Week 5 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Mid-Week Betting Odds and Lines

If the recent past is any indication, wallets and purses are set to be victimized once again now that it is time to send in some Week 5 NFL picks on the latest Vegas offerings.

Bettors will notice right off the bat that only two contests feature a favorite with a line in the double digits. For good reason, too, given the volatile nature of spreads so far this year.

Even those major lines should be met with a vast amount of skepticism. Not only are both divisional bouts, which are always unpredictable at best, but the underdogs—Minnesota and Tampa Bay—broke in new quarterbacks a week ago to great success.

In fact, no contest seems a sure thing. Here is the full lineup, followed by perhaps the lone matchups bettors should feel comfortable with in comparison to the rest of the slate. For what it is worth.

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Minnesota at Green Bay (Thurs., Oct. 2)	GB (-10)	Green Bay	Teddy Bridgewater or not, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders and won't be stopped at home.
Chicago at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Chicago's defense is downright not talented enough to capitalize on a hobbled Carolina backfield.
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN (-2.5)	Cleveland	Tennessee is arguably the worst team in the league, while Cleveland had a bye week to prepare.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI (-7)	Philadelphia	See analysis below.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG (-4)	NY Giants	Eli Manning and Co. have finally wrapped their brains around the new, efficient offense. Atlanta's defense and offensive line are a mess.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO (-11)	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay looks better with Mike Glennon under center, but few escape New Orleans with a win.
Houston at Dallas	DAL (-4.5)	Dallas	Dallas limps into this one on the defensive side of the ball, but it won't matter much against the Houston offense.
Buffalo at Detroit	DET (-7.5)	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND (-3)	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT (-7)	Pittsburgh	Blake Bortles in his first home NFL start will cause issues, but the Pittsburgh attack is too talented to lose.
Arizona at Denver	DEN (-7)	Denver	See analysis below.
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF (-7)	San Francisco	San Francisco will be able to take advantage of a coaching staff that struggles to implement its best players.
NY Jets at San Diego	SD (-7)	San Diego	Philip Rivers is the hottest player in the league at the moment and will have no issues posting more points than New York's quarterbacks.
Cincinnati at New England	NE (-2.5)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati is the hottest team in the league at the moment and gets a reeling New England club on a short week.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	SEA (-7.5)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. ET, Sept. 30.  

Easiest Picks of the Week 

St. Louis at Philadelphia (-7)

For those bettors who were brave enough to take the dive on Philadelphia last week despite it being a road matchup against San Francisco, Chip Kelly's Eagles are now very much a team that creates some hesitation.

A week removed from a measly three-point victory over Washington, the once-potent offense imploded as Nick Foles tossed two interceptions and Kelly elected to run the ball just 12 times.

The good news is, the Eagles get right tackle Lane Johnson back for the first time since January, which means Todd Herremans gets to kick back inside to guard to potentially shore up a unit that has been perhaps the biggest weak point of all for the team to date.

It helps that the opponent is St. Louis, too. The last time we saw the Rams, the team got 327 passing yards and a 3-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio from Austin Davis, but it shot itself in the foot with eight penalties for 119 yards in an eventual loss to Dallas.

Coming out of a bye, the Rams rank No. 3 overall against the pass with an average of 187.3 yards per game allowed, but Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News offers a reassuring perspective:

This is a Rams defense that was fooled horribly by receiver carries in Week 1 to the tune of 102 yards and a score for Minnesota's Cordarrelle Patterson. Tampa Bay backup running back Bobby Rainey followed with 144 yards on a 6.5 per-carry average. Dallas' DeMarco Murray found 100 yards and a score.

So yes, LeSean McCoy is set to find plenty of success Sunday.

Credit where it is due—Jeff Fisher's team is not simply laying down after the loss to Sam Bradford. Davis deserves a nod for completing 72.3 percent of his passes, even if he has as many touchdowns as interceptions.

But Sunday, expect a humbled Kelly to get back to basics and pound the rock against a weak defense.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Rams 23

Arizona at Denver (-7)

USA TODAY Sports

Two of the NFL's best meet after a week off, which would normally produce a contest bettors avoid like the plague.

Except this one reeks of a predictable result.

To the credit of the Arizona Cardinals, the team has used the power of the opposition as a way to avoid complacency during a rest period.

“It’s a good thing that we’re playing against Denver because if you’re playing against a team that ain’t doing so well, you’ll be lollygagging into the week,” linebacker Larry Foote said, per Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com. “But since we’re playing a high opponent at their place, that juice is already going. Guys know it.”

Arizona is one of the lone undefeated teams in the league, but sooner or later, the absence of quarterback Carson Palmer will come back to haunt the team.

Drew Stanton was able to throw for 244 yards and two scores as the Cardinals survived San Francisco before the bye, but a shootout on the road with one Peyton Manning is a different beast entirely. According to ESPN's Ed Werder, Palmer's nerve issue continues to be a major detriment:

Even if Palmer takes the field, a nerve issue will limit his arm strength, meaning a shaky Denver secondary can dial in on the short and intermediate routes with confidence and lean on a top-12 rush defense to limit Arizona's ability to put points on the board.

It would be remiss to not point out that Denver lost before the bye, but it can be forgiven as few teams go to Seattle and look great. Manning still threw for more than 300 yards and on the year has 814 yards and eight touchdowns to a single interception in just three games.

A healthy Palmer was not a safe bet in a quarterback duel complemented with top-tier run defenses, so a hobbled Palmer or Stanton is not a safe route to take against Manning. Especially when Manning has had an extra week of prep time to digest everything headed his way.

Prediction: Broncos 28, Cardinals 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Oakland and Miami on bye.