NFL Picks Week 6: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Week 6 of the NFL season feels like the first marquee weekend. There have been big games here and there, but the quantity of quality games starting Thursday with Indianapolis against Houston running through Monday night is the best we have seen so far. 

Of course, this being the NFL, all the games we have high expectations for could easily turn into blowouts. An excellent case in point was New England last week beating Cincinnati by 26 points six days after getting destroyed by 27 points in Kansas City. 

Whatever happens, it will all be thrilling and compelling to watch. We've got a look at the updated odds for this week's games and what experts are saying about the key matchups. 

Matchup	Pick
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans	Colts, 24-17
New England Patriots (-3) at Buffalo Bills	Patriots, 27-17
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)	Bengals, 28-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1)	Browns, 24-21
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Miami Dolphins	Packers, 31-17
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (NL)	Lions, 20-17
Denver Broncos (-11) at New York Jets	Broncos, 41-10
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers, 27-24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (NL)	Titans, 20-14
San Diego Chargers (-8) at Oakland Raiders	Chargers, 34-14
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)	Falcons, 34-31
Washington at Arizona Cardinals (NL)	Cardinals, 24-23
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks, 27-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)	Eagles, 28-24
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams	49ers, 24-17

Expert Predictions

New England at Buffalo

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

There are bigger games on the schedule, but New England vs. Buffalo is fascinating because no one knows what to expect from the Patriots. They were declared dead after losing to the Chiefs, then blew out a team that many considered one of the best in football. 

Keep in mind the Bills enter this game tied with the Patriots atop the AFC East. There's a lot of football left to be played and no one expects them to remain in the division race with Kyle Orton at quarterback, but the Bills are an intriguing team in many areas. 

Pete Prisco of CBS Sports did pick the Patriots to win, but he didn't do it with the same level of conviction you would expect based on the talent difference between these two teams:

"This is a game for first place in the AFC East," Prisco wrote. "The Patriots got out of their funk against the Bengals, while the Bills won a tough game at Detroit last week. Kyle Orton did some good things, but he also threw a pick-six. The Patriots will find a way to win a tight one."

Finding ways to beat Buffalo is just what the Patriots have done in the Tom Brady era. The future Hall of Famer has a career record of 22-2 in 24 career games against his AFC East rivals. 

Brady had easily his best game of the season against Cincinnati last week with 292 yards and two touchdowns. The Pats finally got back to using two tight ends. Rob Gronkowski had 100 yards for the first time this year, while Tim Wright had five catches on five targets for 85 yards. 

Wright could be the key to Brady's success this year. He's been targeted nine times and has nine receptions, so there's a trust and rapport developing between the two that should only get better as he gets more comfortable in the offense. 

The Bills have to be better on offense to win this game. Orton did some good things and some bad things last week. Sammy Watkins' development is the best thing that happened to Buffalo last week. He had a career-high 12 targets with seven receptions. 

Watkins against Darrelle Revis is one of the best receiver-cornerback matchups to watch.

Chicago at Atlanta

Whether you think these are playoff teams or not, there might not be a game that's more fun to watch in Week 6 than the Bears against the Falcons. These two teams have as much offensive talent as anyone in the NFL and virtually no defense to speak of. 

The Falcons are third in yards (434.6) and points (30.2) per game. The Bears don't have the stats you would expect given their talent, 16th in points per game (23.2) and 17th in yards per game (348.6).

Some of Chicago's disappointing numbers can be attributed to Jay Cutler's habit of throwing interceptions, but the defense is tied for second with seven interceptions. It's not a great unit as far as getting stops and preventing scores (26.2 points allowed), so it relies on creating short fields by getting turnovers. 

Despite the frustrating nature of Cutler, Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News believes that the Bears' weapons are slightly better than what Matt Ryan will be playing with:

"

It’s hard to beat Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome, but Ryan’s not playing defense against the Bears’ weapons. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery is the slight lean over Julio Jones and Roddy White, but Cutler can also lean on Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte to move the ball on a fast track. Both teams have had some line woes, but the Bears overcome them better here.

"

While there are certainly arguments to be made for the duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery over Julio Jones and Roddy White, my disagreement with Iyer's pick comes from the fact that you have to trust a quarterback to get those receivers involved. 

As bad as Atlanta's defense is, allowing 407.2 yards and 28.6 points per game, Matt Ryan has six touchdown passes and no interceptions in two home games. Cutler has been solid in three road games with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, but the picks came last week against Carolina. 

If you want to try predicting which Cutler will show up, you're a braver man than me. I will take my chances betting on Ryan at home. 

Dallas at Seattle

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

This is the measuring-stick game for Dallas. The Cowboys have won four straight games, though we are still waiting to see how good they are. Wins over Tennessee, St. Louis, New Orleans (which looks dreadful now) and Houston aren't exactly game-changers, though at least the Cowboys are winning these games. 

Unfortunately, the Cowboys are a bad stylistic matchup for the Seahawks. They are a run-heavy team going into the hardest place to play against a run defense that is first in yards allowed (249), yards per carry (2.6), forced fumbles (five) and has allowed one rushing touchdown. 

On CBS Sports, Prisco isn't as concerned with the Cowboys' ability to move a ball as he is with their ability to keep Russell Wilson in check:

"Russell Wilson did some impressive things against the Redskins on Monday night," Prisco wrote, "and Seattle is even better at home. The Cowboys have a top offense, but the problem here will be on defense. Seattle should be able to move the football. Can Dallas keep up? Not in this one."

While Wilson certainly is an X-factor, what Seattle has done against the run strikes me as the bigger story. DeMarco Murray has been masterful through five games by nearly lapping the field in yards, via NFL on ESPN:

A weak aspect of Murray's game is holding onto the football. He leads all running backs with three fumbles on designed runs and has four total. You have to keep the ball locked up against a stout, opportunistic defense like Seattle's. 

Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett also set off some alarm bells by saying that the team is going to scale back his workload to preserve him long-term, via Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas:

"

DeMarco was out there and we think that's probably too many carries in the game, week in and week out. He ended up with 31 so we'd like to get that number lower. We'd really just like to get the other guys an opportunity. I don't see any wear and tear in DeMarco but having said that, we want to make sure we create a rotation and we'll focus on doing that in the next few weeks.

"

Given what we know about the fickle nature of running back durability, it makes sense that Garrett would want to do everything possible to keep Murray healthy and productive. 

However, if the Cowboys aren't moving the ball on the ground and are limiting Murray's carries against Seattle, that means Tony Romo will be asked to win a game through the air. He can do great things as an NFL quarterback, but there are always those moments that make you wonder how he's lasted this long. 

The Cowboys will keep this game close, but the Seahawks at home are virtually impossible to beat. 

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