Can Bears, Packers Turn Around Struggling Run Games During Division Showdown?

Two of the NFL's most prolific offenses from a year ago have been stuck in neutral to start 2014, and the struggles both have had running the football are at least partly to blame. 

Through three weeks, the Chicago Bears find themselves ranked dead last in rushing yards and 28th in yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are ranked 27th in rushing yards and 24th in yards per carry. Packers fullback John Kuhn has the only rushing touchdown between the two teams this season.

The inefficiencies on the ground haven't hurt the Bears as badly as the Packers. While Chicago is averaging 25.0 points per game, or roughly three points fewer than last season, Green Bay's lacking run production has been a main culprit for the Packers' sharp eight-point drop in scoring from 2013. 

Both offenses should have a chance to reestablish the running game Sunday, especially if the results from two games played between the age-old rivals in 2013 are any indication. 

	CHI Att	CHI Yards	Forte Rush Yards
	GB Att	GB Yards	Lacy Rush Yards
CHI at GB	33	171	125
GB at CHI	24	121	110
CHI at GB	29	199	150
GB at CHI	34	160	66

A season ago, the Bears averaged 146 rushing yards, or over 30 yards more than Chicago's season average, over two meetings with Green Bay. On the other side, the Packers rushed for 359 yards, or almost 180 a contest and nearly 50 more than the offense's 2013 average. 

The two run defenses are both ranked in the bottom seven of the NFL to start 2014. The Bears are allowing 144.7 rushing yards a game (26th), while the Packers are ranked 30th at 156 yards allowed per contest.

Bottom line: If the Bears and Packers continue to struggle running the football Sunday, a problem that can be safely called a blip on the radar now will have to be considered a potential season-long issue. 

Each side's Pro Bowl running back is still trying to get going.  

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Green Bay's Eddie Lacy won Offensive Rookie of the Year and was named a second-team All-Pro after revolutionizing the Packers' running game last season. He rushed for almost 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Green Bay finished 2013 ranked sixth in rushing yards and fourth in yards per carry. 

Through three games, Lacy is on pace for just 603 rushing yards. His 3.1-yard average is ranked 41st out of 49 qualified running backs, and he's one of only seven running backs lacking a rushing touchdown or 20-yard run (minimum 25 attempts).

"Eddie needs to play better," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday, via the team's official site. 

His game log in 2014 brings back memories of Brandon Jackson and Alex Green: 

	Att	Yards	Avg	Long	TD
at SEA	12	34	2.8	15	0
vs. NYJ	13	43	3.3	10	0
at DET	11	36	3.3	17	0
TOTAL	36	113	3.1	17	0

Bears running back Matt Forte, a Pro Bowler in 2011 and 2013, hasn't been much better. 

After rushing for 82 yards in the season opener against the Buffalo Bills, Forte has gained just 54 yards on his last 25 carries. His longest rush since Week 1 is just eight yards. 

Forte's yard-per-carry average sits at 3.2, or only fractionally better than Lacy's 3.1. Like Lacy, he also lacks a rush over 20 yards (long of 14). A 1,339-yard rusher a year ago, Forte is on pace for just 725 in 2014. 

Below is Forte's ugly game log:

	Att	Yards	Avg	Long	TD
vs. BUF	17	82	4.8	14	0
at SF	12	21	1.8	7	0
at NYJ	13	33	2.5	8	0
TOTAL	42	136	3.2	14	0

However, every set of statistics needs context. This rule is especially true for both running backs. 

Lacy has faced the Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets and Detroit Lions to start the season. The Jets and Lions are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 against the run, respectively, while the Seahawks are fifth. The three teams have combined to allow just 63.7 rushing yards per game this season, so Lacy and the Packers certainly aren't the first to struggle against these fronts. 

The same argument can be made for Forte, who has faced the Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Jets. The Bills are ranked sixth against the run, while the 49ers are seventh. Combined, the three are allowing 74.8 rushing yards a game in 2014. 

Another important point: Neither team is running the football at a high percentage. 

The Bears are calling run plays roughly nine percent less than last season. Chicago has never been a high-volume run team under head coach Marc Trestman—the Bears ran on just 39.9 percent of plays last season—but the offense is currently down to a league-low 30.4 percent to start 2014. 

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The Packers have also suffered through a dip. While McCarthy has attempted to stay with the run in games against Seattle and Detroit, the Packers are still down roughly six percent in run calls this season. In 2013, Green Bay ran the football on 43.2 percent of plays, which ranked 11th overall. That number is down to 36.9 now. Only four teams have run on a lesser percentage of offensive snaps. 

As a result, neither offense has been very sharp, consistent or productive. 

The Bears are still scoring, but the offense is ranked 27th in total yards and 25th in yards per play. A defense ranked first in takeaways (13) and the efficiency of Jay Cutler (eight touchdowns, two interceptions) have helped balance the missing element of the run game. 

The Packers haven't found their elixir. Green Bay is 27th in points, 28th in yards, 24th in first downs and 21st in passing yards. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has routinely faced a four-man pass rush and seven in coverage, and space for receivers has been at a premium. 

Running the football better can help both offenses get back on track Sunday.

The Bears will want to use Forte to stay in manageable down-and-distances, which should help ward off the exotic blitz looks Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers loves to dial up against Cutler. For Green Bay, getting Lacy back on track should assist in pulling defenses out of max coverage looks and providing the likes of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb better opportunities down the field.

The offense that accomplishes more on the ground could very well be the winner of Week 4's showdown in the NFC North. 

That said, any continuation of the struggles running the football Sunday should serve as a harsh dose of reality for both offenses. 

The opportunity to get on track is available. Both the Packers and Bears need to run with it. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2