferences, and Illinois will have its work cut out to remain in the upper echelon, but with the mix of experience returning and incoming talent, the Illini can make some noise.

Here's a look at the projected starters and bench for the Illini heading into the 2014-15 season.

Point Guard

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Projected Starter: Ahmad Starks (5'9", Sr.)

Backups: Jaylon Tate (6'3", So.), Mike LaTulip (6'1", Jr.)

The loss of senior Tracy Abrams to a torn ACL this offseason is not the news that the Illini or their fans wanted to hear. However, knowing that transfer Ahmad Starks is available to take over softens the blow.

When Starks transferred to Illinois last season for family reasons, it was thought that the senior would be granted a waiver to play immediately. However, that was not the case, and he had to sit out last year before becoming eligible for this season. At the time, it did not sit well with many in Illini Nation; however, it now looks like a blessing in disguise with the injury to Abrams.

In three years at Oregon State, Starks averaged 10.2 points, 2.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He had a field-goal percentage of .384 and a three-point percentage of .366, including a career-high .395 percentage in his junior season. He will bring some much-needed outside shooting ability to the lineup and hopefully an ability to run Groce's offense. He has three years of playing experience, which should help a still fairly young Illinois team.

Behind Starks will be sophomore Jaylon Tate, who had an up-and-down freshman season but did show the ability to run the offense when called upon. He must improve his shooting, as he shot .263 from the floor last season including an abysmal .043 from three-point land.

While he's not viewed as an elite scorer, he still must be better than that—it would be hard to be worse. He did have a ratio of two assists to one turnover, and the Illini are hoping that he can once again show his ability to run the offense and distribute the ball efficiently.

Shooting Guard

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Projected Starter: Kendrick Nunn (6'3", So.)

Backup: Aaron Cosby (6'3", Jr.)

Kendrick Nunn could become a star for Illinois during his sophomore season. He showed flashes of brilliance during his freshman year that got Illini fans excited about the future of Illinois basketball.

Nunn finished his freshman season averaging 6.2 points per game, shooting .456 overall and .388 from three-point range. In conference play, he was even better, scoring 8.6 per game while shooting .471 from the floor and .439 from behind the arc. His play in conference finally landed him a starting spot late last season, and Nunn never looked back. During this time he was named freshman of the week in back-to-back weeks in late February and early March.

His tenacious defense and ability to both hit the three and knife to the basket make him a threat all over the floor. The one area that could use some improvement is his assist-to-turnover ratio (1-1), but the hope is that will improve this season with experience. Nevertheless, Nunn is someone to watch this season.

Coming off the bench behind Nunn will be transfer Aaron Cosby, who could probably start for several Big Ten teams. He is a sharpshooter who transferred from Seton Hall and sat out last season. In two seasons at Seton Hall, he averaged 10.1 points (12.6 his sophomore year) while shooting .406 from the field and .397 from three.

He will be yet another guard who can score from the outside, which is something Illinois lacked last season. Cosby can also play some point, which should land him more playing time depending on matchups and situations. He should be a valuable piece off the bench.

Small Forward

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Projected Starter: Rayvonte Rice (6'4", Sr.)

There was no doubt that the go-to-guy for the Illini last season was Rayvonte Rice. If they needed a basket, chances were that the ball was going to Rice and he was headed to the basket.

The bruising 6'4" senior is a tough matchup for opposing defenses because he can overpower most guards and is usually too quick for a big man. Rice finished last season as Illinois' leading scorer at 15.9 points per game to go along with six rebounds. He can get to the basket almost any time he wants to because of his strength, but he still needs to improve on his outside shot, as he finished last season at .295 beyond the arc. He also had more turnovers than assists last season, which he must change this year.

Rice played mostly the 2-guard position last season but will likely spend most of his time at the 3 this year with the emergence of Nunn. He has the build and the ability to excel there and should be a force in the league during his senior season.

The Illini will likely have a few options off the bench behind Rice, but it will all depend upon matchups and situations. Obviously, Rice could see time back at the 2 this season and possibly even at point guard, if necessary.

Power Forward

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Projected Starter: Malcolm Hill (6'7", So.)

Backups: Leron Black (6'7", Fr.), Austin Colbert (6'9", So.), Michael Finke (6'10", Fr.)

Nunn wasn't the only freshman who showed high potential last season. His classmate Malcolm Hill showed that he could possibly be a solid contributor over the next few seasons as well.

Like Nunn, Hill started slowly last season and eventually joined Nunn in the starting lineup toward the end of the season. He ended up averaging 4.4 points per game while shooting .383 from the field and a respectable .381 from three.

Hill came in as a guard/wing but will probably see most of his time at the 4 this season. He's a bulky kid who can definitely mix it up down low while also stretching the defense with his shooting ability. If he can take another step this season, he could be an important piece for Groce and the Illini.

The good news for Illinois is that it has plenty of options behind Hill should he struggle. The first is freshman Leron Black. He is already being touted for his rebounding ability and toughness, which the Illini need more of. He has earned the nickname "Savage" from his teammates for his tenacity.

Black was highly regarded coming out of White Station High School in Memphis, and Groce and his staff likely expect him to contribute right away. If he can refine his game offensively and remain on the floor longer, it should give Illinois more flexibility, as the team would then be able to play Hill at the 3 and Rice at the 2 when needed.

After Black, the Illini will have two other options at the 4 spot with sophomore Austin Colbert and freshman Michael Finke. Colbert didn't see a ton of playing time as a freshman, but he is capable of giving Groce and company some quality minutes. He's a lanky kid who flashes a lot of athleticism but needs to be more consistent offensively and on the glass in order to see more time on the floor. 

Finke is a 3-star recruit out of Champaign who probably won't see a lot of time, but he has some potential as a big guy who can stretch the floor at the 4 with his jump shooting. He could provide some spot minutes here or there, but with the Illinois roster as deep as it is, Finke's contributions are more likely to happen down the road.

Center

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Projected Starter: Nnanna Egwu (6'11", Sr.)

Backup: Maverick Morgan (6'10", So.)

Illinois will have Nnanna Egwu back at center for his final season in Champaign. He is a tireless worker who has had up-and-down results over his career. It was thought that he would make a big jump offensively after his sophomore season, but he averaged only 6.9 points per game last year and often looked out of sorts in the post.

He has never been great with his back to the basket, so it's unlikely that will change much during his final year. He is a big man who can step out and hit from different spots on the floor, but he's not a banger. However, he is one of the best big-man defenders in the Big Ten and never stops working, which must go a long way with his teammates and the coaching staff. The hope is that Egwu can continue his defensive excellence and give the Illini a little more on the offensive end this season.

Behind Egwu at center will be sophomore Maverick Morgan. Unlike Egwu, Morgan seems a little more comfortable under the basket offensively and gives Illinois a different look when he comes into the game. At the same time, he is also capable of stepping out and hitting a jump shot. Defensively, he is not as developed as Egwu, but Morgan has a chance to progress into an effective big man over the next couple of years.

Outlook

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There's no doubt about it: John Groce is expecting good things this season. He's entering his third season and feels that this is the deepest team he's had. Unlike last season when the Illini had nine newcomers to the roster, this season they are returning 11 of 15 guys. According to CBS St. Louis, Groce said, "I expect a lot out of them."

It's no secret that last year's team struggled offensively, finishing ahead of only Northwestern in scoring in the Big Ten at 64.2 points per game. Groce stated that in his six seasons as a head coach it is the worst passing and shooting team he's had. So, needless to say, he's looking for improvement on the offensive end this year.

And he should get it.

The Illini have added shooters with the addition of transfers Starks and Cosby. They are expecting guys like Nunn and Hill to progress into more accomplished players in their sophomore seasons. And, of course, Illinois will lean on Rice as a go-to-guy when necessary. However, the hope is that the team won't have to rely as heavily on him as it did last season. Finally, if the Illini can get a little more offensively from Egwu in his final season, they should see their scoring average increase significantly.

Defensively, they should be tough all season long, just as they were last year when they yielded only 62.2 points per game, which was second only to Ohio State in the Big Ten. When asked about his philosophy, Groce simply stated, "They know that at Illinois, you’re evaluated on defending and rebounding." This is the foundation upon which Groce builds his teams, and there's no reason to believe that this year will be any different.

If the team can improve on the offensive end and continue the same effort defensively, Illinois will be tough to beat all season long. The Illini should finish in the upper echelon of the Big Ten and most likely return to the NCAA tournament. In fact, with what Groce is building at Illinois, I expect that there will be many more trips to the Big Dance for his squad in the future.

And that's the way it should be for Fighting Illini basketball.

Star ratings courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.