How Fernando Alonso Quitting Ferrari for McLaren Would Shake Up 2015 F1 Grid
The on-track action paled into insignificance at Suzuka last Saturday as two of the biggest driver switches in the recent history of Formula One edged towards completion.
As all eyes were focused on Fernando Alonso, the double world champion, and Ferrari—who, as per Sky Sports' James Galloway, had agreed to separate after five seasons on Thursday—it emerged that Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel, the four-time world champion, were to part company at the end of 2014.
Despite having his thunder well and truly stolen by Vettel, his chief rival in recent years, Alonso is widely expected to announce a return to McLaren, the team he departed after just one acrimonious campaign in 2007, for 2015.
The significance of Alonso's transfer—even without the news of Red Bull's new direction—was always bound to have a range of consequences up and down the pit lane.
Some drivers would be forced to move on, while others would be forced to remain with their current teams, with members of the next generation offered a chance to impress.
As we await confirmation of Alonso's McLaren move, here are five ways how it will impact the appearance of the 2015 Formula One grid.
Sebastian Vettel Leaves Red Bull for Ferrari
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Sebastian Vettel's departure from Red Bull Racing at the end of the season was confirmed by the team over the Japanese Grand Prix weekend.
His destination has not yet been announced, but it is an open secret that he is on his way to Ferrari.
The German was first linked with a move to the Prancing Horse as long ago as 2012, when BBC Sport's Andrew Benson claimed that Ferrari had "a deal in place" for Vettel to join the Italian team, which will to come into effect a year later than initially forecast.
Christian Horner, the Red Bull team principal, told Sky Sports that Vettel was Ferrari-bound at Suzuka, with Marco Mattiacci, his Ferrari counterpart, making little effort to deny Horner's claim when he was approached by Ted Kravitz during Sky Sports' television coverage of qualifying.
Although Peter Windsor, the F1 journalist, has via The Racer's Edge Youtube channel urged us not to completely discount the prospect of Vettel popping up at McLaren-Honda next year—a move that, at this moment in time, would appear to have slightly more potential than a switch to Ferrari—the four-time world champion will almost certainly wear scarlet red in 2015.
Jenson Button Leaves McLaren and Heads for Retirement
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Should Alonso return to McLaren, the team will face a choice between Jenson Button and Kevin Magnussen, their current drivers, for the second seat.
And when you consider that Magnussen is just 22 years of age, a graduate of the outfit's young driver scheme and is currently competing in his first season of Formula One, it is relatively easy to predict who will win that particular battle.
The Dane's best years are supposedly ahead of him, while Button's are seemingly behind him.
The 2009 world champion has in recent months hinted that the end is nigh, telling Andrew Benson of BBC Sport at the Belgian Grand Prix: "If I have to retire at the end of the season then so be it."
And at the Japanese Grand Prix, the British driver told the official Formula One website: "I wouldn’t feel sorry for me. Whatever happens, I wouldn’t feel sorry for me."
Although Button would be a valuable coup for the majority of the 10 other teams on the grid, it is difficult to envisage a scenario which would see the 34-year-old offered a reprieve—and, more significantly, whether Button himself would be willing to continue his career at a less competitive outfit for the sake of remaining in F1.
A switch to the World Endurance Championship, a move that so many ex-F1 drivers have made, would be a possibility—despite the Frome-born driver telling Autosport's Edd Straw last year that Le Mans would not appeal to him—but the more Button-esque option would be to take off into the setting sun and put his feet up for a few years at least.
Fight to Partner Max Verstappen at Toro Rosso
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Scuderia Toro Rosso became the first team to formally announce their drivers for 2015 in August, with the news that Max Verstappen, the teenager, would compete alongside Daniil Kvyat.
However, Sebastian Vettel's surprise exit from Red Bull Racing, and Kvyat's subsequent promotion to the four-time title-winning team, has left a vacancy at Toro Rosso, with a host of drivers in contention to replace the Russian.
Not among those, you suspect, will be Jean-Eric Vergne—who was initially replaced by Verstappen for next year—with the Frenchman telling ESPN F1 of his shock at being overlooked for the seat vacated by Vettel after spending three seasons at Toro Rosso, the training ground for future Red Bull drivers.
That leaves three contenders from the Red Bull Junior Team, which—as per the company's official website—currently boasts the likes of Carlos Sainz Jr., Pierre Gasly and Alex Lynn.
The favourite to graduate is Sainz Jr., the son of the former World Rally Champion, who is on course to become the first Red Bull young driver to win the Formula Renault 3.5 Series, with the Spaniard linked by AS (h/t ESPN F1) to Caterham earlier this season to gain Formula One experience ahead of a Toro Rosso bow in 2015.
The team's decision to initially overlook Sainz Jr. in favour of Verstappen for next season, however, was curious, and will offer hope to Gasly, a fellow Formula Renault 3.5 driver, and Lynn, the GP3 championship leader.
And after all, Toro Rosso's decisions when it comes to driver choices are not exactly the easiest to predict.
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Nico Hulkenberg Misses out on a Top Drive Again
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Nico Hulkenberg has been knocking on the door of the leading teams since 2012, but has never found any room in any inn.
That trend looks set to continue this year, with the transfers of Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel set to leave no spare seats at McLaren and Ferrari, while the drivers of Mercedes, the world champions in waiting, Red Bull and Williams—the German's former employers—are secure.
Force India announced a "multi-year deal" when they confirmed the return of Hulkenberg last December and with the Silverstone-based team on course for their best-ever season in 2014, staying where he is will be disappointing rather than disastrous.
And if he does race in Force India colours in 2015, it will be the first time in his Formula One career that Hulkenberg has remained with a team for a second season in succession.
Romain Grosjean Trapped, or Very Vulnerable, at Lotus
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Romain Grosjean has been very aggressive in his attempts to leave Lotus at the end of 2014, informing Sky Sports' James Galloway as long ago as July's British Grand Prix that he was "open" to a move away in the hope of winning races.
If the widely expected moves at the front of the grid do occur, however, the Frenchman will be left with no alternative but to stay where he is—but who's to say that the Enstone-based team and its partners will want him to continue driving their car, despite a record of nine podiums across 2012 and 2013?
Grosjean has dealt with Lotus' slip from podium contenders to backmarkers in a poor fashion, frequently berating the outfit and Renault, their power unit supplier, over pit-to-car radio.
That disappointment would be understandable, of course—until you consider that his prime sponsor, Total, is linked to Renault.
With Lotus' team principal, Federico Gastaldi, telling Jonathan Noble and Dieter Rencken of Autosport that a deal to switch from Renault to the all-conquering Mercedes engines is imminent, there is suddenly less reason from the financially troubled team to retain Grosjean—although the 28-year-old is the only Lotus driver to score points this season.
But with Pastor Maldonado and his moneybags locked in for 2015, Mercedes could take advantage of their new partnership, and Lotus' money worries, to "do a Red Bull" and place one of their affiliated drivers—Pascal Wehrlein, the 19-year-old, was recently announced as the Silver Arrows' reserve driver—in the spare seat.
It might be a long-ish shot, but Grosjean is arguably the one to keep an eye on as the silly season enters its latter stages.
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