Week 5 NFL Picks: Predicting Marquee Matchups Against the Spread

While the volume of marquee games on the NFL's Week 5 schedule won't measure up to what we see late in the season, this figures to be one of the most important weeks of the year. Teams are still jockeying for position, and the time to climb out of the doldrums is quickly passing. 

It's also a great opportunity for the surprise teams to cement their status as true contenders. September is over, and the start of October is when you start to see the wheat separated from the chaff. A slow start early in the season isn't crippling, but that can only last so long before a slump becomes a trend. 

As the countdown to Sunday begins, we are going to offer our picks for every Week 5 game and take an in-depth look at the biggest games on the schedule. 

Matchup	Pick
Chicago Bears (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers	Panthers, 24-21
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	Cowboys, 24-14
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7.5)	Lions, 27-17
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	Colts, 30-27
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Steelers, 35-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-11.5)	Saints, 28-20
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-4)	Giants, 23-20
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	Rams, 27-24
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (Pick 'Em)	Browns, 23-16
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-9)	Broncos, 34-20
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7.5)	Chargers, 28-17
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-5)	49ers, 27-21
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Pick 'Em)	Patriots, 23-21
Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) at Washington	Seahawks, 23-13

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

AJ Mast/Associated Press

This battle between the Ravens and Colts seems to have sneaked up on the schedule. It's quietly a huge game between two surging teams, though the level of Indianapolis' resurgence remains to be seen. 

The Ravens have been as steady as any team since their Week 1 loss at Cincinnati. They have won their last three games by a combined score of 87-37. The running game has been terrific during this three-game win streak, averaging 148 yards on the ground. 

When he's not calling out his former team, Steve Smith is playing wide receiver at the age of 35 better than anyone in NFL history, via NFL on ESPN:

On the other side, the Colts offense matches up well against the weakness of Baltimore's defense. Andrew Luck leads the NFL with 1,305 passing yards and 13 touchdowns. More than half of those yards (763) and touchdowns (eight) have come in the last two weeks against Jacksonville and Tennessee. 

Regardless of the quality of his competition, Luck did make history with his performances against the Jaguars and Titans, via NFL.com's Gil Brandt:

If Luck really has taken the next step in his development process after a slow start, by his standards, this will be the game we find out. He's never faced the Ravens in a regular-season setting but did face them in the playoffs as a rookie, which has little relevance for either side now. 

The Colts should have no problems exploiting a Ravens defense that is allowing 260.3 passing yards per game and has just four sacks through four games. It's going to be a fun shootout that Indianapolis will walk away from victorious.

Colts 30, Ravens 27

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-9)

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

The biggest game of the weekend has lost some of its luster with the news that Carson Palmer's fickle shoulder isn't cooperating enough to let him play against Denver, via ESPN's Adam Schefter:

It's a devastating blow because despite what the Cardinals' 3-0 record indicates, Drew Stanton has been average (at best) in his two starts. He did have two big touchdown passes in the second half against San Francisco, but completing 51.6 percent of your passes isn't going to work against the Broncos. 

Peyton Manning has been dazzling this year, completing 66.7 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and just one interception. His last drive in the loss against Seattle was a masterful display of his poise and command of a huddle. 

Arizona's weakness on defense has been against the pass, allowing 244.7 yards and just three sacks. It loves to bring extra pass-rushers on the blitz, leaving a lot of one-on-one coverage for Manning to exploit down the field. 

Denver's defense hasn't clicked like we expected, allowing 390.6 yards per game, but it's been able to get pressure on the quarterback with eight sacks and only allowed four passing touchdowns. Going against a backup quarterback will be the elixir this unit needs to perform up to standards. 

Broncos 34, Cardinals 20

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-5)

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Alex Smith's return to San Francisco will be the overriding theme of the game between the Chiefs and 49ers, but this is more about two teams still trying to figure out their identities. 

The Chiefs had their best game of the season against New England on Monday night. It was the perfect blend of how this team needs to win. Smith was accurate with 20 completions on 26 attempts, and the running game dominated the Patriots with 207 yards on 38 carries. 

Despite that success, running figures to be more problematic against a 49ers defense that was masterful against Philadelphia last week and has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game. They've done it against quality running backs like Matt Forte, Andre Ellington and LeSean McCoy. 

More important for the 49ers in their victory over the Eagles is they finally let Frank Gore do what he does so well. After having 35 carries in the first three games, the veteran running back had 24 carries for 119 yards. 

Colin Kaepernick is still making mistakes and showing erratic accuracy, but when the 49ers are able to control the clock like they did last week, it's hard to beat them. Even against a banged up Eagles offensive line, it was nice to see Jim Harbaugh's defense get pressure on an opposing quarterback for the first time all year. 

The comparisons between Smith and Kaepernick have come out in the days leading up to this matchup. NFL on ESPN tweeted out this statistical breakdown of how similar they've been since 2012:

Kaepernick still has more explosiveness and better weapons on the outside to use, though the health of Vernon Davis will play a huge role in this game. As long as the 49ers don't forget Gore like they did in the first three games against a Chiefs run defense that's allowing 116.5 yards per game, they will get over .500 for the first time since being 1-0. 

49ers 27, Chiefs 21

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