Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 6: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

The most difficult part of writing about fantasy sports—fantasy football in particular—is the wide range of scoring formats leagues use.

In my three leagues I care about, one has completely standard scoring but no flex players, one is a half-point-per-reception league and the other rewards long touchdowns and is touchdown dependent in general.

The fantasy community at large generally agrees that all "advice" columns are for standard formats—10- or 12-team leagues without weird positional quirks or points per reception. On average I'd guess a majority of leagues follow that format, but an increasing number want to make their leagues "unique." Five years from now standard leagues will probably stay as such but only because the "non-standards" will be fractured in a billion little variations.

Essentially: Standard leagues are the Big Bang Theory of fantasy football.

As such, I want folks to keep that in mind for this and all advice articles. These are suggestions that may not exactly apply to your quarter-point reception, double-point touchdown league. Only you know the scoring rules, managers and contents of your league. In 10-team formats, it is perfectly OK to drop Steven Jackson and not think twice. In 16-team formats, he's an essential player because you know he's at least going to get some work this week.

Same rules go for the following start 'em, sit 'em advice. Know your league and apply these rules if they seem fit.

Quarterback: Start Eli Manning Over Matthew Stafford

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Stafford came into 2014 as one of the few supposed locks at quarterback. His three straight years with 4,500-plus yards and the whole having-the-best-wide-receiver-in-football thing tends to engender some level of trust. The Lions also signed Golden Tate and drafted tight end Eric Ebron in the first round, giving Stafford arguably the best skill-position talent of his career.

Things...haven't gone as planned.

Stafford has only two multi-touchdown games under his belt through five weeks and sits 10th in quarterback scoring in part because Detroit has not had a bye week. While Stafford has a perfectly fine matchup in Minnesota this week—the Vikings rank 24th against the pass and run in DVOA, per Football Outsiders—the disappointment is likely to continue thanks to the absence of that future Hall of Fame wideout.

Calvin Johnson has a right high ankle sprain and is considered much less than a 50-50 proposition to play. Lions coach Jim Caldwell told reporters, via ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein, he's "strongly" considering holding out the team's best player. 

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Three times in his career Stafford has played in a game where Johnson has sat. All three times it did not go particularly well. The Lions scored a total of 22 points in Megatron's two absences a year ago, and Stafford was miserable in a third, largely irrelevant contest during his rookie season. It's no coincidence that Detroit has struggled to score in the second half the last two weeks once teams realized Calvin Johnson was not Calvin Johnson.

Meanwhile, Manning came into 2014 pretty much playing for his job. After a miserable 2013 campaign saw the two-time Super Bowl winner throw a league-high 27 interceptions and miss the playoffs for the second straight season, the writing was on the wall for the Manning-Tom Coughlin era. Longtime offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride was jettisoned in favor of Ben McAdoo, a telltale sign that the bandwagon was headed off the rails.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Manning has responded by putting himself on pace for the best statistical season of his career. He's thrown for 11 touchdowns against five interceptions, four of which came in the first two weeks. McAdoo's quick-strike system has played right into Manning's intelligence at the line and helped cut off his propensity for making poor downfield decisions.

The Giants visit Philadelphia this week, an outfit that ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA and has given up the fourth-most yardage through the air on average. Only Washington has given up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. With Manning still available in 35 percent of ESPN.com leagues, he's worth a long look.

Running Back: Start Ben Tate Over [Insert Waiver Wire RB Here]

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Ronnie Hillman, Branden Oliver and Andre Williams ascend into their respective starting lineups this week, which sent the world at large scrambling to the waiver wire. In these cases I often wonder what the most messed-up thing league-mates will promise another owner to not pick up one of these players.

In high school, a friend offered $50 in a 10-team, $10-per-person league in exchange for not picking up Larry Johnson when Priest Holmes was injured. I happily obliged—right until his mother called mine complaining about taking her son's birthday money from his grandparents. It was a whole thing. (He still owes me that money.)

Anyway, even if you missed out on one of those players for more scrupulous reasons, not all is lost. At least as long as you had, and then held onto, Ben Tate. The Browns running back returned from a knee injury in Sunday's comeback win over the Titans, rushing for 124 yards on 22 carries.

More important than the final stat line was the fact that Tate looked healthy running the football and was the clear No. 1 back. Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell, who split duties while Tate was out of the lineup, had 13 carries combined. 

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

If that's a sign of things to come, Tate will be a borderline top-10 back for as long as he stays in the lineup. The Browns have quietly been one of the NFL's most efficient offenses in 2014, ranking fourth in passing DVOA and fifth on the ground. Cleveland's offensive line has emerged as one of the very best against the pass and run, with rookie Joel Bitonio looking like a future Pro Bowler at right guard. (Joe Thomas and Alex Mack remain awesome.)

The Steelers, who are allowing 4.5 yards per rush and are 3-2 on the back of a weak schedule, visit Cleveland on Sunday. Tate was well on his way to a huge performance before going down in the first half of the teams' first matchup.

As for Tate vs. the Free-Agent World, let's make this quick. Hillman has had chances to ascend on Denver's running back depth chart before; it's never gone well. Oliver plays behind perhaps the worst run-blocking offensive line in football. Williams is at a complete loss in the passing game; his value is highly touchdown-dependent. 

I like all three just fine, but Tate is in a better situation and has a solid matchup.

Wide Receiver: Start Sammy Watkins Over Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Wes Welker, etc.

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

If anything, Buffalo's benching of EJ Manuel for Kyle Orton reminded us of one thing: Sammy Watkins is pretty good at football. Watkins took advantage of having a quarterback who threw it somewhere in his general vicinity last week, catching seven passes for 87 yards against a Lions defense that's been one of the best in football.

Truth be told, Watkins did nothing different than he has all season. He used his off-the-ball explosion to generate separation, ran solid routes and got himself into space time and again. The difference was Orton, who completed 30 of 43 passes for 308 yards and looked exactly like the competent quarterback he's always been.

"He's more of a veteran guy. The way he talked, the way he handles business, the way he looks at plays and breaks down defenses, it's kind of different than EJ," Watkins told reporters before last week's game. "He reads it quicker, the ball is coming out faster. That's just some things that we have to adjust to." 

1) Ouch.

2) This is only a good thing for Sammy Watkins.

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The former Clemson star spent the first quarter of his rookie season putting up inconsistent counting stats in large part thanks to Manuel's inability to get the ball off on time or accurately. In losses to San Diego and Houston, Manuel targeted Watkins 17 times. They connected six times, none going for gains longer than 16 yards.

Despite an upcoming matchup with Darrelle Revis, Watkins has a higher upside than the trio of veterans listed above.

We may have reached the point with Fitzgerald where we can stop blaming his quarterback and wondering if he's done. The future Hall of Famer has not had more than five fantasy points at all this season.

White has scored two touchdowns to salvage his value, but he's yet to catch more than five balls, and he and Matt Ryan have connected on just half of his targets.

Welker is now Peyton Manning's fourth target behind both Thomases and Emmanuel Sanders; his value is touchdown-dependent.

Tight End: Start Jordan Reed Over Your Favorite NFC East TE...

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...But please have a backup in place.

The Washington tight end has missed the last four weeks after suffering a hamstring injury early in a Week 1 loss to the Texans. He's since been replaced by Niles Paul, who emerged in his own right until a concussion kept him to limited duty last week. Paul should be back to full health for Sunday's matchup with the Cardinals, but it's looking like Reed will be as well.

“Definitely shooting for Sunday,” Reed told reporters after practice Wednesday. “I feel like if I get everything done this week and everything goes smoothly, I’ll be out there Sunday.” 

The best-case scenario here is picking up Paul and awaiting word on Reed's status. Paul is still available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues and has been a strong play every week he's been healthy. Before mostly splitting duties with Logan Paulsen on Monday against Seattle, Paul had at least 60 yards every game.

That, essentially, is Reed's future if he can stay in the lineup. Kirk Cousins has an affinity for throwing seam routes to tight ends, and he's aggressive enough to fit balls downfield into tight windows. (Sometimes to his own detriment.)

The Cardinals also rank sixth-worst in opposing fantasy points to tight ends. Feel free to deploy your Washington tight end freely. Just be sure to check the injury report and make sure it's the correct one.

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