Duke Basketball: Factors That Will Make or Break Blue Devils in 2014-15

"National championship or bust" may be asking too much from the Duke Blue Devils in the 2014-15 season, but it is certainly a "deep run in the NCAA tournament or bust" scenario for the team.

Mike Krzyzewski’s squad inexplicably lost to Mercer in its first game of the last NCAA tournament and needs to redeem itself quickly. Landing an absolutely loaded recruiting class certainly helps in that regard, and now it is time to win some basketball games.

There are a few things that will make or break this freshman-dominated squad on the path to an ACC crown and potential deep postseason run.

Let’s take a look at them.

Defense

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Duke finished 116th in Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defensive efficiency during the 2013-14 campaign, which is the only explanation for how the team ranked No. 2 in pace-adjusted offensive efficiency saw its season end after one tournament game.

The perimeter defense was lackluster at best and consistently let ball-handlers get to the rim with relative ease. The guards also failed to close out on perimeter shooters far too often.

The interior defense wasn’t much better and didn’t have much of a shot-blocking presence. Beyond allowing opponents to get to the rim, the big guys weren’t quick enough on their rotations to protect the basket.

Andrew Nelles/Associated Press

Fortunately for Duke fans, the answer for the defense comes in the form of two players in particular.

Jahlil Okafor will man the paint while Justise Winslow patrols the outside. Winslow can defend up to four positions thanks to his length, athleticism and quickness and will likely find himself guarding the opponent’s best player almost every night.

Winslow will be a security blanket for the perimeter defenders, who will now be able to take more chances knowing the big guy is in front of the rim.

Jon Rothstein of CBSSports.com had some high praise for Okafor:

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I'm not saying Okafor is going to be Tim Duncan because that wouldn't be fair. Duncan is one of the best big men to ever play basketball at any level, but Okafor is going to be the best pure center that the college game has seen in quite some time.

The 6-foot-10 Okafor is a throwback. In a time where fewer true five-men are playing the game and the position is filled with shot blockers or power forwards masquerading as centers, Okafor is like a mid-1990s NBA big man with post moves, craftiness and incredibly long arms. The Chicago native is the type of jaw-dropping talent that comes along once every couple of decades. 

"

Duke just can’t have an incredibly poor defense and accomplish its season goals of a conference title, Final Four appearance and national title run. Okafor and Winslow will make sure the Blue Devils are drastically better on that side of the ball.

Rebounding

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Duke finished an abysmal 193rd in the country in total rebounding last year.

There is not much to add here that is different than the themes of the defense section. The Blue Devils cannot afford to rebound like that for a second consecutive year and expect to win any type of championship, be it in the conference or on a national stage.

Again, Okafor will be critical here. His incredible strength will help him clear out space on both ends of the floor and grab the majority of rebounds that come within arm’s length.

Don’t overlook Amile Jefferson, who was Duke’s best big man a year ago and finished with 6.9 rebounds a night.

Ideally, Marshall Plumlee would provide some help off the bench in the rebounding department, and Winslow will contribute on the glass thanks to the same length and athleticism that help him as a lockdown defender.

The defense will also naturally improve with better rebounding because those easy second-chance opportunities will fade away.

Early-Season Performance

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Duke will challenge itself this year in the nonconference portion of its schedule with showdowns against Michigan State, Temple, Connecticut and Wisconsin. What’s more, not a single one of those games will take place in the friendly confines of Cameron.

That may be a problem with so many inexperienced freshmen.

We are not suggesting that the Blue Devils have to enter ACC play with an undefeated mark, but these games will be critical in terms of building confidence and preparing for conference play.

Duke will not be the same team in March as it is in November and December, but it also cannot afford to lose multiple blowout contests against some of the nation’s best teams.

Elsa/Getty Images

The freshmen need some positive experiences in raucous environments before starting ACC play.

Fortunately, Krzyzewski has some battle-tested leaders on this young roster. He suggested as much recently, via The Herald-Sun:

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As a team and as a staff, we could not be happier to have Quinn [Cook] and Amile [Jefferson] as our co-captains. They’re two veterans, returning starters. They know us, they know what we want to accomplish and their personalities just fit in so perfectly with the development of teamwork on our team. We’re very excited about having them as captains. 

"

If Duke picks up a couple of impressive nonconference wins, it will prove beneficial for seeding purposes come Selection Sunday. Battling with the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan State and the defending champion Connecticut will also set the stage for a formidable conference run from a confidence standpoint.

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