NFL Week 5 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

NFL terms such as "favorites" and "underdogs," statuses handed down by the powers in Las Vegas, have not worked out so well this season.

As a brief example, remember when New Orleans was a three-point favorite in Dallas last week? Those who rode with the Saints sat with a straight face as the so-called favorite got whipped 38-17.

Those who banked on another favorite, New England, did much of the same thing the very next night as the Patriots were handed a 41-14 loss.

While rather extreme examples, it seems that has been more common than usual this season as most known about the NFL, or thought to be known, has been flipped on its head. Week 5 is no exception, or at least we do not think it will suddenly be, so here is a look at the full list followed by a closer look at some of the top teams hit with the dreaded labels.

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Chicago at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Chicago's defense is downright not talented enough to capitalize on a hobbled Carolina backfield.
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN (-2.5)	Cleveland	See analysis below.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI (-7.5)	Philadelphia	Chip Kelly's offense will not find it difficult to rediscover balance and productivity against the leaky St. Louis defense.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG (-4)	NY Giants	Eli Manning and Co. have finally wrapped their brains around the new, efficient offense. Atlanta's defense line and offensive line are a mess.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO (-11)	Tampa Bay	See analysis below.
Houston at Dallas	DAL (-6)	Dallas	Dallas limps into this one on the defensive side of the ball, but it won't matter much against the Houston offense.
Buffalo at Detroit	DET (-7.5)	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and a potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND (-3.5)	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT (-7)	Pittsburgh	Blake Bortles in his first home NFL start will cause issues, but the Pittsburgh attack is too talented to lose.
Arizona at Denver	DEN (-7.5)	Denver	Peyton Manning will eventually overtake a strong defense without much opposition from Drew Stanton.
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF (-6.5)	San Francisco	San Francisco will be able to take advantage of a coaching staff that struggles to implement its best players.
NY Jets at San Diego	SD (-7)	San Diego	Philip Rivers is the hottest player in the league at the moment and will have no issues posting more points than New York's quarterbacks.
Cincinnati at New England	CIN (-2)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati is the hottest team in the league at the moment and gets a reeling New England club on a short week.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	SEA (-7.5)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 2.

Notable Favorite Breakdown: New Orleans Saints (-11)

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

It is quite incredible that a team can go from a popular Super Bowl pick to losing 38-17 to being favored by 11 points in the span of a month or so.

What?

The Saints are not who we thought they were. The offense is, well, a Saints offense, but the defense is an absolute mess, ranking No. 28 against the pass (272.5 yards allowed per game) and No. 21 against the rush (123.5).

In short, the team the Saints encounter at home must be awful, right?

Well, sort of.

Tampa Bay is in the cellar of the NFC South with the Saints at the moment, but coach Lovie Smith has finally put some semblance of stubbornness aside (perhaps only due to an injury to Josh McCown) and gone with Mike Glennon under center.

All Glennon did with the opportunity last week was get the team its first win of the season on an epic late comeback and finish with 302 yards and two scores to one interception. Now there is no going back, as thoughts from Smith show, as captured by STATS LLC, via ESPN.com:

"

When you're labeled the quarterback of the future, that's what you're supposed to do when you come out. The future was in front of us a little earlier than the initial plan, but you need to be ready at all times. How (Glennon) handled it right there at the end, having to make that final throw, kind of said it all.

"

While Tampa Bay does tout the No. 29 pass defense in the league and the Saints are gunning for win No. 10 in a row at home, the spread here seems a tad ridiculous, almost as if it were fashioned before the season.

The Buccaneers, even at their lowest points, still only lost their first game of the season by six points. The second was lost by just two. Week 3 was the 56-14 loss in Atlanta, but as the weeks press onward that seems an outlier.

New Orleans will likely pull this one out, but expect the Buccaneers to hang around.

Prediction: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23

Notable Underdog Breakdown: Cleveland Browns (+2.5)

Some of the lines this week are downright difficult to explain, with the highlight being this one.

The Tennessee Titans, losers of three straight, including 33-7 and 41-17 outcomes, perhaps with an injured starting quarterback, are favorites over the Cleveland Browns, a team coming off a bye week.

Get those bets in, folks.

Normally Cleveland is a team bettors would shy away from, but the Browns have a top 10 rushing attack thanks to the efforts of Terrance West (204 yards and two scores on a 4.3 per-carry average) and Isaiah Crowell (141 and three on 5.2), both of whom happen to be rookies.

David Richard/Associated Press

As if that were not enough, the Browns figure to get actual starter Ben Tate back from injury, too.

As if that were not enough, Tennessee simply cannot stop the run, ranking No. 22 overall thanks to the unit surrendering 127.0 yards per game on the ground.

On the flip side, Tennessee does figure to get quarterback Jake Locker back under center after he missed one game with a wrist issue. That sounds like a win, but Locker is only completing 56.4 percent of his passes and has three touchdowns to four interceptions.

The Browns do struggle defensively, but the numbers are a tad inflated due to matchups with Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Tennessee struggles to pass or run the ball well and Locker may not be 100 percent in the first place.

Cleveland has two losses by a combined five points this season, both of which came against divisional foes. The team has had an extra week to prepare for this one, so feel safe for once with the Browns.

Prediction: Browns 27, Titans 24

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).