NFL Week 4 Picks

With Week 4 of the NFL season underway—commenced with the New York Giants 45-14 drubbing over the Washington Redskins—it's time to make some picks.

After this week's slate of games, 26 teams will reach the quarter-pole of the NFL season. Though there is certainly plenty of time to recover from a slow start, teams such as the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints know they can ill afford to fall to 1-3 in their competitive divisions.

Still, 26 of the league's 32 teams are either 2-1 or 1-2, which makes for an exciting weekend in which the best of the best hope to separate themselves from the pack.

Let's take a look at the 12 remaining games.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

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Will C.J. run roughshod over Houston's D?

Sunday's early games kick off with a clash between two teams that surprisingly sit at 2-1. Though both were handled with ease in Week 3 losses, one team will exit Week 4 with a 3-1 record that puts them among early AFC playoff contenders.

This game features a well-known reunion between familiar faces. Bills defensive end Mario Williams returns to Houston for the first time since leaving in free agency, and Houston quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gets his first chance at revenge against the Bills.

Though these storylines are great, we're more concerned with the game on the field. 

Buffalo's offensive line showed serious weakness against San Diego and has to deal with J.J. Watt and company this week. Expect the Bills to run heavily on Houston's 31st-ranked rushing defense in terms of yards per carry. In doing so, they'll try to keep EJ Manuel upright and work some play-action passing into the game, taking advantage of their arsenal of weapons at the skill positions.

On the other side of the coin, look for the Texans to try to exploit the Bills through the air. Wide receivers Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are a miserable matchup for any secondary, and the Bills certainly have shown they are beatable in that area.

Ultimately, I think the Bills prove a tough foe for Houston. Buffalo's run defense has been very stout, and I don't feel good about Fitzpatrick having to win the game with his arm.

Prediction: Bills

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

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R-E-L-A-X, Packers fans.

It's hard to believe, but the Green Bay Packers find themselves in dangerous territory in Week 4. A loss to divisional foes in Chicago will put them at 1-3 and in a very tenuous spot in the NFC playoff race. Fans will be much more likely to adhere to Aaron Rodgers' advice to relax if the offense wakes up on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Bears have rebounded from a disappointing Week 1 loss by showing serious character in victories over the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. The pass rush appears to be improved behind Willie Young's four sacks, while rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller is the talk of the league with three interceptions.

To me, this game comes down to a battle between the Green Bay offensive line and Chicago defensive line. If Rodgers can stand up and Eddie Lacy can find room, the Packers will win this game.

If one goes by the numbers, it's Chicago's game to lose. Even more so, the game will be played in the hostile confines of Soldier Field.

My reasoning may be flimsy, but I'm unwilling to believe that Green Bay will fold this early in the season. However, Rodgers is still one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL.

Prediction: Packers                                                      

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

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Expect a monster day from Andrew Luck.

After Week 1, the Tennessee Titans became a very popular pick as an AFC dark-horse contender. A strong defense and efficient offense looked to be enough to make some noise within the weak AFC South. Since then, things have come crashing down.

The Indianapolis Colts sit at 1-2, but they have only fallen to the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles before throttling the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3.

Fact: Andrew Luck and company are going to put up the points.

It didn't look great for Tennessee when Jake Locker was starting, but now it's journeyman Charlie Whitehurst and his career 54.2 percent completion percentage.

The real question for me is not who will win the game, but rather when does Zach Mettenberger get his chance and seize the starting job for good?

Prediction: Colts

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens

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Steve Smith will bring "blood and guts" against his old team.

In one of the few must-see games of the weekend, NFC and AFC powers collide. And yes, I've heard that Steve Smith will be playing his former team.

More important than the off-field stuff is the impact Smith has had on the field. Playing opposite downfield threat Torrey Smith, the savvy veteran has established himself as an extremely reliable possession receiver for Joe Flacco. The combination has proved to be lethal thus far, and I expect it to continue.

On the other side of the coin, Carolina's offense has been unlucky with injuries. Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert both are out for the game, while Cam Newton has been fighting through a pesky rib injury all year. DeAngelo Williams will have to make an impact running the ball on Sunday. Otherwise, Kelvin Benjamin will get doubled, and the blitz will tee off on Newton.

I expect Carolina's stout defense to keep this one close, but I won't be betting against Smith, who would almost certainly make me feel stupid for doing so.

Prediction: Ravens

Detroit Lions at New York Jets

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DeAndre Levy leads a fearsome Detroit defense.

This matchup features two very stout defensive fronts that will make running the ball very difficult. 

The Lions will have to look to the air to defeat the New York Jets, but I don't think you'll have to tell them twice. Matthew Stafford will look to his ridiculous amount of weapons early and often, targeting a beleaguered Jets secondary. The Lions won't be able to run, but expect Detroit to pepper New York with short passes to get Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in space.

Meanwhile, Geno Smith is going to need to take care of the ball. Detroit's defense is much better than in the past, including a secondary that is finally getting competent cornerback play from the likes of Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis. Additionally, if you don't already, you need to know linebacker DeAndre Levy's name.

I think the Jets will put up a significant fight, but they ultimately will fail to keep up with the Detroit offense.

Prediction: Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers

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Le'Veon Bell will run all over Tampa Bay.

It's probably not fair for me to make such a snap judgment on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—they'll get much better quarterback play from Mike Glennon, who should've been the starter all along—but they are not going to win in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are back to their winning formula: running over opponents and getting timely downfield passing. With awful secondary play and without All-Pro defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, I don't see Tampa Bay stopping them.

The Steelers defense is very banged up and will look vulnerable with Glennon's ability to get the ball to his massive receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Still, his offensive line is poor, and we've yet to see the Doug Martin who torched the Oakland Raiders two years ago.

This one's an easy call.

Prediction: Steelers

Miami Dolphins "AT" Oakland Raiders in London

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The Raiders D will eat up Miami's offense.

Maybe potential England fans would like American football if we sent them a good game one of these years. This year, they get the 0-3 Raiders and 1-2 Dolphins.

Both teams have shown the ability to rush the passer, and that will make life even more difficult for the likes of Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill. Cameron Wake is still one of the best in the game for Miami, and it won't be long before we see Oakland's Khalil Mack appearing in Pro Bowls.

Still, this game has the potential to be ugly. I'm talking 13-9 kind of ugly. In a game that features two sputtering offenses, anything could happen.

Given all the drama surrounding Miami after their debacle against Kansas City, I'm inclined to go with the Raiders, who gave the Patriots a run for their money.

Prediction: Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers

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Rivers and Brown will have their way with the Jags.

This isn't going to be pretty.

Going into the season, I thought Jacksonville was going to be that scrappy team that managed to play everyone tough but ultimately go 5-11. Right now, I just hope that they don't ruin Blake Bortles.

The Jaguars have allowed an obscene 17.0 sacks through three weeks. Though Bortles' being mobile will certainly help, I still think he'll be spending a lot of time on the ground courtesy of the likes of Dwight Freeney and Jeremiah Attaochu.

Philip Rivers, for my money, is the league's MVP through Week 3 and will continue to roll by terrorizing the Jacksonville defense.

Prediction: Chargers

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

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It's "Teddy Time" in Minnesota.

After three weeks, the Atlanta Falcons sit at 2-1, and the Minnesota Vikings sit at 1-2. I'm not sure if I buy either of those records as indicative of how their respective seasons will play out.

For what it's worth, I don't think the Falcons are playing a sustainable brand of football. They are the 17th-ranked defense in terms of yards per carry and 24th-ranked in passing yards per game. They beat New Orleans in a shootout but were shut down by an elite defense in Cincinnati—we won't even touch on the Bucs game.

On the other side of the coin, I'm a big believer in Teddy Bridgewater, and I think he will find much more success in Norv Turner's offense than Matt Cassel. Everyone hates the "he's a gamer" rhetoric, but it rings true for Bridgewater. I believe that Minnesota will score enough points to stay in the game in its own house.

On defense, Minnesota has the 12th-ranked pass defense. Xavier Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn are an underrated cornerback pairing, and Harrison Smith has the looks of a Pro Bowl safety in Mike Zimmer's defensive scheme.

Add that to a potent a stout ninth-ranked run defense, and I think you have Week 4's upset special.

Prediction: Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

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Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis may prove to be too much.

This is your game of the week. The 3-0 Eagles head to San Francisco to face a 49ers group that is already backed into a corner in the brutal NFC West. My advice: don't bet against Harbaugh's group.

To me, this matchup looks like the magic elixir that will wake up the sleeping giant 49ers. The Eagles defense has looked very porous through the air, surrendering 280 yards per game, which is good enough for 30th in the league. The 49ers have struggled through the air thus far, but there are too many quality pass-catchers for that to continue.

While the Eagles have squeaked out victories over Washington and Indianapolis, the 49ers have lost to Arizona and Chicago. I see a battle-tested 49ers on their own turf ready to break out against a bad defense and an Eagles team that has played three horrendous defenses. 

Prediction: 49ers

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

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I'm a little bit concerned about the New Orleans Saints. It's early in the season, but I'm shocked that a defense featuring Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro at safety is 29th in pass defense. It's doing well against the run, but it also hasn't faced the rushing force that is DeMarco Murray.

Behind arguably the NFL's best offensive line, Murray has proven unstoppable through three games, carrying a Dallas Cowboys team that was left for dead after Week 1 to a 2-1 record. It hasn't looked pretty, but Dallas is dangerous.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been better than anticipated, albeit not great. It faces an offense that continually ranks among the league's elite. It is no different this year in New Orleans, ranking fifth in passing and sixth in rushing.

I expect a very close game, and I truly believe it could go either way, but I'm putting my money on New Orleans to get its act together on defense enough to escape Dallas at 2-2.

Prediction: Saints

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

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If I'm New England, I'm very nervous about this Monday Night Football matchup. Not only is Arrowhead Stadium one of the league's toughest places to play but the Chiefs also feature a pass rush that could cause problems all day long.

Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe are going to be a nightmare for Tom Brady, and they will almost assuredly keep this game much closer than New England would like it to be. The key for the Patriots will be to establish the running game in order to tire out a stout front and help Tom Brady stay upright.

Though recent years have featured a weak defensive unit in New England, this year is way different. The Patriots own the No. 1 pass defense and a linebacker group that ranks among the league's elite with Jamie Collins, Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower. Expect the Chiefs offense to be outmatched from the get-go.

This one may be low-scoring and close, but I have a tough time betting against coach Bill Belichick.

Prediction: Patriots