NFL Picks and Predictions Week 3: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide
I don't know about you, but I'm so damn tired of the off-field drama that's swirled around the National Football League for the last two weeks.
As the captain of #TeamDegenerate (and I'm not just the captain—I'm also a card-carrying member), all I want is for Sunday to get here so I can gamble away my hard-earned money all day long.
Now, before we get to the picks: Where all my haters at? Where they at, where they at (#BeyonceVoice)?
Last week, y'all were all over me for my atrocious Week 1 performance (6-9-1).
Well, I went 10-6 in Week 2. Step down, haters.
(At least for one week.)
After Week 3, I plan on my record being over .500. That means a solid performance is in store.
Here is the Ultimate Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 3, powered by Odds Shark, complete with picks and predictions.
Total Season ATS: 16-16-1 (including Tampa Bay this past Thursday night)
Total Season Best Bets ATS: 6-5 (including Tampa Bay this past Thursday night)
All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.
Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!
Thursday Night Football: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
1 of 17
Final Score: Atlanta 56, Tampa Bay 14 (Falcons cover -6.5)
Ladies and gentlemen, my name is Nick Kostos.
I like women, drinking and gambling.
And I took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to not only cover the spread this past Thursday night in Atlanta against the Falcons, but to win the game outright.
Out of all the bets I've made in my gambling career—and trust me, there have been some doozies (I have a feeling I'd have bet the Washington Generals on the money line over the Harlem Globetrotters if I had been alive back in the day)—this was the worst one.
The Buccaneers were an embarrassment, a disgrace, a mockery and a sham. Coach Lovie Smith sleepwalked through the game like he was auditioning for the titular role in the new Weekend at Bernie's. The defense couldn't tackle if its life depended on it. Quarterback Josh McCown looked like, well, Josh McCown. And that ain't good.
And to make matters worse, I played Tampa Bay +6.5 in the Hilton SuperContest, the second consecutive week that I've started off losing on a hideous Thursday night play (I took Pittsburgh last week).
I have a feeling that when my Vegas proxy saw my Tampa Bay bet, he probably had a good ol' belly laugh and muttered under his breath, "Moron." That's how embarrassing the bet was.
We learned two important lessons this past Thursday night:
1) The Buccaneers stink.
2) I need to stop wagering on Thursday night games.
But let's be honest: As the captain of #TeamDegenerate, I will continue to wager on Thursday night games. My public service to you, dear readers, is to fade my hideous picks until my luck turns around.
You're welcome.
San Diego at Buffalo
2 of 17
Line: San Diego at Buffalo (-2.5)
Both the San Diego Chargers and the Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in each of the first two weeks. But seeing as how there can only be one Highlander (or something like that), we're forced to choose sides between two of NFL's feel-good teams.
And with apologies to fans of the Bills (or Chargers, depending on how you view it), I'm rolling with San Diego.
Yes, I am quite aware that the Chargers are coming off an emotional home win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. And yeah, it's a 10 a.m. PT kickoff for the boys from San Diego, which is problematic given the fact that it takes me about 47 cups of coffee to be truly functional by 10 a.m.
But as is often the case with gambling, this one comes down to trust. In the fourth quarter of a tight game, who would you rather have your hard-earned money on: Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers or Bills quarterback EJ Manuel?
It's not even close.
Manuel has yet to melt down in Chernobyl-like fashion, but rest assured, Bills fans, it's coming.
As for the Chargers, do not sleep on them as a dark-horse Super Bowl candidate in the AFC.
I won't lie: The line of the game is terrifying. I'd feel more confident if it would settle at Bills -3. The prospect of losing by a field goal scares the crap out of me. But I can't let that deter me from making what I believe to be the right pick.
The Chargers will win the game outright.
The Pick: San Diego (+2.5)
Tennessee at Cincinnati
3 of 17
Line: Tennessee at Cincinnati (-6.5)
The line on this game once again proves that Las Vegas is actually Darth Vegas, ready to hit us with a Jedi mind trick at any given time.
There is no universe in which the Cincinnati Bengals should be less than a touchdown favorite at home over the Tennessee Titans. It just doesn't make any sense.
Last week, the Titans made the much-maligned Dallas Cowboys defense look like an amalgamation of the '85 Chicago Bears and '00 Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Jake Locker bumbled and stumbled through an uninspiring performance, and the team looked generally incapable of competing at the professional level.
Meanwhile, the Bengals suffocated the Falcons to move to an impressive 2-0 and have the look and feel of one of the league's best teams.
So why in the world are the Bengals—who are playing at home—favored by less than a touchdown over the Titans?
Imagine Darth Vegas chillin' in his hyperbaric chamber in some back room at the Palazzo. In between placing roulette bets (on black, naturally) in a robotic voice that may or may not resemble James Earl Jones, he is sowing discord among gamblers, causing some to actually think that the Titans will cover this spread.
Oh man. I know the Bengals are the better team, but Vegas has to know something I don't. How could the spread be less than a touchdown? Vegas is BEGGING me to take the Bengals! And you know what that means... Ah, screw it! I'm putting my kid's college tuition on the Titans! There aren't the droids I'm looking for!
Don't make that mistake. Don't fall for Darth Vegas' trap.
The Force is strong with Cincinnati. And with receiver AJ Green looking likely to play, it is the obvious pick.
The Pick: Cincinnati (-6.5)
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Baltimore at Cleveland
4 of 17
Line: Baltimore at Cleveland (+1.5)
Sunday's game against the Browns in Cleveland is literally the only current spread in which the Ravens are favored.
Thanks to this expose from ESPN's Don Van Natta and Kevin Van Valkenberg (they'd make a great WWE tag team: The Van Brothers), the Ravens are locked into the role of underdog just about everywhere.
But thankfully for the Ravens, Sunday's game against the Browns will be played on the field, not in a courtroom or, worse, on Twitter (the horror!).
Baltimore is the better team. The Browns deserve credit for their stirring, come-from-behind victory last week over the New Orleans Saints, but that ain't happening again. No way, no how.
When Commissioner Goodell filibustered at his Friday press conference and said "everything is on the table" more times than Hodor says "Hodor!" there were two notable exceptions to his much-repeated phrase:
1) Answering questions directly. That was certainly not on the table.
2) The Browns beating the Ravens this Sunday.
The Pick: Baltimore (-1.5)
Green Bay at Detroit
5 of 17
Line: Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5)
For those of you who will vociferously argue for the Detroit Lions in the comments, I beg of you: Spare me. I don't give a damn about the Lions' high-powered offense. I couldn't care less that they're playing at home. It doesn't make a difference to me that the spread is less than three points, lending value to the home squad.
The bottom line is this: In a clutch situation, I will take Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers over Detroit Lions coach Jim Caldwell and quarterback Matthew Stafford all day, every (pronounced "err") day. Ya dig?
Even if I end up losing, I know in my heart of hearts that I've made the right decision in backing Green Bay. I can ultimately forgive myself if the Packers don't cover, knowing I wagered on the better coach and the better quarterback. I'd never be able to rationalize taking the Lions, even if I won.
To those of you who like Detroit, I say to thee: Good luck. In the fourth quarter of a close game, you're going to be absolutely terrified when Rodgers has the ball in his hands.
And in the fourth quarter of a close game, you're going to be absolutely terrified when Stafford has the ball in his hands.
I don't need that stress and aggravation. I work hard enough already.
Give me the Packers with confidence.
The Pick: Green Bay (+2.5)
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
6 of 17
Line: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+7)
I've had enough of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I picked the Jaguars in Week 1 (+10.5 in Philadelphia), only to watch them allow 34 unanswered points in a Philadelphia Eagles romp.
I rolled with the Jaguars in Week 2 (+6 in Washington), only to watch their defense make Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins look like Mark Rypien in Super Bowl XXVI.
Wake me up when the team inserts electric rookie Blake Bortles into the starting lineup.
Until that happens, I'm going against Jacksonville.
Seriously, the Jaguars keeping Bortles tethered to the bench in favor of the brutal Chad Henne would be like dating a girl with a crappy personality while turning away the beautiful one who won't hassle you over what kind of shoes you wear or whether or not your shirt is tucked in OR HOW MUCH YOU SPEND ON THE BOTTLE OF WINE TO BRING TO HER PARENTS' HOUSE OR...OK, I'm going to stop now.
Like I said, until Bortles is under center, I'm done wagering on Jacksonville.
Especially against a desperate 0-2 Colts team that employs the great Andrew Luck at quarterback.
The Pick: Indianapolis (-7)
Oakland at New England
7 of 17
Line: Oakland at New England (-15)
When I was about six years old, I remember going to a buddy's house on Halloween, and his mother decided it was a good idea for us to watch Nightmare on Elm Street. I would never name names, but Sean Hart, your mom really dropped the ball with that decision.
I was scared to death of Freddy Krueger, and it was the kind of terror that can only be experienced by a hyperactive child with a vivid imagination.
Now I'm an adult, and things like paying taxes and hobnobbing with morons terrify me much more than a disfigured dead guy with a Fugazi Wolverine glove.
But there is still one phenomenon that inspires fear in yours truly the same way that Freddy Krueger did over two decades ago.
The backdoor cover.
Watching a team you bet on give up a backdoor cover is like watching a three-hour horror movie, except the bad guys win at the end. The perfect example of this was in Week 1, when the Denver Broncos (-7.5 against the Indianapolis Colts) yakked away a big lead and ended up winning by only seven. I still bear the emotional scars from that outcome.
And the worst part of the backdoor cover is that you can see it coming from a mile away. Much like in the horror movie when you're screaming at the teenage girl to NOT enter the ridiculously creepy house, you end up yelling at the TV for the coach (usually John Fox) to not run the ball three times with the lead when there's still a spread to be covered.
I give you that to give you this: There's no doubt the New England Patriots will dominate the Oakland Raiders. New England represents the biggest survivor pool lock of the millennium. There's a better chance of me dating Jennifer Lopez than Derek Carr outdueling Tom Brady in Foxborough.
But the prospect of the backdoor cover looms large. The Raiders have moved the football in garbage time each of the last two weeks, which tells me all I need to know.
In the fourth quarter, the Patriots will hold a 35-14 lead. The crowd will be filing out in typical Boston fashion (hey, I'm from New York, what do you expect?). But Carr will suddenly find his groove and start hitting passes.
And Patriot bettors will start to sweat.
I have no desire to relive that fateful Halloween night some two decades ago. I'm done with horror movies.
I'll take the Raiders to cover the spread.
God help me.
The Pick: Oakland (+14.5)
Minnesota at New Orleans
8 of 17
Line: Minnesota at New Orleans (-10)
Back in the mid-1980s, the Miami Dolphins employed the Marks: Duper and Clayton. Both receivers were tremendous.
In the movie Office Space, the Bobs hit the scene as one of the funniest duos in movie history.
The diametric opposite of the Marks and the Bobs is the Matts: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel and running back Matt Asiata.
If you think Cassel and Asiata are going to cover a 10-point spread in the Superdome against the 0-2 and desperate New Orleans Saints, I have an island in the Caribbean to sell you.
This will be a classic Saints blowout, with coach Sean Payton running up the score as if the team's BCS ranking depended on it.
New Orleans is a Super Bowl contender in a must-win game. Minnesota is depending on the Matts.
You do the math.
The Pick: New Orleans (-10)
Houston at NY Giants
9 of 17
Line: Houston at NY Giants (PK)
All week, the line for this game has held constant at Houston Texans -2.5. But a late rush of money on the New York Giants now has the line at a pick 'em.
And that brings up this question: Who the hell is wagering his or her hard-earned cash on the sorry-ass New York Giants?
I know, I know: This is the quintessential "back against the wall" game made famous by Big Blue in Tom Coughlin's time as coach. The ol' "nobody believes in us" game. The classic "Eli Manning looks like Billy Joe Tolliver in the first three quarters and then morphs into Joe Montana for the fourth" game.
There's only one problem with that train of thought: Last year, the 0-2 Giants had the proverbial "back against the wall" game in Week 3 against the Carolina Panthers. They lost 38-0 and would go on to start 0-6.
It's over, people. There's no back. There's no wall. And most importantly, there's no talent.
And that means there's no chance for Big Blue.
I just hope the grounds crew at Met Life Stadium has a spatula big enough to peel Manning off the turf after J.J. Watt gets through with him.
The Pick: Houston (PK)
Washington at Philadelphia
10 of 17
Line: Washington at Philadelphia (-6.5)
OK, peeps, this is the deal.
Your boy has zero clue how this game is going to go. I could see anything happening.
I wouldn't be stunned if Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins came out and had a sensational game, leading the Redskins to a close victory (or at least to cover the spread).
And it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the Eagles absolutely rolled and won by double-digits.
So here's my thought process on this game: There's a major difference between Cousins coming off the bench against a hideous Jaguars defense and the Eagles having a week to prepare for him as the starter.
I'll take the Eagles, but I don't feel great about it. I would advise members of #TeamDegenerate to wager their hard-earned money elsewhere.
The Pick: Philadelphia (-6.5)
Dallas at St. Louis
11 of 17
Line: Dallas at St. Louis (+1)
Here's a sentence I guarantee you won't read again for the remainder of the 2014 NFL season: The Dallas Cowboys are favored on the road.
Yeah. That should end well.
The Pick: St. Louis (+1)
San Francisco at Arizona
12 of 17
Line: San Francisco at Arizona (+3)
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton will be the death of me.
You see, I drafted Cardinals receiver Michael Floyd in every single damn fantasy football league I'm participating in this year. I love Floyd's talent and believe he's on pace to become a top-10 receiver.
That is, of course, if Carson Palmer is the one throwing him the ball. But as long as Palmer remains sidelined due to a nerve issue in his right shoulder, Floyd has no chance. Why? Because Stanton literally cannot get him the ball.
If Palmer had started last week's game against the Giants, Arizona would have won by 30 (it won by 11 with Stanton, which says more about how horrendous the Giants are than how well Stanton played). Stanton is a good enough backup to beat crappy teams, but the San Francisco 49ers? Color me skeptical.
49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick played an atrocious game last week against the Bears, turning the ball over as if possessed by the spirit of J.T. O'Sullivan. But he's the man, he's the man, he's the maaaan (#AloeBlaccVoice), and I thoroughly expect a bounce-back performance against an injury-depleted Cardinals defense.
And did I mention Stanton is starting in place of Palmer?
If you want to take Drew Stanton against Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers, be my guest.
I'll take Kaepernick and Co., thank you very much.
And be sure to pound the over on "How many times will Nick Kostos curse at Drew Stanton for misfiring passes intended for Michael Floyd?" The total is currently set at 78.5.
The Pick: San Francisco (-3)
Kansas City at Miami
13 of 17
Line: Kansas City at Miami (-3.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line resembles a MASH unit, leaving quarterback Alex Smith running for his life.
The Miami Dolphins possess a fantastic pass-rushing duo comprised of ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.
This will not end well for Smith and the Chiefs.
Even if Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill can't quite get on track, the Dolphins defense should hold the Chiefs offense in check long enough to preserve a Dolphins victory and cover.
The Pick: Miami (-3.5)
Denver at Seattle
14 of 17
Line: Denver at Seattle (-5)
Peyton Manning, blah blah blah.
Super Bowl rematch, blah blah blah.
High-powered Denver Broncos offense, blah blah blah.
Look, the only thing I care about is this: The Seattle Seahawks are less than a touchdown favorite at home, and the only entity on the planet with a stronger home-field advantage is your significant other at his/her parent's crib.
The Seahawks could host the AFC Pro Bowl roster and I'd take them as long as the spread was under seven points, so I'm all over this one.
And for everyone who will inevitably feel bad for Manning after yet another bulldozing at the hands of the Legion of Boom, just remember that he's going to go home, light a cigar with a $100 bill and rest easy with the knowledge that in Denver, pizza business is good.
The Pick: Seattle (-5)
Sunday Night Football: Pittsburgh at Carolina
15 of 17
Line: Pittsburgh at Carolina (-3.5)
Before the 2014 season kicked off, I loved the Pittsburgh Steelers and hated the Carolina Panthers.
I picked the Steelers to win the AFC North and the Panthers to miss the postseason.
Through two games—as per usual—I look like a schmuck.
The Steelers were horrendous last Thursday night against Baltimore, while the Panthers have been ultra-impressive in their 2-0 start. I just don't see how the Steelers offensive line will be able to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and I'm expecting a big game from Panthers rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who is absolutely the real deal.
The extra half-point scares me (I'd feel a lot more confident if Carolina was -3 instead), but I don't see Pittsburgh winning the game.
And that means I have to take the Panthers.
The Pick: Carolina (-3.5)
Monday Night Football: Chicago at NY Jets
16 of 17
Line: Chicago at NY Jets (+3)
It's not even Monday, and I'm already aggravated about my pick in this contest.
I'm taking the Chicago Bears to not only cover the spread on the road against the New York Jets, but to win the game outright. And I'm already pissed off at the result, which will surely be a Jets victory.
Silly, silly me. Here I am thinking that the Bears offense—led by tough-as-nails quarterback Jay Cutler (and if you don't think Cutler is tough, do yourself a favor and get a clue)—will easily be able to put points on the board through the air on a Jets secondary that might sign you or me to start at cornerback.
When something is that obvious, it usually means the other team will win in blowout fashion.
But I don't care. I'm sticking with my gut. It's early in the season, damn it, and I haven't been burned enough yet.
The Bears are getting three points on the road against the Jets. The Bears are the better team.
The Bears are the pick.
Next sentence: I'm not looking forward to Jets 27, Bears 17.
The Pick: Chicago (+3)
Surefire Locks of the Week
17 of 17
Best Bets of the Week ATS
1.) Seattle (-5 vs. Denver)
2.) Green Bay (+2.5 at Detroit)
3.) San Diego (+2.5 at Buffalo)
4.) Chicago (+3 at NY Jets)
Best "Under" Bets of the Week
1.) Baltimore at Cleveland (under 41.5 points)
2.) San Francisco at Arizona (under 42 points)
3.) Pittsburgh at Carolina (under 42.5 points)
Best "Over" Bets of the Week
1.) Green Bay at Detroit (over 52 points)
2.) Minnesota at New Orleans (over 49 points)
3.) Chicago at NY Jets (over 45.5 points)
Survivor Pick of the Week
New England over Oakland
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")