NFL Week 4: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action
The never-ending drudgery of the offseason seems so long ago, doesn't it?
As hard as it can be to believe we've reached the quarter pole of the 2014 NFL season, the nonstop news machine that the NFL has become makes it seem as if the beginning of the season was months ago. Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, drug testing, HGH, DUIs and independent investigators—these things are important, but they impose a weightiness that runs counter to why fans watch NFL football in the first place.
Comedy Central's South Park, The Daily Show and The Colbert Report have all weighed in, bringing some levity to the serious developments that are besieging the game.
Yet, here we are. Three games in, and some teams are already on their bye week and tinkering with what's worked and overhauling what hasn't. Others are mired at 0-3 or 1-2 and trying to turn things around. Still others, at 2-1 or 3-0, are trying to remain focused and not look past even the lowliest of opponents.
Take a break.
Take a break from all of the important, newsworthy but altogether tiring storylines around the NFL that have nothing to do with football. Remember why you love this sport in the first place. Set your fantasy lineups. Kick back with a beverage and salty snack of your choice and enjoy this weekend of football.
But first...here is everything you need to know about Sunday's slate of games.
Biggest Questions
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Can the Green Bay Packers Fix What's Ailing Them?
The Packers have been a pretty terrible team this season, and the Chicago Bears might not be the best team against whom to try to right the ship.
In Week 3, it was almost as if the oft-maligned Detroit Lions were trying to hand the game to Aaron Rodgers and company over and over again, but Green Bay just kept handing it right back.
The offense: 28th in the league. The defense: a little better at 19th. But not every quarterback is going to gift wrap things like Matthew Stafford tried to do in Detroit.
Then again, Jay Cutler might.
The Packers are built to stop traditional dropback passers like Stafford and Cutler. If Julius Peppers can continue to pin his ears back, even the improved Bears offensive line might not be able to stop him. Forcing Cutler into a few poor decisions might be just the thing to help the Packers regain some of their old form.
Will Baltimore Ravens Receiver Steve Smith Get "Revenge" on His Old Team?
Blood and guts.
That's what we were promised by Smith on WFNZ in Charlotte (via Pro Football Talk) when asked about facing his former team. Now, Smith was (probably) joking, but the comment by the former Panthers reveals that the chip on his shoulder is clearly a boulder where Carolina is concerned.
He loves his former team. He just wants them to pay for turning their backs on him.
As good as Smith has been with the Ravens this season (read: very good), expect something a little extra against a Carolina team that doesn't have the personnel to stop him.
Are the Philadelphia Eagles Going to Run Out of Mojo?
For three weeks in a row, the Eagles have dug their own grave...and then dug themselves out of it.
The San Francisco 49ers are built to be able to drive that final nail into the coffin, though that hasn't been what has happened this season.
With running backs Frank Gore and now Carlos Hyde, as well as a quarterback in Colin Kaepernick who has the tools to play much better with a lead than from behind, the 49ers could slam the door on Philadelphia's comeback chances if the Eagles aren't careful.
The Eagles are a better team than they've looked the past three weeks—a pretty remarkable thing to say about a 3-0 team. They just need to put together a whole-game effort to prove it.
Odds and Ends
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- To find out which games are available in your area, check out these NFL coverage maps, via 506 Sports.
- Football Zebras provides a look at which referees are working each game so you can tailor your insults accordingly.
- Can't make it to a TV? SiriusXM covers every single game. Here's the lineup.
- If you don't have satellite radio, check to see if Westwood One has a game playing in your area.
- Whether or not you can watch your favorite team, make sure you have the Bleacher Report Team Stream app for the latest in news, fantasy football updates and highlights.
Important Stats and Trends to Know
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—Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell has averaged more than five yards per carry in every single game this season (5.9 YPC on the year) after not doing so in any game his rookie season (3.5 YPC). While a regression to the mean is likely, Bell is clearly a different back after shedding weight over the offseason, and the matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20th in the league at 125.3 rushing yards allowed per game) is favorable.
—Much has been made of Cleveland Browns cornerback Joe Haden's struggles so far this season, but with the Browns on a bye week, we can focus on Green Bay Packers cornerback Sam Shields. After Haden's league-worst 155.3 passer rating allowed, Shields is allowing a terrible 153.3, according to Pro Football Focus (paid link). Not only has Shields not registered an interception on the season, he's allowed 10 of 14 passes thrown his way to be completed and has allowed as many touchdowns (two) as passes he's defensed. That's not ideal against a potent Chicago Bears passing attack.
—The Tennessee Titans have not beaten the Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis since 2007 when a playoff-bound Colts team sat Peyton Manning for much of the game and allowed Jim Sorgi to go 11-of-24 for only 64 yards. Tony Dungy was head coach of the Colts at the time, and it was the last regular season game in the RCA Dome before it was demolished.
—Dallas Cowboys pass-rushers Tyrone Crawford and Jeremy Mincey have both registered eight QB hurries on the season without registering a sack, according to PFF (paid link). Crawford has even said, "It's hard to even look in the mirror in the morning," via The Dallas Morning News. Meanwhile, New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees has only been sacked three times this season.
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Game of the Day
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Who: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
When: 8:30 p.m. ET (Sunday Night Football)
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
This has got to be one of the scariest games on the schedule for those who pick games (like me) or those who bet on them.
The Saints, on paper, are one of the best teams in the league but have failed to put together the pieces on both defense and in their vertical passing game. The Cowboys likely can't stop the Saints from scoring either, so this one has "take the over" written all over it.
Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is ridiculously hard to read in games like this.
On the one hand, Romo could have huge numbers against New Orleans—that's likely regardless of the outcome. Moreover, Romo is actually statistically more likely to throw the game-winning touchdown (ranked eighth all time, according to Pro Football Reference) than throw the mind-numbing interception.
Yet, we can't help but think of the Dallas QB melting under the spotlight time and time again.
Bleacher Report's NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon drew out some potential long-term ramifications for this game as well, noting that the Cowboys tend to lose against the league's better squads:
"If head coach Jason Garrett is going to save his job, Romo is going to start paying off financially and the Cowboys as a whole are going to start delivering on the field in order to reward the league's largest fanbase for its loyalty, they'll have to start by beating good teams.
"
I'm picking the Cowboys here at home, but this could likely be coin-flip territory and a fantastic game to watch.
I'll be covering the game from AT&T Stadium. Follow me on Twitter @Schottey for live updates before, during and after the game.
Rest of the Slate (FOX)
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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET)
The Chicago Bears got their groove back in a Week 3 victory over the New York Jets. The Packers will be looking to do much the same this week, but their defense will have to contend with more targets than they have bodies to match up with.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (1 p.m. ET)
The Lions present a lot of matchup issues for the Jets both on offense (Calvin Johnson, anyone?) and defense (a dominant Detroit defensive line). Still, while it might be easy to root for or pick one of these teams, it's near-impossible to trust either can get the job done at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (1 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers are still looking for their first win of the season, and that means the pressure is likely on backup quarterback Mike Glennon. Against the Steelers pass-rushers and with the Buccaneers' terrible protection issues, that might not be so easy.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (4:25 p.m. ET)
It's now the Teddy Bridgewater era in Minnesota, and the Falcons walk into the Vikings' new home stadium after registering one of the most dominant performances in recent memory, a 56-14 Week 3 shellacking of the Buccaneers. Can the Vikings' rookie QB find a way to win against the surging Falcons? Or, will Matt Ryan and company simply pick up that much more momentum?
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET)
Though the 49ers are at 1-2 (0-1 at home), they come into the week with the NFL's No. 6 defense against the run. Eagles running back LeSean McCoy is coming off of a rough 19-carry, 22-yard performance that actually might have been worse than the stat line.
How that matchup plays out will largely determine the final score.
Rest of the Slate (CBS)
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Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. ET)
I can't help but think back to how both of these teams played against the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this year.
The Ravens crushed the Steelers—physically and spiritually. By the end of the game, Steelers were puking on the field and the Ravens were running down their metaphorical throats simply because they could. Then, the Panthers offense decided to completely eschew the run while Carolina let the Steelers running game tee off on its vaunted defense.
I'm going to take the team with the ability to impose their will every day of the week and twice this Sunday.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET)
Featuring two teams who started strong and were exposed in Week 3, this matchup will come down to how effective each team's pass protection holds up and how each quarterback responds when it doesn't. Look forward to strength on strength as the Texans rushing attack butts up against a good Bills run defense.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET)
Titans quarterback Jake Locker has been terrible this season and might not even play, so it's up to the Titans' running game and interior blocking to get the job done. In the end, this will likely be decided by Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and a Titans defense that is allowing only 170 passing yards per game (second in the NFL).
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders (1 p.m. ET)
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr makes a ton of big-time throws and is well on his way to garnering a lot of cred as one of the top quarterbacks from the 2014 draft class. That said, if the Raiders can't win on the East Coast, how are they supposed to win in England? The answer: if, somehow, Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin finds a way to mess even this up.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET)
The Chargers are at home with a top-10 defense and the 12th-ranked passing offense. The Jaguars have been just terrible. I look forward to seeing rookie Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, but I hope the team can keep him upright.
Key Matchups
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Julius Peppers (LB, Green Bay Packers) vs. Chicago Bears Offensive Tackles
Peppers moves around quite a bit in the Packers pass-rush sets, but there isn't a whole lot of matchup daylight when it comes to Jermon Bushrod and Jordan Mills. As already mentioned, Peppers feasted against a traditional passer last week opposite the Lions' Matthew Stafford, but he also got to face some pretty paltry backup linemen. Getting to Jay Cutler will be a much bigger test.
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Minnesota Vikings) vs. William Moore (S, Atlanta Falcons)
Normally, I'd match up a receiver with the cornerback who will likely cover him, but Patterson is going to find the ball in his hands in a number of ways. It will be up to Moore, who's had some issues with illegal hits, to shut Patterson down before he gets rolling, as giving the second-year talent opportunities to get yardage after the catch or on designed runs would be unadvisable.
Geno Smith (QB, New York Jets) vs. DeAndre Levy (LB, Detroit Lions)
Smith has made strides as a passer this season, but the Lions defense just shut down Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. So the second-year Smith will need to be at his best. One of his strengths this season—even though he's not an elite athlete—has been picking up important yardage or extending plays with his legs. Levy will be in charge of stopping him in his tracks.
Toby Gerhart (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars) vs. San Diego Chargers Run Defense
On the last slide, I mentioned Bortles and the Chargers' surprising defense this season. A big part of neutralizing the San Diego defense (and, frankly, the Chargers' passing attack) will be Gerhart. The Stanford product was supposed to be a workhorse this season, and hopefully a trip to the West Coast will help him get back on track.
For an X's and O's look at even more matchups, take a seat in Matt Bowen's film study.
Injury Report
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Calvin Johnson (WR, Detroit Lions)—Questionable, Ankle
Johnson practiced on Friday and that almost certainly means he's playing unless there's some major setback in pre-game warmups. If he goes, he's a fantastic matchup (real life and fantasy) against the Jets' defensive backs.
Clay Matthews (LB, Green Bay Packers)—Probable, Groin
Remember how the Bears' tackles would be a test for Peppers? Getting Matthews back is almost like grading on a curve. It allows the Packers to rush without worrying about double-teams.
Dri Archer (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers)—Probable, Ankle
Though Archer is only a rookie, the explosive back has a chance to make a real impact on the NFL once he gets onto the field. He looked pretty fantastic in the preseason and even had some reps with the first team. He can be the lightning to Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount's "Thunder and Thunder" tandem.
Jake Locker (QB, Tennessee Titans)—Questionable, Wrist
I mentioned Locker on the last slide, but this injury could have larger ramifications if backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst impresses in relief—not that Whitehurst could take over long-term, but more along the lines of making a future move away from Locker a lot easier.
Bleacher Report Expert Predictions
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Check out the Bleacher Report writers' picks and predictions for the week ahead.
B/R's best were 11-5 with their consensus picks last week and National Lead Writer Matt Bowen went a site-best 13-3. Former NFL QB Chris Simms continues to lead the B/R field at 32-16 for the season. Think you can beat our picks? Leave yours in the comments below.
To follow how the B/R writers stack up against writers from across the web, check out Pickwatch.com.
Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.
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