NFL Week 5 Picks: Final Predictions and Over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Lambeau Field for an NFC North clash with the Green Bay Packers to open the Week 5 slate Thursday night. It's already a key game for both sides, which are 2-2 in what's shaping up to become a tightly contested division race.

It's a tough game to predict from an over-under standpoint because both offenses have been volatile in the early going. They combined for 79 points in a pair of wins last week. The week before, however, they both lost and had just 16 points.

That makes it difficult to consider the game a lock in either direction. So let's check out the complete slate of games and make over-under predictions for each. That's followed by some of the top picks on the board for Week 5.

Week 5 Over-Under Selections

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Oct. 2	Vikings	Packers	47.5	Over
Oct. 5	Bears	Panthers	45.5	Under
Oct. 5	Browns	Titans	44	Over
Oct. 5	Rams	Eagles	47.5	Over
Oct. 5	Falcons	Giants	50.5	Under
Oct. 5	Buccaneers	Saints	48.5	Under
Oct. 5	Texans	Cowboys	46.5	Under
Oct. 5	Bills	Lions	44	Over
Oct. 5	Ravens	Colts	48	Over
Oct. 5	Steelers	Jaguars	46.5	Over
Oct. 5	Cardinals	Broncos	49	Under
Oct. 5	Chiefs	49ers	44.5	Under
Oct. 5	Jets	Chargers	43.5	Over
Oct. 5	Bengals	Patriots	46	Under
Oct. 6	Seahawks	Redskins	45.5	Under

Top Choices

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Over)

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The early signs from Blake Bortles have been mostly positive. He's made some rookie mistakes, which is expected. Beyond that, he's completed better than 70 percent of this throws and hasn't looked overwhelmed or jittery in the pocket like many quarterbacks early in their careers.

On the flip side, the Steelers offense is one of just five units averaging more than 400 yards per game. A large part of that is due to Le'Veon Bell. He's been a force on the ground and also helps out of the backfield in the passing game. Patrick Daugherty of Rotoworld highlights that success:

Bell and Co. should face little resistance Sunday. Jacksonville's defense has looked completely overmatched so far. It's giving up over 450 yards and nearly 40 points per game, so the Steelers are likely to cover a vast majority of the line themselves.

Bortles should have more chances to take some shots deep this week than he did on the road against the San Diego Chargers. The Steelers have given up at least 19 points in every game. The Jags shouldn't even have to get that high for the game to go over.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (Under)

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All the talk about the 49ers defense potentially taking a step back hasn't materialized. The unit ranks second against the run and seventh against the pass. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the 49ers have faced the Dallas Cowboys, the Chicago Bears, the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Kansas City defense can't quite match those numbers, but it has been strong too. It ranks 11th in yards allowed and inside the top 10 in points allowed.

A key factor is being able to attack the quarterback. Kansas City's defense is tied for second with 12 sacks, including five from Justin Houston.

When you couple those two solid defenses with a pair of offenses that prefer to control the pace of the game on the ground, you have a recipe for a low-scoring game. Neither side is going to push the tempo and get out of its comfort zone.

Furthermore, neither offense is built to push the ball downfield regularly. Both sit in the bottom third in terms of passing yards, so even though they combined to score 67 points last week, this game feels like a safe under.

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions (Over)

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A couple of days ago, this pick would have been an under. Any remaining confidence in the Buffalo offense under EJ Manuel was gone. His lack of accuracy was seriously bogging down a group that otherwise had enough talent to succeed.

Kyle Orton isn't a miracle worker, but he's an upgrade right now. And when you're a franchise that hasn't made the playoffs in 14 years, that should be the only concern. The Bills passed along comments from head coach Doug Marrone, who summed it up quite simply:

Does it mean Buffalo is suddenly going to light up the scoreboard? No, but the unit should be far less of a liability with somebody leading the way who can get the ball into the hands of Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Mike Williams to let them go to work.

There are far fewer questions about the Lions offense. The running game needs to start showing more explosiveness, but this game will rest on the shoulders of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson against the Bills' 25th-ranked pass defense. They, along with the Orton-led Bills, should push it over the line.