Week 6 NFL Picks: Predictions Against the Spread and Best Teams on Upset Alert

After finally getting a competitive Thursday night game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, the expectations for Week 6 of the NFL season should be raised. There was already a deep slate of marquee games to choose from, but now is the time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. 

There are four quarters to every NFL season. Teams measure themselves by their success every four games. The best teams are able to have a winning record in those four quarters, while everyone else fluctuates from 1-3 to 3-1. 

Now that we are firmly in the middle of the second quarter, time is running out for teams to prove that they can compete for a title. Some think they have done it with a strong start, but being able to sustain it is key. Here are our predictions for Week 6 against the spread, as well as the top teams on upset alert. 

Matchup	Pick
New England Patriots (-1) at Buffalo Bills	Patriots, 27-17
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)	Bengals, 28-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Pick 'Em)	Browns, 23-20
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Miami Dolphins	Packers, 31-17
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-1)	Vikings, 24-21
Denver Broncos (-10) at New York Jets	Broncos, 34-14
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4)	Titans, 26-20
San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders	Chargers, 31-13
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)	Falcons, 34-31
Washington at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)	Washington, 23-16
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks, 27-21
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-.2.5)	Eagles, 28-24
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams	49ers, 23-17

Teams On Upset Alert

Detroit Lions (+1) at Minnesota Vikings

Joe Sargent/Getty Images

I admit up front that this is cheating because the oddsmakers already have Minnesota as a one-point favorite, but if you were to ask fans on the street to pick a winner in this game, the overwhelming majority would probably say Detroit. 

Looking at the talent on paper, no one can deny the Lions aren't better. Their defense has been fantastic this year, allowing the fewest yards and second-fewest points per game. It hasn't been a cupcake schedule either with games against Eli Manning, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers thus far. 

Yet the lingering question that always seems to haunt the Lions is, which Matthew Stafford is going to show up? He doesn't have as much NFL time as Jay Cutler, but it's not too early to draw comparisons between the two. 

Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News drew the comparison between Stafford and Cutler after both had bad Week 5 performances, highlighting their eerily similar stats:

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Since Cutler was traded to Chicago in 2009 and Stafford was taken first overall by Detroit in the same year, the five-year plus numbers have a striking resemblance. Passer rating: Cutler 84.1, Stafford 83.5.

Touchdown passes: Stafford 115, Cutler 112. Interceptions: Cutler 81, Stafford 77. Completion percentage: Cutler 60.9, Stafford 59.7. Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.11, 7.05.

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On top of Stafford's erratic play, Calvin Johnson's ankle injury has left his status for Week 6 very much in doubt, per Kyle Meinke of MLive.com.

It doesn't matter how good Detroit's defense is because the offense doesn't work without Megatron. We saw that last week when the Lions gave away a winnable game against Buffalo. 

Teddy Bridgewater will be back under center this week after missing the Week 5 game against Green Bay. The rookie quarterback told Matt Vensel of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune he won't have limitations:

"The way I was feeling," Bridgewater said, "it was one of those deals where I wanted to see where it felt once the game came. But Coach Zim, he made the decision and we went from there. On Sunday I’ll be able to just play full speed."

Bridgewater tallied 344 total yards in his first NFL start against Atlanta two weeks ago. The Falcons don't have Detroit's defense, but for a rookie quarterback to have that kind of success right out of the gate is encouraging. The Vikings are going to win this game outright. 

Washington at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Despite their 3-1 start, the Cardinals are a frustrating team to figure out. Most of their issues stem from the quarterback position. Carson Palmer's shoulder remains the greatest enigma in sports. He did start throwing at practice on Wednesday, according to Darren Urban of Cardinals.com:

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At the same time, Palmer said he will likely fly back to Denver Friday afternoon to revisit the MAT (Muscle Activation Technique) work he was put through when he went there last weekend.

That would not preclude Palmer from playing. But it speaks to the uncertainty he and the team is going through with his injury.

"

Drew Stanton, who has done an admirable job filling in while Palmer has been out, sustained a concussion against Denver last week. Edward Cole of NBC Sports Radio reported he still has another part of the concussion protocol to pass before he can play:

If Stanton starts, it does increase Arizona's chances of winning the game than if rookie Logan Thomas were thrown into the fire. 

However, regardless of who the quarterback is, I'm buying Washington for one week. The defense is terrible but it shouldn't get exploited too bad against a backup quarterback like Stanton or Thomas. 

Jay Gruden also doesn't have to worry about Russell Wilson running all over the field and making impossible plays look easy this week, so that's an advantage for the defense. More importantly, though, he's been Jekyll and Hyde this season.

Kirk Cousins showed a lot against the Seattle Seahawks defense on Monday. He threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Arizona has the second-worst pass defense and has already allowed eight passing touchdowns this year. 

There's only so far Stanton can go before the bottom drops out. If he plays this week, you will start to see cracks in the foundation leading to a surprise Washington win. 

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams

LM Otero/Associated Press

The 49ers just can't catch a break. Even when they are winning games, we criticize them. The good news is the screams of their demise have shifted to a whisper with victories over Philadelphia and Kansas City. 

Even better than the fact the 49ers are winning games is how they are doing it. After trying to prove they could throw the ball with Colin Kaepernick, head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman remembered they have Frank Gore and a powerful offensive line to run behind.

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News noted on Twitter that Gore's 77 carries through five games are a career low:

Roman, speaking to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, wrote that Gore's limited touches are part of a bigger plan:

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We don’t want to just ride that stallion all day, every day. There’s a point of diminishing returns at some point. That’s almost true for any player at that position. Who gets hit more than running backs?

I think we’re in good shape and feel confident, and I think Carlos Hyde is an ascending player. And we’ll have a chance to work with another running back pretty soon.

"

That's not the kind of quote that comes out well for Roman. You can understand his meaning, but Gore's carried the ball 42 times the last two games for 226 yards. Riding your horses as much as you can as long as you can is what's made this offense successful under Harbaugh. 

Another problem the 49ers have is figuring out the red zone. Gore is part of that, but Kaepernick missed Anquan Boldin with a high pass in the end zone late in the game against Kansas City that would have sealed the victory. Instead, the 49ers settled for five Phil Dawson field goals and won 22-17. 

The Rams have played better than their 1-3 record indicates. Austin Davis looks surprisingly good at quarterback with back-to-back 300-yard games and six touchdown passes in the last two weeks. 

Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk noted after the Rams' loss at Philadelphia in Week 5 that Davis looks like a better fit in the offense than Sam Bradford:

San Francisco's defense has tightened up in the last two weeks with 17 points allowed—remember, all of Philadelphia's points in Week 4 came on special teams and defense—but teams have had success at times moving the ball through the air. 

There's not enough talent on the Rams for me to predict an upset. The 49ers' strength as a power-run team also matches up well with St. Louis' 29th-ranked run defense, but given the strength of Davis as a passer so far this season, this game will be closer than it looks from afar. 

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