NFL Predictions Week 5: Projecting Scores for Biggest Games on Schedule

Week 5 is a big turning point in terms of momentum in the NFL. Teams' identities are beginning to manifest themselves with better clarity. Their strengths and flaws are more transparent.

It's thus becoming easier to distinguish contenders from pretenders, which players are hitting their stride and those whose early success or struggles appear to be aberrations.

Following yet another Thursday night blowout featuring the Green Bay Packers toasting the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North battle, all 28 clubs still to play in Week 5 have plenty on the line. But there are certain games that stand out from the rest as ones to keep a particularly keen eye on.

Below we'll examine the best Week 5 matchups in greater detail and project scores for those games, analyzing what the outcome will mean in the grander NFL scheme.

Houston Texans (3-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Be honest: Would you have tabbed this as a marquee game before the season?

Everything is indeed bigger in Texas as a clash of 3-1 NFL franchises plays out at AT&T Stadium. A lot of talk will probably be about Houston's defense and what it can do to slow down a balanced, explosive Cowboys offense.

However, the leadership of linebackers Justin Durant and Rolando McClain have helped Dallas' maligned other side of the ball, horrendous in 2013, suddenly improve a ton. That has been a big driving force behind the Cowboys' success thus far.

Oft-criticized quarterback Tony Romo has gotten some necessary help from the defense, but most notable has been the play of workhorse running back DeMarco Murray. 

ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon highlights just how historic and good Murray has been:

The Texans tried to run Arian Foster at the dawn of the season much like America's Team has leaned on Murray. Unfortunately, Foster hurt his hamstring, which has hampered Houston ever since with journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.

Foster had eight carries for six yards last week after missing Week 3 and carrying the ball a whopping 55 times in the first two games. At least John McClain of the Houston Chronicle has this encouraging update:

Whether Murray withers down the stretch remains to be seen. He's showing no signs of slowing down now, though, as opposed to Foster last week. The NFL's leading rusher gives Dallas a big advantage in the backfield, and Romo is a superior option to Fitzpatrick any given Sunday.

Houston was fortunate to beat an EJ Manuel-led Buffalo Bills team at home in Week 4. This will be a statement game from the Cowboys, as they'll cement themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Texans 17

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The self-described "old man playing a young man's game," as was seen on Inside the NFL, Ravens receiver Steve Smith is having a renaissance to say the least. After spending his whole career with the Carolina Panthers, the 35-year-old Smith took his former team to task in Week with 139 yards and two touchdowns.

One can't help but think Smith is in for a letdown after that, especially since he's averaging over 100 yards per game.

Doubting Smith is often silly, given the boulder-sized chip on his shoulder. This week, it's not as much a knock on him as it is high praise for Colts star Andrew Luck.

The Ravens have tended to start slow, but Luck has had Indy coming out of the gates firing, scoring 24 first-quarter points in the past two contests, both victories.

I was never shy about doubting Luck. Despite the two 11-win seasons to start his career, the 2012 No. 1 overall draft pick often made too many mental errors, flat-out inaccurate throws and poor decisions with the ball.

Then everything changed over the past two weeks.

Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton forewent the need to establish the run after an 0-2 start, allowing his blue-chip QB to throw it 80 times. Luck completed 60 of them—yes, 75 percent—and eight of those attempts went for touchdowns.

Well, wow. That is what a No. 1 pick should look like. Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs is certainly taking notice, via CSN Baltimore (h/t NFL.com's Dan Hanzus):

"

We're real impressed with the kid and we don't say that a lot. Usually we come up here and play the political game, we're like, 'Oh, this guy can make every throw' and 'This guy's pretty good,' but this guy's actually really (expletive) good. He is really good and he can run, he ran like a 4.5 or something at the combine so he's out running most defensive ends and everything. It's going to be a fun, entertaining game.

"

When a Super Bowl champion and supreme pass-rusher like Suggs is saying things like that, you know someone is for real.

These numbers from the NFL on ESPN are further proof of Luck's legitimacy:

The concept of luck has nothing to do with it. The proverbial light has gone on for Luck, the precocious face of the Colts franchise, and now the rest of the league is starting to see his true might.

In the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, with a head coach in Chuck Pagano who knows Baltimore well, having served as defensive coordinator there as recently as 2011, Luck won't let this game get away.

It's going to be close, because the Ravens have no slouch of an offense themselves. It's just unwise to bet against Luck as he's on the precipice of his real arrival as an elite quarterback, on a two-game winning streak and smelling blood in the water in a wide-open AFC South division.

Prediction: Colts 31, Ravens 27

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) vs. Denver Broncos (2-1)

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Is it even possible for a QB matchup featuring Broncos legend Peyton Manning and career backup Drew Stanton to foster a close game?

Although Denver is playing host and was bound to be a slight favorite, one spread on OddsShark.com has the Broncos favored by nine points. That seems like a lot, perhaps too much.

Stanton has done enough to keep the Cardinals undefeated. Both teams are coming off a bye week. Arizona's defense is 18th against the pass, yet it's fourth against the run and could force Manning and Co. to be one-dimensional to a fault.

The big concern here is that the Cards have just three team sacks in three games. It's hard to get to Manning as it is with his razor-sharp football IQ and ability to avoid crushing hits with the best to ever play the game.

With corners like Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie on the outside, Arizona has overcome key losses on the front seven, excelled well enough in coverage and been stout versus the run to get to 3-0.

But trying to beat Manning without getting considerable pressure on him on the road just doesn't seem feasible. I'll take Manning over Stanton with an extra week to prepare, based on this from ESPN's RJ Bell:

That doesn't mean Arizona is doomed. It's an achievement that coach Bruce Arians has steered his team to wins over the rising San Diego Chargers, the improving New York Giants and the perpetually contending NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers. None of those teams have losing records.

Washington and the Oakland Raiders, a combined 1-7, are up next for the Cards, so this close call won't devastate team morale.

Meanwhile, a Denver win will solidify its status as a Super Bowl contender and continue a trend of pulling out close games, which it's been able to do in 2014 save for a visit to Seattle that resulted in an overtime defeat.

Prediction: Broncos 20, Cardinals 17