NHL Power Rankings: Odds Shark Betting Power Has Bruins on Top

Dirty Harry probably would have disliked power rankings and opinion polls.

In 1998’s The Dead Pool, he muttered the classic quote that opinions are like a certain body part— "everybody has one."

But when an opinion is shared by someone with a stake in the matter, that opinion carries more weight. Would you trust someone more if he had money on the line or had his reputation on the line?

In determining the most powerful NHL team at the start of the 2014-2015 season, we put more weight behind a bookmaker, who has to put odds on which team will win the most games, than on the words of a team blogger or a TV analyst.

By that standard, and in keeping with the math that generates the OddsShark.com NHL Power Rankings, the Boston Bruins top the preseason chart. Bovada set the Bruins point total for the season at 112.5, higher than any other team.

That’s one more than the Chicago Blackhawks (who rate No. 3 on our list) and six more than the 106.5 points set for the defending champion Los Angeles Kings, who sit atop most power polls.

So while we have seen the Boston Bruins as low as No. 7 in some preseason rankings and power polls, they are No. 1 at Odds Shark, where winning bets is a key measuring stick.

Bruins No. 1, but not the best team

The opening data is used exclusively from 2014, when the Bruins got nothing from newcomer Loui Eriksson or the injured Dennis Seidenberg and still finished first overall.

Do they have the offensive depth on the third line to make a deep playoff run? Probably not, but this is a regular-season power ranking, and the Bruins are powerful enough to run the table against Eastern Conference weaklings like the Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Add a perennial tower of power named Zdeno Chara and the league’s best goalie in Tuukka Rask, and you have the team that will earn bettors the most cash this season.

Chicago, however, might have the most talented roster, and it’s an upset just about any time the Blackhawks lose. They rank No. 2 on our list and No. 2 on the Bovada sportsbook team point prop list at 111.5. If the Hawks played in the East, they would be an easy No. 1 in this poll.

That East-West talent differential keeps the Pittsburgh Penguins at No. 3 in opening power rankings. Like the Bruins, they enjoy a steady diet of division and conference cupcakes, which pads their power, their projected point total (105.5 is almost identical to Sidney Crosby’s projected point total) and the number of times Penguin bettors will cash bets this season.

Our computers have the San Jose Sharks at No. 5, a placement that the humans at OddsShark.com disagree with. Their point total of 102.5 is less than that of the St. Louis Blues (No. 4 in our poll and a potential Presidents' Cup winner with the addition of centers Paul Stastny and Finnish import Jori Lehtera), the Anaheim Ducks (No. 6) and aforementioned Kings at 105.5 (No. 7).

While many power rankings have the Colorado Avalanche near the top, they are No. 10 here and primed for a regression. The blue line is suspect, head coach Patrick Roy’s first-year honeymoon is over and the Avs cannot reasonably expect goalie Semyon Varlamov to reprise his superb 2013-14 season.

Their point total was set at 98.5, and the prediction is that they will fall well below that in the stacked West.

Ahead of them sit the New York Rangers at No. 8 and Tampa Bay Lightning at No. 9. Both teams have question marks at center, and the Rangers lost several key players in free agency.

The best of the rest

11. Dallas – If veterans Jason Spezza, Erik Cole and Ales Hemsky can produce as a second line, the Stars can surpass their 89.5 point total.

12. Philadelphia – Lack of blue-line mobility and scoring depth could keep the Flyers out of the playoffs and their win total under 90.5.

13. Columbus – Rising team that could fall with contract disputes (Ryan Johansen) and injuries (Boone Jenner, Nathan Horton) before the season even starts.

14. Arizona – Higher in our rankings than in sportsbook projections (80.5), the Coyotes always seem to scratch out victories.

15. Washington – The Caps have talent galore and added defensive help, but question marks remain around goaltending and overall grit.

16. Detroit – String of 23 consecutive playoff appearances ends this year. They are one Henrik Zetterberg injury away from the draft lottery

17. Minnesota – Our "opinion poll" has them in the top 10 with the addition of Thomas Vanek and a surge of young talent. Their point total is 98.5, the same as Colorado at No. 10.

18. New Jersey – Headed in the wrong direction in skill and age, the Devils are projected to miss the playoffs and come in under 83.5 points.

19. Nashville – Patchwork free-agent signings of Olli Jokinen, Mike Ribeiro and Derek Roy feel like treading water, but the Preds have league’s most dominant blueliner in Shea Weber and one of the best goalies, when healthy, in Pekka Rinne.

20. Montreal – Primed for regression; the Habs allowed too many solid vets to walk.

21. Vancouver – Why was Ryan Miller added to an aging core? We have them way under 88.5 points.

22. Winnipeg – Youngsters like Nikolaj Ehlers are coming, but not fast enough to save the playoffs.

23. New York Islanders – Snagging Leaf castoffs (Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski) is not the blueprint for building a winner.

24. Ottawa – Youth movement underway translates to a win total under 78.5.

25. Carolina – Jordan Staal injury + lame free-agency effort = worst season in years.

26. Toronto – Sorry, Leaf fans, but underachieving forwards, overrated defense and no backchecking means nowhere near 88.5 points.

27. Calgary – Rebuilding effort Phase 1 means lots of losing to get more high picks for rebuilding effort Phase 2 next year.

28. Edmonton – Added solid blue-line help. At some point all this talent has to start winning, no?

29. Florida – Happy to lose and secure the No. 1 draft pick again.

30. Buffalo – (See Florida).

Team	Rank	Overall	Modifier	Adjusted	Win OU	Pick
Boston	1	12.568	0.495	6.215	112.5	Over
Chicago	2	12.239	0.498	6.094	111.5	Over
Pittsburgh	3	8.687	0.496	4.307	105.5	Under
St. Louis	4	8.115	0.495	4.02	105.5	Over
San Jose	5	7.146	0.496	3.543	102.5	Under
Anaheim	6	5.911	0.495	2.923	105.5	Over
Los Angeles	7	4.011	0.498	1.997	106.5	Under
NY Rangers	8	3.531	0.498	1.759	95.5	Over
Tampa Bay	9	2.316	0.498	1.153	94.5	Over
Colorado	10	0.86	0.495	0.426	98.5	Under
Dallas	11	-0.003	0.5	-0.001	89.5	Over
Philadelphia	12	-0.321	0.5	-0.161	90.5	Under
Columbus	13	-1.68	0.499	-0.842	90.5	Under
Arizona	14	-2.014	0.502	-1.004	80.5	Over
Washington	15	-2.642	0.501	-1.318	88.5	Over
Detroit	16	-2.71	0.501	-1.353	91.5	Under
Minnesota	17	-3.271	0.499	-1.638	98.5	Under
New Jersey	18	-3.402	0.503	-1.693	83.5	Under
Nashville	19	-3.411	0.501	-1.701	76.5	Over
Montreal	20	-4.341	0.498	-2.18	93.5	Under
Vancouver	21	-5.916	0.502	-2.946	88.5	Under
Winnipeg	22	-7.427	0.502	-3.701	80.5	Under
NY Islanders	23	-7.647	0.503	-3.801	81.5	Under
Ottawa	24	-8.059	0.502	-4.016	78.5	Over
Carolina	25	-8.281	0.502	-4.123	81.5	Under
Toronto	26	-10.924	0.501	-5.448	88.5	Under
Calgary	27	-11.272	0.503	-5.607	71.5	Over
Edmonton	28	-17.808	0.505	-8.814	80.5	Over
Florida	29	-19.335	0.505	-9.57	70.5	Under
Buffalo	30	-25.305	0.508	-12.44	65.5	Over

About the OddsShark.com NHL power rankings:

The data comprises stats-based formulas on the full 2013-2014 season and will begin including current season data with rolling averages and weighting for recent games. Therefore, it does not contemplate the active free agency in St. Louis or the quiet one in Boston nor does it make projections guessing at the impacts of those roster moves.

Stats and odds and commentary courtesy of Odds Shark.