NFL Week 6 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

Believe it or not, the house seems to be on a shaky foundation this season.

Las Vegas constructs NFL spreads to put bettors at a disadvantage, but those who put in the hard work usually find one or two major flaws in the latest offerings.

Look at last week, when the opening lines suggested the New Orleans Saints would blow away the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points (the Saints won by six in overtime) and that the reeling New York Jets would only lose by seven in San Diego (they lost by 31).

Surely, the Week 6 line has a few holes too. Let's take a look at the full lineup and pick out a few lines that seem ripe for financial gain.

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Indianapolis at Houston (Thurs., Oct. 9)	IND -3.5	IND	On a short week, logic says to ride with Andrew Luck, not Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Jacksonville at Tennessee	TEN - 6	TEN	Tennessee is slowly incorporating all of its talented wideouts, meaning Jacksonville won't keep up.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay	BAL - 3.5	TB	At home, Tampa Bay has a developing pass game that will give Baltimore some issues.
Denver at NY Jets	DEN -9	DEN	Peyton Manning or a team with a quarterback controversy. Tough call.
Detroit at Minnesota	DET -3	DET	Detroit stops the run well and should have few issues scoring on the Minnesota defense.
New England at Buffalo	NE -3	NE	See analysis below.
Carolina at Cincinnati	CIN -7	CAR	Carolina remains one of the better teams in the league, whereas Cincinnati is coming off a crushing loss.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	CLE -2	PIT	These two put together a classic a few weeks back, but Ben Roethlisberger can scrape out another win on his own.
Green Bay at Miami	GB - 3.5	GB	See analysis below.
San Diego at Oakland	SD -7	SD	This does not really need an explanation, but Philip Rivers is the best QB in the league at the moment.
Chicago at Atlanta	ATL -3.5	ATL	Atlanta gets a major home advantage and should be able to torch a hobbled Chicago secondary.
Dallas at Seattle	SEA -8.5	DAL	Dallas is one of the best rushing teams in the league and should be able to counter Seattle in that manner to keep things close.
Washington at Arizona	ARI -4	ARI	Arizona's defense will force more than a few mistakes from Kirk Cousins.
NY Giants at Philadelphia	PHI -3	NYG	New York has a prolific offense at the moment and a pass rush that eats most offensive lines alive.
San Francisco at St. Louis (Mon., Oct. 9)	SF -4	SF	Austin Davis has played great, but all San Francisco has to do is ride an elite ground game to a telling victory.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 7.

Highlighting Easiest Plays

New England Patriots (-3) at Buffalo Bills

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Had this spread been made two weeks ago, it would have made more sense.

New England destroyed the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night, while Buffalo stumbled to a three-point victory in Detroit after former Lions kicker Alex Henery missed three field goals, including a game-winning try.

Buffalo thought it wise to bench developing quarterback EJ Manuel in favor of veteran Kyle Orton, but he managed just 308 yards, a touchdown and an interception against a top-five pass defense.

Coincidentally enough, thanks to Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and a host of others, New England touts the No. 3 pass defense in the league. Obviously, what concerns Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, then, is a ground game led by Fred Jackson, as captured by Lee Schechter of ESPNBoston.com:

"

He is running the ball extremely hard, very powerful. He’s still very explosive through the line of scrimmage. He’s also a big threat and target for their offense in the passing game. They do a good job of getting the ball out to the running back in the screen game. Fred Jackson does an excellent job creating those yards after the catch.

"

Jackson averages 4.8 yards per rush, but when New England is able to jump out on teams early, as it did against Cincinnati, an elite ground game means little.

In order to quell the talks of New England's demise, the Patriots began to use a two-tight end set to great effect last week:

	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LG	TGTS
R. Gronkowski	6	100	16.7	1	27	11
T. Wright	5	85	17.0	1	30	5

Against a defense that ranks No. 20 in the league against the pass, New England will glide to a comfortable win as its defense forces the Bills into a one-dimensional attack not conducive to scoring a ton of points.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 17

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins

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So, a Green Bay team that just destroyed Minnesota 42-10 and only has losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit is not going to take care of business comfortably against a .500 Miami team without an identity?

Questionable at best, so get those bets ready.

Miami steamrolled New England to start the season before the Patriots got their act together. Since then, the only notable win has come against the Oakland Raiders. Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun Sentinel puts it best:

Against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, it matters little if the Dolphins have been strong on the ground when Knowshon Moreno is healthy. The 23rd-ranked passing attack will face more pressure than ever to produce consistently to keep up with a Green Bay offense that has scored a minimum of 31 points in three out of its last four games.

Dolphins defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle weighed in on the matter:

Not only is Rodgers completing 66.7 percent of his passes on the year with 12 touchdowns to one interception, but back Eddie Lacy has also gotten his act together and has three scores over the course of his last two games.

To be fair, Green Bay does rank last against the rush, with an average of 163.0 yards allowed per game. But that rarely translates to a win for the opposition, as the defense employs a bend-but-don't-break approach.

The point is, the Dolphins are not exactly known for posting gaudy point totals. A ground-and-pound approach will work, but only if the team can jump out to a lead. Against Rodgers, that just does not seem all that likely.

Prediction: Packers 28, Dolphins 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).