Week 5 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Normally by the quarter pole of the NFL season, things are beginning to stabilize. Top contenders are establishing their dominance, sleepers are emerging and a group of teams is already fading. The outlook is far more murky in the early going this year, though.

Heading into Week 5, there are only two undefeated teams (Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals) and two teams that have looked overmatched (Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders). In the middle, there are 28 teams with plenty of questions to answer.

In terms of picking games, the high amount of parity and the lack of certainty makes things more tricky. It raises the importance of a select few key matchups in each game. Knowing that, let's check out the complete slate for Week 5 along, followed by an examination of the top picks on the board.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Oct. 5	Bears	Panthers	CAR -2.5	CHI
Oct. 5	Browns	Titans	TEN -1	CLE
Oct. 5	Rams	Eagles	PHI -6.5	PHI
Oct. 5	Falcons	Giants	NYG -4	NYG
Oct. 5	Buccaneers	Saints	NO -10	NO
Oct. 5	Texans	Cowboys	DAL -6.5	DAL
Oct. 5	Bills	Lions	DET -7	BUF
Oct. 5	Ravens	Colts	IND -3.5	BAL
Oct. 5	Steelers	Jaguars	PIT -6.5	PIT
Oct. 5	Cardinals	Broncos	DEN -7.5	ARZ
Oct. 5	Chiefs	49ers	SF -5.5	KC
Oct. 5	Jets	Chargers	SD -7	NYJ
Oct. 5	Bengals	Patriots	CIN -1.5	CIN
Oct. 6	Seahawks	Redskins	SEA -7.5	SEA

Top Choices

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The St. Louis Rams rank 30th in the league in points allowed at more than 28 per game. Making matters worse, two of the three teams they have faced rate in the bottom third of the league offensively. Now they have to face the high-powered, fast-paced Eagles.

It's a golden opportunity for the Philadelphia rushing attack to get back on track. The normally dynamic LeSean McCoy is averaging fewer than 50 yards per contest so far. As Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News notes, he should face far less resistance this week:

The Eagles are 3-1, including a road win over the Indianapolis Colts and a narrow road loss to the San Francisco 49ers, despite lackluster output on the ground. If McCoy is able to get back on track this week, and he should, the sky's the limit for this offense.

While Austin Davis has shown some intriguing flashes since taking over for Shaun Hill, the Rams simply don't have enough firepower to keep pace with Philadelphia. Expect the Eagles to pull away to a comfortable win in the second half.

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

This is a key game for the Cardinals. Even though they are 3-0 coming out of the bye, the bandwagon from a national perspective isn't filling up quite yet. But if they can go into Denver and win, or at least push the Broncos to the limit, that respect will start to come.

They have a good chance to do exactly that. Arizona has three corners capable of playing physical man coverage against the Denver receivers. It will allow the Cardinals to disguise their coverages, which is something Patrick Peterson says is key against Peyton Manning, as noted by Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.

"Make sure every single coverage is the same so we can make sure that we can get into his head versus him getting into ours," he said.

The other good news for the Cards is that the Broncos haven't found their stride offensively yet. They rank 22nd in yards per game, about 120 yards off last year's pace. It doesn't make them any less dangerous, but it does show they aren't in top form quite yet.

Add in a Denver defense is still trying to jell after several offseason additions, and the game sets up well for the underdogs. The Cardinals might not be able to pull off the upset, but they should be able to keep it within a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints (-10)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve praise for their late comeback against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week to get in the win column. That said, this is a tough ask, playing a third straight road game against a New Orleans Saints squad that hasn't lost at home since 2012.

Despite their win last week, the overall numbers still paint a concerning picture for the Bucs. They rank 30th in total offense and 26th in total defense. In the game immediately prior to the win over Pittsburgh, they were blown out 56-14 by the Atlanta Falcons.

Being able to bounce back from that defeat to win is an example of the previously mentioned lack of certainty around the league. But when you take the entire picture into account, all signs point to this game becoming a sizable win for New Orleans.

Drew Brees' quarterback rating is 10 points higher in home games in his career, and that trickles down to the rest of the offense. The Saints are also desperate for a win after a 1-3 start. Expect them to score a big win on Sunday.