Fantasy Football 2014: Top 10 Quarterbacks to Buy Low or Sell High

It’s time to start thinking about trading depth for a strong starting lineup in fantasy football. One of the key factors in any trade is strength of schedule, especially in the fantasy playoffs. Find out what the future holds for quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo as you decide whether to buy low or sell high.

The most important aspect of weighing any trade is knowing when the trade deadline is in your league. All the speculation below is moot if you don’t get the deal done before the deadline.

CBS Sports’ trade deadline strikes during Week 11; ESPN, Yahoo and NFL.com block trades during Week 12.

Guidelines

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The quarterbacks on this list are ranked based on strength of schedule from Week 6 on, according to Fantasy Pros.

Strength of schedule is determined by Fantasy Pros’ points allowed to QBs statistics. The average QB PA is 16.6. The best is Washington’s 23.4 points per game; the worst is Detroit’s 11.8.

Individual fantasy scoring is reported from ESPN’s standard scoring list.

Bye weeks are figured into this assessment.

The end of the fantasy regular season for this ranking is considered Week 13. The fantasy playoffs are Weeks 14-16, ignoring the often chaotic Week 17. If your league plays through Week 17, all I can do is offer my condolences.

Honorable mention

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Buy Low

Colin Kaepernick’s legs always make him an interesting prospect.

Nick Foles is hard to trust after such an inconsistent start, but his playoff opponents—Seattle (18.6), Dallas (14.6) and Washington (23.4)—are averaging an intriguing 18.7 PPG in QB PA.

If Cam Newton returns to his old form after the rib injury. His playoff opponents—New Orleans (19.1), Tampa Bay (18.2) and Cleveland (19.2)—are averaging 18.8 PPG in QB PA.

Sell High

You could float Aaron Rodgers out there with some tougher matchups against Minnesota (14.7), New England (13.2) and Buffalo (14.8) down the stretch, but you better get top-tier value in return.

10. Sell High: Tom Brady, New England Patriots

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Some of you might be thinking I’m crazy right now, but you should never discount a player’s name value when discussing trades. Brady maintained fantasy-stud status for so long there’s bound to be an owner or two in your league who doesn’t realize he and the entire Patriots offense have fallen off a cliff.

Especially if the last thing they remember is New England’s Sunday night turnaround against Cincinnati.

Brady faces three soft defenses in QB PA Weeks 7-9—the Jets (21.5 points per game), Chicago (17.7) and Denver (18.8)—all in Foxborough. Then the Patriots settle into a Week 10 bye, affording you two weeks to identify the Boston lover in your league and work some magic.

The art of any trade is subtle. Need some tips?

If you’re working the deal over the phone, make sure there’s some Dropkick Murphys playing in the background. If you’re meeting in person, make sure it’s at a Dunkin’ Donuts.

Be sure to mention Tim Wright becoming the next Aaron Hernandez—minus the psychopathic tendencies.

If that doesn’t work, slip in that omnipresent Larry Fitzgerald-to-the-Patriots trade rumor.  

9. Buy Low: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

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If you didn’t think I was crazy before, now you’re convinced considering Luck is the third-ranked QB in the league according to Fantasy Pros’ expert consensus rankings.

Luck may be matchup-proof, as demonstrated by a 23-point performance on a Houston Texans defense allowing 14.9 PPG to QBs entering Week 6.

But if he isn’t, Luck owners face a rough road against Cincinnati (13.9), Pittsburgh (14.2), a bye and New England (13.2) in four of the next five weeks. Then Indianapolis gets Jacksonville (21.9), Washington (23.4) and Cleveland (19.2) in Weeks 12-14, just as most leagues’ trading period expires.

Keep a close eye on Luck’s performance over the next month. If he falters, you might catch a break and steal him from a desperate owner unwary of his favorable late-season schedule.

8. Buy Low: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

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It’s a fact that Stafford is not the same quarterback when Calvin Johnson isn’t healthy. When Johnson wore down with a bum knee late in 2013, Stafford sunk with him, dropping from 19.7 PPG in the fantasy regular season to a devastating 6.3 PPG in the playoffs.

Head coach Jim Caldwell said there’s nothing to worry about in an interview with 97.1 FM (h/t MLive’s Justin Rogers):

"

You know, the doctors have not given us any indication that there is any real threat of a long-term issue. Obviously, any time that he's hampered a little bit, I know folks are going to be concerned, but he's always been a quick and steady healer. We anticipate the same thing in this case.

"

If Caldwell’s right, the Lions offense will probably limp along with Johnson over the next few weeks before enjoying four favorable matchups over the final six weeks: Arizona (19.6), Chicago (17.7), Tampa Bay (18.2) and Chicago (17.7).

If Megatron recovers, snatch up Stafford just as the roar is restored in Detroit.

7. Sell High: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

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Blasphemy?

Perhaps, especially considering Denver is taking on a Jets defense that surrendered at least two passing touchdowns in each of its first five games.

Manning hasn’t scored under 20 points this season and failed to reach that mark only four times last year. If any fantasy QB is matchup-proof, it’s this guy.

Plus he’s one of just two QBs on this list that have already taken a bye and won’t miss a start in the final 11 fantasy weeks, barring injury.

The reason you would even consider trading Manning is he doesn’t face an above-average matchup in QB PA after Week 6. This concern could be overrated considering Manning’s prowess and experience, but who knows what a tough slate of defenses could do to a 38-year-old body?

Obviously you wouldn’t deal one of the all-time greats without raking in a bountiful return—top-tier starters at two positions, at least. If such a deal exists, the reward will be worth the risk for those brave enough to take it.

6. Buy Low: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

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Brees is averaging 16.8 PPG and hasn’t scored over 19 points this season. That’s not what the owners of the second QB drafted want to hear, according to Fantasy Pros' average draft position composite.

Jimmy Graham’s sprained shoulder is a concern, but he’s got the Week 6 bye to recover.

New Orleans’ short-term schedule is more troubling with five of the toughest defenses in QB PA on the docket over the next seven weeks: Detroit (11.8), Green Bay (14.1), San Francisco (14.3), Cincinnati (13.9) and Pittsburgh (14.2).

Then Brees and the Saints draw Carolina (18.3), Chicago (17.7) and Atlanta (16.1) for the fantasy playoffs—the third-most favorable lineup on this list.

Take advantage of the Saints’ struggles and head into the fantasy playoffs with a proven winner.

5. Sell High: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

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It’s difficult to recommend discarding a guy who’s currently scorching defenses at a 20.4 PPG clip.

The problem is Rivers’ only tantalizing matchups are against the Broncos (18.8) in Weeks 8 and 15. That might be shortsighted considering Oakland’s (14.8) and Kansas City’s (15.9) defenses might be smoke and mirrors ripe for exposure.

Rivers and the Chargers will find out if the Raiders and Chiefs are for real in each of the next two weeks.

If San Diego struggles, market him aggressively after what should be a shootout vs. the Broncos.

4. Buy Low: Eli Manning, New York Giants

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Manning and the Giants are reversing last year’s fortunes in New York and fantasy owners should take notice.

Manning is the least-owned QB on this list—due to last year’s debacle and a slow start in ’14—so you might be able to steal him off your waiver wire instead. He is currently owned in 66.7 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues, up 11.2 points in the last seven days.

He has the third-most favorable schedule of the QBs on this list, facing defenses averaging 16.1 PPG in QB PA. Odell Beckham Jr.’s debut fortifies an already dangerous arsenal including Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell.

Steal Manning off the waiver wire if he’s still sitting there, or fire up a reasonable deal to snatch him off somebody’s bench. You won’t regret it.

3. Buy Low: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

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Wilson’s status among his contemporaries and forebearers is a fiery debate topic these days.

What isn’t debatable is Wilson’s 22.3 PPG average is third-best among fantasy QBs. That’s not bad for somebody that was drafted 14th on average, behind Jay Cutler (19.0 PPG), Colin Kaepernick (15.6) and Robert Griffin III (2.2).

Seattle’s opponents over the next 11 weeks average 16.7 PPG in QB PA, which is second best on this list. Wilson also joins Peyton Manning as the only other QB on the list who has already had their bye.

The playoff schedule appears tough for the Seahawks, who host San Francisco (14.3) in Week 16. But that game is bookended with Philadelphia (22.1) and Arizona (19.6), both palatable matchups for fantasy QBs.

Wilson should be available for a reasonable asking price, unless of course his owner flies a blue No. 12 flag outside their home. In that case, you’d be better off exploring some of the other alternatives on this list.

2. Sell High: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

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Cutler and the Bears are cruising right along in spite of revolving injuries to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

The problem is Cutler is still Cutler, giving up eight turnovers in five games. That’s a foreboding stat given the Bears have only two sure things left on the docket: Tampa Bay (18.2) in Week 12 and New Orleans (19.1) in Week 15.

Cutler is staring into the barrel of defenses ranking 13.4 PPG in QB PA, the worst average on this list.

This week’s matchup at Atlanta (16.1) should end up a shootout, which means Cutler’s numbers will inflate at the perfect time to strike a deal.

Don’t hesitate on this one, because even Cutler isn’t enamored with his prospects for the rest of the season.

1. Buy Low: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

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Romo tops the list because the Cowboys figure to blast through soft defenses averaging 17.4 PPG in QB PA, the best total on this list.

Romo also boasts the third-best fantasy playoff lineup, facing Chicago (17.7), Philadelphia (22.1) and Indianapolis (15.3) for an average QB PA of 18.4. The fact that Romo struggled in September only strengthens your case when soliciting his services.

Be sure to play up the “Romo isn’t clutch” propaganda, all the while knowing it’s just a myth.

Snatching Romo now will most certainly guarantee you’ll be grinning like Jerry Jones in the owner’s box come December, even if he isn’t.

Keep these quarterbacks in mind as you ponder the potential moves over the next few weeks. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up some light reading or catch a flick for inspiration while you’re at it.